PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Globalization Seminar, Mechanical Engineering 484X, 18 January 2006

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide  Radiative forcing  Simulations of global climate and future climate change  “Dangerous anthropogenic inter- ference with the climate system”?  “Climate surprises”  Summary

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2006

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

“Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan” Mark Kushner, Dean Iowa State University College of Engineering President’s Council Meeting 13 January 2006

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); Normalized Change Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs. Change in Surface Temperature Longwave Down Surface (2m) Temperature

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Associated Climate Changes  Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr  Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere  Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%  Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions  Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere  Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents  Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges  Snow cover decreased by 10%  Earlier flowering dates  Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, Sea-surface temperature VV V Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

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Tropical Weather Weather Underground:

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( Cambridge University Press (

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( Cambridge University Press ( Projected sea-level rise In 21st century: 0.5 to 1.0 m

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers  An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system  Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d  There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities  Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

For the Midwest  Warming will be greater for winter than summer  Warming will be greater at night than during the day  A 3 o F rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave  Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950)  More precipitation  Likely more soil moisture in summer  More rain will come in intense rainfall events  Higher stream flow, more flooding

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Surprises  Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)  Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”? James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: *Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m 2 *1 o C additional rise in global mean temperature

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University  Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK  Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada  Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy  Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada  Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA  Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator

NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM HADAM3 link to EU programs CGCM current future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL Reanalyzed climate,

Climate Model Resolution global regional (land) regional (water) Only every second RCM grid point is shown in each direction

Application of Climate Change Scenarios  Space-heating/power demands  Crop yields  Soil carbon levels  Soil erosion  Bird migration patterns  Dairy cow milk production  Heat stress in beef cattle  Snowpack/reservoir performance  Crop pathogens  Habitat/climate for invasive species  Soil or aquatic ecosystems  Hardiness zones for trees  Freshwater availability  Lake-level changes  Recreation changes

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary  Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”  Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term  The longer we wait, the fewer our options  Regional patterns of warming will be complicated  Climate surprises can’t be discounted  We need dialog between scientists and the private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:  Contact me directly: