NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer American Simmental Association.

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Presentation transcript:

NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer American Simmental Association

Thou Shalt Select Superior Sires! Second Commandment of Beef Cattle Breeding

EPDs Anything Else Use EPDs! 1 st Step: Predicting Genetic Level

Where Do We Go From Here? MCE:4 CE:2 REA:.3 BKF:.01 MBL:.2 YG:.2 MW: 25 WBSF: -.12 STAY: 18 WW: 35 YW: 68 MLK: 10 TM: 27 CW: 20 BW: 3.2

Charting a Direction...

Typical Direction: Output

More Desirable Direction: Profit

How Do We Select for Profit? Measure It!!!! Profit = $Output - $Input

Economic Selection Index Lanoy Hazel, 1943 Measuring Profit Profit = $Output - $Input

(Output Traits)(Input Traits) - = Replacement Rate Cowherd Intake Feedlot Intake Calf Survival Weaning Weight Carcass Weight Yield Grade Marbling Salvage Weight (Prices)(Costs) Measuring Profit Profit = $Output - $Input

Price & Cost Assumptions: Salvage price: $.45/lb Hay: $.0325/lb Pasture: $25/ac/yr Feed; fixed costs: Phase 1: $.036/lb; $.51/d Phase 2: $.039/lb; $.80/d Phase 3: $.067/lb; $.80/d Carcass prices: Base: $121/cwt < 550 lb: - $15/cwt > 950 lb: - $7/cwt > 1000 lb: - $17.50/cwt Prime: + $8.00/cwt High Choice: + $3.50/cwt Choice: + $1.50/cwt Select: - $11.00/cwt Standard: - $20.00/cwt YG 1: + $4.00/cwt YG 2: + $2.00/cwt YG 3: $0.00/cwt YG 4: - $15.00/cwt YG 5: - $20.00/cwt Biological Assumptions Weaning weight: 550 lb Feedlot gain; intake: Phase 1 (80 d): 2.51 lb/d; lb/d Phase 2 (50 d): 2.92 lb/d; 21.9 lb/d Phase 3 (100 d): 3.81 lb/d;26.67 lb/d Cow size: 1250 lb Milk production: 5283 lb/lactation Pregnancy rate: 84% Dystocia heifers (direct): 20% Dystocia heifers (maternal): 20% Calf survival: 96% Harvest weight: lb Dressing: 62.9% Carcass weight: lb Marbling score: 5.14 Yield grade: 2.8 Measuring Profit

High Yielding YG3 $121 YG2 $123 YG2 $123 YG3 $121 YG4 $106 YG4 $106 YG5 $101 YG5 $101 Low Yielding YG4 $106 YG1 $125 YG1 $125 Measuring Profit: Accounting for Biological x Economic Interaction

All-Purpose Index (API) a Terminal Index (TI) a Bred to all-aged females Retain replacements Bred to mature cows No replacements retained a General Assumptions: Sires mated to Angus cow herd Integrated system selling on end product value Prices/costs based on CattleFax prediction models ASA’s Economic Indexes

5 Year Assessment Indexes have been integrated more quickly than any technology we have ever introduced Indexes have the potential to substantially increase the integration level of animal breeding technology Indexes are Highly Marketable!

sexywork simple Keys to Marketability

Prices and costs tend to maintain equilibrium over time Tend to be robust even when prices and costs not in equilibrium Producer Concerns: Economic parameters are unpredictable: Validated in other species Straightforward accounting process… methodology is validated Bottom line… high probability of being more effective than current “seat-of-the-pants” approach One size fits all… doesn’t fit me: Population-wide indexes must necessarily cover entire production system Few producers have data necessary to parameterize “customized” indexes Strong correlations between “customized” indexes Customized indexes aren’t as marketable…reducing integration Indexes aren’t “validated”: