Venture World 2005 Michael Danaher Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati October 2005
2 Venture World – 2000 IT’S A MAD MAD MAD MAD WORLD
3 Venture World – 2002 WATERWORLD Budget = $175,000,000 Box Office = $88,246,220
4 Venture World – 2005 MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
5 1. The Nasdaq Force Field Continues 2. Valuation Trends 3. Deal Terms 4. Exit Strategies 5. Tilting Towards Asia
6 1. The Nasdaq Force Field Continues
7 The Nasdaq Force Field ContinuesFUND INFLOWS Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq * Annual projectionSource: “Venture Capital Industry Overview,” VentureSource, October 2005 Funds Raised ($B) $18.8*
Fund Formation Roman Numeral Funds Dominate Accidental result of year 2000 venture market
Fund Formation Increased Focus on China and India More geographic funds More talk about Asian strategies
10 So Goes Nasdaq... FUND OUTFLOWS Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq * YTD05 = 1Q05-3Q05 ** Annual projection Source: “Venture Capital Industry Overview,” VentureSource, October 2005 $21.6** Amount Invested ($B) Number of Deals 1605
11 So Goes Nasdaq... LIQUIDITY EVENTS Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq Source: “Venture Capital Industry Overview,” VentureOne, October 2005 Amont Paid ($B) Number of Transactions $30.0** * YTD05 = 1Q05-3Q05 ** Annual projection 284
12 For Venture Funds, It’s Still a “Hits” Business THE BLAIR WITCH PROJECT Budget = $60,000 Box Office = over $150 million
13 2. Valuation Trends
14 Median Pre-money Valuations by Round Source: “Venture Capital Industry Overview,” VentureOne, October 2005 $29 $25 $14 $13 $5 $6 $3 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 2Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q05 Later StageSecond RoundFirst RoundSeed Round
15 WS Investments Percentage of Series A Deals Increased—But Valuations Did Not H %36%31.3%34.2%46.3% Series A Deals as a Percent of Total Source: WS Investment Data, October 2005
16 WS Investments Quarter Average Pre-Money Value of Top 10 Deals ($m) Average Pre-Money Value of Top 3 Deals ($m) Q104$63$96 Q204$46$71 Q304$44$73 Q404$76$101 Q105$85$179 Q205$50$85 Q305$82$145 Source: WS Investment Data, October 2005
17 WSGR Venture Financing Up Rounds Are Up Source: WSGR Transaction Data, October 2005 Price ChangeQ1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 04 Q1-Q4 2004Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05 Q1-Q Up 59%64%54%61%59%70%69%63%68% Flat 11%12%15%14%13%11%8%19%12% Down 30%24%31%25%27%19%23%19%20%
18 3. Deal Terms
19 Deal Terms Plain Vanilla Is In
20 Deal Terms Liquidation Preference Senior to last round56% Participating preferred w/ cap 69% 35% More than 1x11% Source: WSGR Transaction Data, October 2005
21 Deal Terms Source: WSGR Transaction Data, October 2005 Anti-Dilution Rights Weighted average93% Ratchet4% None2% Pay-to-Play15% Cumulative Dividends9% Redemption Rights30% (9% in 2004) (13% in 2004)
22 Deal Terms New Trend? Partial Founder cash-outs in later stage deals
23 4. Exit Strategies
24 IPOs still Down 0%20%40%60%80%100% YTD05* IPOsM&As Source: “Venture Capital Industry Overview,” VentureOne, October 2005 * YTD05 = Q105 – Q305
25 Who’s Killing the IPOs? Multiple Theories The SEC and the accountants? Higher perceived liability risk? Higher certainty of M&A exits? Investor impatience? Reduced market receptivity to young companies? Reduced supply of candidates? The butler?
26 Reckless Prediction #1 IPO Rates to Double in 1-2 years Capital markets will want high-growth companies Lots of good companies being built Regulatory and accounting costs will be reined in
27 Reckless Prediction #2 The “Build to Sell” Business Model Will Become More Common e.g. –Spin-in’s –“Bio wells”
28 Is Cisco Marxist? John Chambers Karl Marx
29 5. Tilting Towards Asia
30 Venture Investment in Asia Intel 600 venture deals 300 in China WSGR Approaching nearly 2 financings per week in China Approaching nearly 1 financing per week in India India 5 years behind China Venture financings: $884 million in 2003, $1.3 billion in 2004