Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding the forecast system in Canada Donald Talbot Chief of Meteorological System Section, CMC SAAWSO Project Workshop St. John’s, April 23rd, 2013

Page 2 Overview Actual forecast system Scribe Next Generation Forecast System Signature Project New post processing and nowcasting systems Collaboration and a need for operational systems

Page 3 MATRICES MODELS Canadian Met. Centre SCRIBE Storm Prediction Centers Concepts Generator Weather Elements “CONCEPTS” Products Generator PRODUCTS SCRIBE Matrices Generator METEOCODE

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Page 5 Signature Project: Next Generation Forecasting System Make use of new NWP systems and re-define post processing –point paradigm changing to grid forecasting Next Gen includes the Warning Re-engineering Signature Project –NWP with a focus on High Impact Weather (HIW) Forecasters activities in relation to nowcasting and weather watch for HIW New level of service and development of new products Several developers grouped in different teams will work on specific portion of the new forecast system –The pool of information will be center at every development team –Next Gen will be an evolution of the existing forecasting system, it will not be a whole new system

Page 6 Summer Global Regional Urban Local Det. 25 km Det. 10 km EPS 15 km Det. 2.5 km Det. 250-> 5m Det. 10 km EPS 35 km Det. 2.5 km EPS 10 kmEPS 2.5 km Det. 3m EPS 5m Det. 10 km EPS 20 km Det. 1.5 km EPS 10 kmEPS 1.5 km Det. 1m EPS 5m Future evolution of CMC atmospheric models EPS 66 km

Page 7 LAM2.5km-West Inland Scribe matrices (red cross)

Page 8 RDPS 10 km topography (GZ0, dam)

Page 9 LAM-W 2.5 km topography (GZ0, dam)

Page 10 A project involving several groups interfacetext NWP UMOS Conceptsdatabase CMDM CMDW scribe software nowcasting NinJo met objects text

Page 11 Best data – Post Processing Review post processing with best science and new guidance, verification with EMET Collaboration with National Labs New guidances –on High Impact Weather (HIW) –on ensemble, calibration and sampling –Information or intrinsic value UMOS+MIST and/or CALDAS+GEM-surf Consistency among weather elements Strategies for best data : e.g. for day 6-7, averaging of last two runs

Page 12 Observations of precipitation types, convection and cloud cover are converted into a meso-scale analysis using the Kriging interpolation method (50 km grid) The resulting analysis is then refined by using radar, satellite and lightning observation data and NWP Meso-scales analysis are produced by combining these different data sources using a rules bases system (12.5 km grid) The sequence in the production of the meso-scale analysis is important: 1.Cloud cover 2.Precipitation occurrences 3.Precipitation types 4.Stability & Convection analysis is independent The final analysis are extrapolated by a forward scheme using the NWP wind field (50% of 500 hPa) Nowcasting on the grid : Prototype description

Page 13 Nowcasting on the grid Nowcasting workshop’s date decided at next Prediction Committee in June Meso analysis from Bourgouin –Presentation at GLOMW in April, input of meteorologists HIW ? Weather watch, run on request not just hourly Ontario lab and ARMP science transfer –radar and satellite NWCSAF under EUMETSAT Investigate what is done with INCA

Page 14 Example : better fog forecasting GEM10km not handling well fog, unless using B. Burrows diagnostics based on FRAM With LAM2.5, diagnostic fields calculated from prognostic values from M-Y scheme and based on Ismail Gultepe’s parameterizations using FRAM data Hourly fog observation by satellite, extrapolation and then converging toward LAM2.5 solution could be a good strategy

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Page 17 How to bring a project to operations At the beginning, plan its implementation Develop code using best practice in programming Testing and verification scores Demonstration to decisional committee such as CPOP Delivery to the implementation section with documentation, validation Forever support to operations in case of problems Operational forecasters use and feedback

Page 18 Links with ARMP INTW for nowcasting at points and on grid (MIST), Laura and George Radar and Precip-ET, Norm Donaldson and Ahmed Mahidjiba (CMOI) Satellite applications for nowcasting and weather over cold climatic regions during SAAWSO project (Satellite Applications for Arctic Weather and SAR Operations), Ismail Gultepe, April , St. John’s NF No replacement to MAPLE, optical flow technique in STEPS, Paul Joe

Page 19 Conclusion New forecast system lies ahead of us Projects will converge toward operations Collaboration among all partners is key