DEUTSCHE BANK PRESENTATION 23/24 November 2015 Impact of new competition on existing shopping centre performance.

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Presentation transcript:

DEUTSCHE BANK PRESENTATION 23/24 November 2015 Impact of new competition on existing shopping centre performance

Where are we? 7.5% p.a. growth in shopping centre GLA since 2005 More than 2000 shopping centres 6th highest per capita shopping centre GLA in world And 2.2mil m² shopping centres on drawing board Mall of Africa, Ballito, Springs, Cornubia, Menlyn et al in the ground: additional 500k+ m2

The disconnect

Why the continuing development? Extrapolation by retailers of “unusual” 2004 – 2007 trading performance Retailer obsession with market share at expense of profitability Retailer herd mentality Relative low fixed costs in growing retailer space – labour & rental Developers subsidizing store development costs Long lag time between commitment and taking delivery Poor market-demand research for both retailers and developers Financial institutions eagerness to “grow” credit book Availability of “put options” to listed REITS REITS eagerness to increase exposure to retail assets Poor/non-existent town planning and local authorities’ eagerness to grow tax base

Consequences: Continuing decline in trading densities Ongoing retailer cannibalization and margin compression Increasing occupancy cost to turnover ratios leading to low rental growth Increased operating costs at centre level – marketing Over-capitalization in retail assets in order to compete Declining values for owners and local authorities “Dead Mall” syndrome & “still born” malls

PERFORMANCE RATING OF POST 1995 SHOPPING CENTRES Excluding Rural and Township centres

PERFORMANCE RATING OF POST 1995 SHOPPING CENTRES

COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: RUSTENBURG

Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio Waterfall Mall & Value CentrePlatinum Square Date of Development1998 & 2007Nov-12 GLA - m Current Trading densityR2850/m2 Major Tenants PnP, GAME, Woolworths, Clicks, Ster Kinekor, Truworths, Foschini, Mr Price, Corricraft, The Hub, Waltons Checkers Hyper, Foodlovers Market, Sportsmans warehouse, MRP Home, Dion Wired, House & Home, Toys-R- Us, UFO Furniture

Performance also impacted by platinum mine strike in 2014 Level of CompetitionCompetition limited to non fashion retailers Overall Trading Density changeTrading Density change excl PicknPay & GAME Foot Counts Change %7.0% %-3.5%-5% %-4.2%-6% current5.0%7.1%-2% Trading Density change : 2012 to current PicknPay-32%R80 mil p.a. GAME-30% Incredible Connection-25% Identity-18% Ster Kinekor-16% Clicks-9% Edgars-7%

COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: KRUGERSDORP/ROODEPOORT

Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio

Level of CompetitionCompetition across all retailers Overall Trading Density changeTrading Density change excl national retailers Foot Counts Change %7.4% %1.0%-3% current6.0%10.0%-3% Decline in Trading Density: Yr 1Decline in Trading Density: Current year GAME-22%Maxi's-17% Edgars-11%Foschini-9% Jewellery-10%GAME-5% Foschini-8% Ackermans-7% PEP-7% Woolworths-6% PicknPay-5%

COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: KLERKSDORP

Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio

Analysis of competition impact: Port Elizabeth

Level of CompetitionCompetition across all retailers WALMER PARKGREENACRESTHE BRIDGE Jun %-8.0%-1.4% Jul-157.0%-10.0%0.6% Aug %-5.0%4.5% Sep %-4.0%1.9% SIGNIFICANT TURNOVER CHANGE OVER PERIOD WALMER PARKGREENACRESTHE BRIDGE Edgars-21%-17% Shoprite -5.10% Truworths -9% Jet -7% Cinemas-18% -29% Cotton On-26%Duplicated stores Lecreuset-25%Duplicated stores Restaurants-18%