University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Energy scenarios for Europe options for energy security and emission control project for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Aim Investigate energy strategies for the EU25 that achieve multiple environmental and energy goals at low or minimum overall cost. (SEEScen model) Goals: environment –global warming –atmospheric pollutants –other pollutants energy security –minimum imports of finite fuels

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Options Investigate deployment of ‘Non-end-of-pipe’ (NEOP) options that reduce finite fuels and atmospheric emissions. CategoryExamples 1NEOP Behavioural change Smaller cars, lower speeds 2NEOP Demand management Building insulation, appliance efficiency 3NEOP Improved energy conversion Boilers, heat pumps, CHP 4NEOPFuel switchingFrom coal and oil to gas and renewables 5EOPEnd-of-pipe Flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, and carbon sequestration

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Process Generate energy scenarios –collect base data –develop assumptions about policy options –run scenarios –output results data energy flows through different sectors and technologies costs and emissions Translate energy flow data into RAINS format IIASA run RAINS

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Some critical input assumptions CO2 targets –for 2010/12, 2020 and the longer term –include international transport - aviation, shipping? Demand drivers –population and households –economic growth and sectoral activity Energy –international energy prices –future generation from existing and new nuclear stations –energy trade balance constraints between EU25 and rest of world Any advice from TFIAM concerning these welcomed.

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Sample output: UK scenario: energy flow chart for 2050

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Sample output: UK scenario: electricity

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Sample output: UK scenario: CO2

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Sample output: UK CO2 by scenario

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Sample output: UK scenario: Total cost

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Timetable Energy scenarios ready by mid-November Transfer of energy data to RAINS – Nov/Dec IIASA to run RAINS - end of the year Results ready to present at the NECPI meeting in Jan/Feb 2007

University College London Complex Built Environment Systems Bartlett School of Graduate Studies Where to reach Mark ? Tel