New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania NEW APPROACH TO MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA DALIA AMBROZAITIENĖ STATISTICS LITHUANIA

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania OVERVIEW MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION RETURN MIGRATION SURVEY STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES FUTURE WORK

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania CHALLANGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA Persons leaving the country difficult to count due to their absence, significant share of emigrants do not declare emigration (free movement of persons within the enlarged EU, mobility of population, abolition of border control in the Shengen area) Problems of statistical observation of outflows; undeclared status of movements, short–term migrant became emigrant (change of place of the residence for more then 12 months) Combination of administrative data sources does not ensure sufficient quality of emigration statistics

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS ADMINISTRATIVE DATA HOUSEHOLDS SURVEYS POPULATION REGISTER DATABASE UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY STATE SOCIAL INSURANCE DATABASE DECLARED MIGRATION FLOWSUNDECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS EVALUATION OF TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS UNDECLARED IMMIGRATION SURVEY

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION STATISTICS UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY UNDECLARED EMIGRANT IS A PERSON WHO HAS NOT DECLARED HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM THE COUNTRY AND HIS/HER USUAL PLACE OF RESIDENCE IS IN AN OTHER COUNTRY OR S/HE IS INTENDING TO STAY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY FOR A PERIOD 12 MONTHS OR LONGER

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY Data on emigrants who not declared their departure are in population register database with any changes Auxiliary information (population number by municipality, breakdown of population by sex, age group and urban/rural area) USUAL RESIDENTS OF LITHUANIA = EMPLOYED POPULATION + UNEMPLOYED POPULATION + INACTIVE POPULATION + EMIGRANTS WHO HAVE NO DECLARED THEIR DEPARTURE

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY Annual household survey, I quarter (2006, 2007, 2008) Framework - LFS by supplementing module on undeclared migration One-stage simple random size, sampling frame – Population register

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania UNDERCLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE Questions about PERSON WHO EMIGRATED New country of residence; How many years /months ago s/he left Lithuania MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMICCHARACTERISTICS Age, sex Educational attainment Occupation before leaving Current status (worker, student, other) REASON FOR EMIGRATION FAMILY - whether all family left, where and with whom are children, who (relatives, grandparents, etc.) take care about children if both parents emigrated

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY Data obtained compared (at personal level, according to confidentiality rules) with databases of Population Register and the State Social Insurance Fund Board Accuracy: coefficient of variation for the number of emigrants who had not declared their departure ranged about 15 percent

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY RESULTS – FOR EVALUATION OF UNDECLARED AND TOTAL EMIGRATION FLOWS EACH SECOND –THIRD EMIGRANT DECLARES HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM LITHUANIA

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania EMIGRATION FLOWS FROM LITHUANIA 2001–2007, thousand Evaluation based on the Undeclared emigration survey and the data of declaration of place of residence. 26,5

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania IMMIGRATION SURVEY 2008 Focusing on assessment of undeclared return migration To estimate number and main characteristics on return migrants Reasons for return to Lithuania Module in LFS Field work -2008, final results Pilot results- II q 2008, coefficient of variation ranged about 17 percent

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES Bank of Lithuania starts publishing remittances of private individuals (migrants) Collaboration between the National bank and Statistics Lithuania Balance of payments and Household survey (ICT) The cash received from the family members residing abroad or cash remittances to those living in foreign countries or residing there on the temporary basis COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AND WORKERS REMITTANCES, TRANFERED – 3,6 million LTL (3.7 percent, compared with GDP)

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania CHALLENGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA Great need to develop specific studies HOW TO INTEGRATE statistical estimates of undeclared international migration to migration and demographic statistics Estimated figure is used ADITIONALLY to register-based migration statistics

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania FUTURE WORK Find the best solution aimed at further development of migration and demographic statistics Collaboration with scientific community, international experts, Eurostat and NSI’s on methodological issues Full implementation of European Regulation on Community migration statistics Exchange of data on migrants between EU member states Population Census 2011

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