Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science &

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

Advertisements

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Ernie Wells Hydrologic Services Division NOAA National Weather Service May.

SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.

NOAA Hydrology Program Geoff Bonnin Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service x103 Geoff Bonnin.

David Jorgensen Warnings R&D Division NSSL Hydro-Meteorology Research Summary.

1 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 John (Jack) J. Kelly, Jr. National Weather Service Infusion of Satellite.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Sam Contorno NWS S&T.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.

Jonathan J. Gourley Hydrometeorology Hydrometeorology: Local Testbeds and Field Results.

CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Suzanne Lenihan NWS S&T.

March 14, 2006Intl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. Hydro-Meteorological Decision Support System Bill Conway, Vice President.

Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.

1 Hydro Training Status HSD Meeting February 23, 2010 Mark Glaudemans OCWWS/HSD.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Flood and Flash Flood Warning Program Michelle Schmidt Western Region Hydrology and Climate Services Division.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (  Vision, mission, & roles.

1 10/17/2015 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Paul Hirschberg Office.

National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Southeast River Forecast Center North Florida Visit July 17-20, 2006 Southeast River Forecast.

NOAA Research Supporting Hydrometeorological Science & Services: The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Timothy Schneider NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb. 18, 2010 Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb.

Robert Hartman Acting Director NWS Office of Hydrologic Development GPM in the NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program.

National Weather Service Application of CFS Forecasts in NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction John Schaake Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National.

Reclamation Climate Variabilaity Activities March 28, 2014 Tucson, AZ.

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.

Operational Issues from NCDC Perspective Steve Del Greco, Brian Nelson, Dongsoo Kim NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC Dongjun Seo – NOAA/NWS/OHD 1 st Q2 Workshop Archive,

VALIDATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL WITH A DENSE GAUGE NETWORK AND WEATHER RADARS – FIRST RESULTS Cesar Beneti,

The NOAA Hydrology Program and its requirements for GOES-R Pedro J. Restrepo Senior Scientist Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA’s National Weather.

Strategic Plan for HEPEX John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006.

Current and Future Data Requirements Chandra Kondragunta Hydrometeorology Group Hydrology Laboratory Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA/National Weather.

Insert Date 1 Hurricanes-Inundation Overview Objectives: Improve forecasts of tropical cyclones and related inundation hazards to enhance mitigation decisions.

Mesoscale Probability Forecast Capability: A National Imperative Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science and Technology National Weather Service, NOAA.

1 An Integrated Look at the Hydrology Program Donna Page 25 Feb HIC/ARC Meeting.

1 Critical Water Information for Floods to Droughts NOAA’s Hydrology Program January 4, 2006 Responsive to Natural Disasters Forecasts for Hazard Risk.

National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001.

NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather –

Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Current Operational Capabilities, Issues and Perspectives Britt Westergard, Service Hydrologist WFO Jackson, KY Q2.

1 Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula.

RFC Climate Requirements 2 nd NOAA Climate NWS Dialogue Meeting January 4, 2006 Kevin Werner.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services Kevin Johnston NWS.

USWRP Multi-Agency Cool- Season QPF Workshop Co-Chairs Marty Ralph (NOAA/ETL) Bob Rauber (Univ. Illinois)

Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Nowcasting Applications.

RFC Service Enhancements and Support Concepts for Service Evolution HIC Meeting January 30, 2007.

Flash Flood Prediction Working Group Q2 Workshop June 28-30, 2005.

HIGH IMPACT SERVICE CONCEPTS for the SOUTHERN REGION RIVER FORECAST CENTERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION MIC/HIC CONFERENCE - SERVICE EVOLUTION.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview.

Asia Flood Network— A USAID Program for Flood Mitigation and Preparedness in Asia Asia Flood Network Program Objective –Identify and fill gaps in end-to-end.

Nathalie Voisin 1, Florian Pappenberger 2, Dennis Lettenmaier 1, Roberto Buizza 2, and John Schaake 3 1 University of Washington 2 ECMWF 3 National Weather.

National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasting Course Agenda 14 October – 7 November 2003.

1 Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and Technology NOAA National.

Potential Use of the NOAA G-IV for East Pacific Atmospheric Rivers Marty Ralph Dave Reynolds, Chris Fairall, Allen White, Mike Dettinger, Ryan Spackman.

NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Peter Gabrielsen Chief, Hydrologic Services Division Eastern Region NOAA’s.

Proposed THORPEX/HEPEX Hydrologic Ensemble Project (THEPS) Presentation for 3 rd THORPEX Science Symposium September 14-18, 2009 Prepared by John Schaake,

Focus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service Assessment – Per the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input.

Research To Operations For Improved Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts David Kitzmiller Group Leader - Hydrometeorology Hydrology Laboratory, Office.

Latin American and Caribbean Flood and Drought Monitor Colby Fisher, Nathaniel Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood Princeton University … with support.

1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP January 28, 2004.

16-Mar-16 1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T.

Overview of CBRFC Flood Operations Arizona WFOs – May 19, 2011 Kevin Werner, SCH.

AHPS Program Plan FY07 Update. AHPS Program Plan Document Purpose  Provide an overview of AHPS and serve as a guide for the AHPS program  Defines in.

11 Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang, Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding.

Ensemble Forecasts Andy Wood CBRFC. Forecast Uncertainties Meteorological Inputs: Meteorological Inputs: Precipitation & temperature Precipitation & temperature.

1 NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program Gary Carter Director, NWS Office of Hydrologic Development Manager, NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program.

COMMISSION FOR HYDROLOGY (CHy)

Peter May and Beth Ebert CAWCR Bureau of Meteorology Australia

Office of Hydrologic Development

Science of Rainstorms with applications to Flood Forecasting

Presentation transcript:

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science & Technology Committee September 17, 2002

Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

Hydrologic Services Team Composition NWSNWS –Richard Fulton (OHD / HL) –David Reynolds (WFO Monterey, CA) –Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL) –John Schaake (OHD / HL) –Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC) –Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / HSD) OAROAR –Kevin Kelleher (NSSL) –Marty Ralph (ETL) –Brooks Martner (ETL) NESDISNESDIS –Roderick Scofield (ORA) –Robert Kuligowski (ORA)

Hydrologic Services Vision / Benefits Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations $240M/yr in Flood Loss Savings and $520M/yr in Economic Benefits to Water Resource Managers (2002 NHWC Report)

Hydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Goal Target FY12 Target Flash Flood Warning (Lead Time) (G) 47 Min. 48 Min. 55 Min. 60 Min. Flash Flood Warning (POD) (G) 86%89%92%93% Flash Flood Warning (FAR) (S) 37%35%32%30% Precip. Forecast (1-in Day 1 ThrScr) (G) 23%24%26%26% Proposed Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target River Flood Warning (Lead Time) N/A 7 Hrs. 8 Hrs. River Flood Warning (POD) N/A80%85% River Flood Warning (FAR) N/A26%20% On Track Low Risk High Risk

Hydrologic Services Key Information Gaps Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF)Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF) Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs Hydrologic ForecastingHydrologic Forecasting High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & Warnings Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0- 3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions GapSolutionImpact Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information High-resolution Short- and Long-term Precipitation Forecasts High-resolution Short- and Long-term Hydrologic Forecasts Probabilistic & Dual- Polarized Radar QPE AlgorithmsProbabilistic & Dual- Polarized Radar QPE Algorithms Radar, Satellite, & Raingauge QPE Analysis TechniqueRadar, Satellite, & Raingauge QPE Analysis Technique Regional Ensemble WRF with DARegional Ensemble WRF with DA Improved RUCImproved RUC NOAH, N-LDASNOAH, N-LDAS ADSTAT, MPN, AN Nowcast AlgorithmsADSTAT, MPN, AN Nowcast Algorithms Distributed Hydro. ModelDistributed Hydro. Model Ensemble Streamflow Prediction modelEnsemble Streamflow Prediction model FFMP/SCANFFMP/SCAN Improved Forcing for Hydrologic ModelsImproved Forcing for Hydrologic Models Improved Water Management & Decision MakingImproved Water Management & Decision Making High-resolution Forecasts & WarningsHigh-resolution Forecasts & Warnings Improved Forcing for Hydro. Forecast ModelsImproved Forcing for Hydro. Forecast Models Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and WarningImproved Flash Flood Monitoring and Warning Water Excess-Deficit Decision MakingWater Excess-Deficit Decision Making

Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions Polariz. QPE Prob. QPE 8km WRF FFMP Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Forecast Techniques Forecast Techniques Training PDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. models Multisensor QPE Fld Fcst Maps GPM Distr. model ESP JCSDA Phased Array Radar QP+Hydro Nowcasts Dissemination Wireless, PDA Enabling Techn. GIS Hyperspectral Orographic model Hydro DA Graphical products Prob. QPF products Region Ens+DA Internet-Next GOES+POES

Hydrologic Services Outstanding R&D Needs Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge DataDevelop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP ForecastsImprove Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged LocationsDevelop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability InformationDevelop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational DatasetsImprove NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & ModelsImplement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Models

Hydrologic Services Summary R&D Needs Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast ModelsBetter QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data AssimilationProbabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation Hydrometeorological TestbedsHydrometeorological Testbeds Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools Location-specific Warnings Graphical, Probabilistic Products Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations Increasing Performance On-going Training

Back-up Information

CitizensCitizens Emergency Managers, FEMAEmergency Managers, FEMA Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators)Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators) Water Transportation and NavigationWater Transportation and Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Construction IndustryConstruction Industry Transportation and CommerceTransportation and Commerce Municipal Public Works DepartmentsMunicipal Public Works Departments Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA)Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA) Recreational UsersRecreational Users Primary Customers & Partners

Key Products & Services Public river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficitPublic river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficit River and flash flood watches and warningsRiver and flash flood watches and warnings Forecast discussion productsForecast discussion products Radar and satellite precipitation estimatesRadar and satellite precipitation estimates Rain gauge data productsRain gauge data products Flash Flood Guidance productsFlash Flood Guidance products Radar-based very short range (0-3 hrs) QPF NWP-based QPF for short and medium ranges HPC/RFC forecaster value- added QPF products for days 1-5HPC/RFC forecaster value- added QPF products for days 1-5 MOS value-added QPFMOS value-added QPF Potential evaporation forecastsPotential evaporation forecasts

Hydrologic Services S & T Roadmap

Hydrologic Services Flash Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

Hydrologic Services Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Skill Performance Measure

Hydrologic Services River Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures