The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake ( “ The Great SF Earthquake ” )

M7 Oct. 21, 1868 Hayward earthquake 30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (12th most lethal US earthquake) $350,000 (in 1868 dollars) in damage in San Francisco alone Extensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont (total population less than 2000) Bay Area population was 260,000 (it is now 27 times larger)

Lienkaemper and Williams, BSSA, in press, 2007 Why commemorate its 140th anniversary on October 21, 2008?? Last 5 quakes on the Hayward Fault have been 140 years apart on average

Bancroft Library Reinstein Clothing Factory, 314 California St., San Francisco Settlement

Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario “I expect significant intraregional movement of people and therefore economic activity as a result of the disaster.” “We can expect ghost-towns throughout the East Bay, and we cannot automatically expect that HUD financing will be available to repair them.”

Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario Over 60% of EBMUD customers will be out of service immediately Over 75% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 3 days Over 40% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 9 days Over 15% of EBMUD customers will be out of service after 60 days 3000 to 5000 EBMUD pipe breaks, mainly caused by liquefaction If PG&E power is lost, EBMUD’s ability to replenish reservoirs is lost.

Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario If the earthquake occurs on a workday, at least 800,000 commuters out of the 3,000,000 total commuters will have to be transported back to where they want to be. 125,000 will need shelter due to damage to their residences (not just in the East Bay).

Updating the 1996 EERI Hayward Fault Scenario In Alameda County, 33% of the hospital capacity will have to be evacuated, 33% will be in limited service, and 33% will be fully operational. In Contra Costa County, about 50% will be fully operational, 33% in limited service, and a small number evacuated. There might be 20,000 injuries requiring hospitalization and a total of only 10,000 beds available.

1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance activities Commemoration Events Public Service Announcements School earthquake drills Hayward Fault exhibit Teacher Tutorials TV Specials Hayward Fault Initiative (with EERI) Scientific Workshops

earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1868/

Examples of USGS Product Releases 1868 ShakeMap Animations of a Hayward Fault earthquake showing ground motions ala 1906 movies 1868 Hayward Earthquake Virtual Tour Hayward Fault in 3D Hayward Fault Lidar Data

Tentative Alliance Schedule Oct Kickoff Press Conference Dec AGU special session on the 1868 quake Spring Reopen Hayward Fault exhibit?? Spring/Fall USGS Product Releases Summer/Fall Speaker Series Oct. 21, Commemoration Event Oct USGS/CGS Scientific Workshop

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