Visioning: Towards a new initiative on Earth system research for global sustainability research Prof. Deliang CHEN, ICSU Executive Director

An Initiative arising from Visioning and Belmont efforts Earth System Visioning ( ) mandated by the ICSU General Assembly in 2008 to outline options for an overall framework for global environmental change research established in cooperation with ISSC Earth System Visioning ( ) mandated by the ICSU General Assembly in 2008 to outline options for an overall framework for global environmental change research established in cooperation with ISSC Belmont Forum a high-level body of main funders of environmental change research established in 2009 to catalyze delivery of the environmental science-derived solutions that society needs Belmont Forum a high-level body of main funders of environmental change research established in 2009 to catalyze delivery of the environmental science-derived solutions that society needs

Visioning: a three-year consultative process FunctionFormTransition Business as usual is not an option Need an overarching structure Business as usual is not an option Need an overarching structure A Joint Integrated Strategy under unified framework Strategically integrating GECs and other structures A Joint Integrated Strategy under unified framework Strategically integrating GECs and other structures Five Grand Challenges Integration across disciplines A new way of doing research Five Grand Challenges Integration across disciplines A new way of doing research

The Belmont Challenge This requires: Assessments of risks, impacts and vulnerabilities, through regional and decadal analysis and prediction Information on the state of the environment, through advanced observing systems Interaction of natural and social sciences Enhanced environmental information service provision to users Effective international coordination mechanisms. To deliver knowledge needed for action to mitigate and adapt to detrimental environmental change and extreme hazardous events.

Thanks to NSF for support!

The Belmont Report “Regional Environmental Change: Human action and adaptation – what does it take to meet the Belmont Challenge?” Readiness of the community Impediments Road Map to address the Belmont Challenge Instruments and Initiatives Conclusions 6

Readiness of the Community The academic community is aware of the challenges, however The selection of research topics is often dominated by academic curiosity and disciplinary challenges, and much less so by societal needs Impressive disciplinary knowledge has been accumulated (data & models) but is not brought to full use for Belmont Challenge type questions The institutional structure and the incentives for integrated analyses of the Belmont Challenge are not sufficiently developed 7

Impediments Funding Structure –Academic funding often organized along disciplinary lines –Difficulties in coordinating international funding schemes –Lack of funding for local academics in the most vulnerable regions Educational Systems –The academic reward system does not support integrated research activities –At least Postdoctoral programs should emphasize interdisciplinary expertise Infrastructure and Facilities –Infrastructure for regional environmental issues has been developed along disciplinary lines – integration is necessary –Even more powerful machines are needed for “Earth System Prediction Models” 8

Requirements Addressing the issues requires –enhanced understanding of multiple stressors and their impacts, and vulnerability of ecosystems and society –better quantification of the rates of change, the controlling factors and feedbacks at relevant spatial and temporal scales; –thorough assessment of the environmental and societal consequences of mitigation and adaptation strategies 9

Requirements These in turn require more effective use and further development of four elements –Observation and monitoring (Socio- economic data) –Analysis and prediction (Integrated Earth system analysis and prediction systems) –Information and communication (Environment Service) –Capacity building 10

Instruments and Suggested Initiatives International Research and Educational Network for Earth System Science (IRNESS) Pilot Studies –…. 11

Convergence of strategies for a long-term partnership ICSU – ISSC Visioning Belmont Forum Seeking stronger partnership Cape Town meeting Dec 2010

A global Alliance for a new 10-year initiative Note: WMO is an observer to ESSI Earth System Sustainability Initiative

Earth System for Sustainability Initiative: goals Deliver knowledge to respond to global change Address the grand challenges Engage a new generation of researchers

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