Data to capture those at risk of exclusion Mihail Peleah UNDP Istanbul Regional Hub Promoting Job Rich and Sustainable Growth in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, Tbilisi, Georgia, 29 October 2015

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. (George E. P. Box)

Income Inequality Gini 32Income Inequality Gini 33 Social inequality 29 Social inequality 7

Availability – Status – Perception Ukraine,

Own calculations based on Regional Human Development Report, 2011Regional Human Development Report Lee Kwan Yew “[our goal is] to give every citizen a stake in the country and its future.”

Drivers of social exclusionSpecific local conditionsSocial exclusion statusIndividual characteristics interact with in context of …and result in Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policies Drivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion (social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster of the individual in three dimensions— exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation Social Exclusion Chain

Different combinations of individual risks and local context results in different levels of social exclusion Average Capital or economic center Small town Village Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences… Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local conditions and amplify exclusion Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded! Local conditions matter Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

Corruption: Supply and Tolerance

Attitudes matter

Cycles of exclusion

Secondary Source Contextualization Survey Administrative datasets Statistical databases

Local economy matters

Serbia: Social Exclusion and Health

Serbia: Social Exclusion and Education

Serbia: Social Exclusion and Employment

Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion …and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions… …while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference …economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education) …and much more if you are educated Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011 Inclusion gain due to education Inclusion gain due to business environment

Thanks to Borko Vulikic for this Cooperation Competition Corruption

Jeeps and Sheeps Cluster of stories re: – Communities – Revenues – Source of incomes – Limitations of income or business activities Dig into the stories – Jeep tours were organized to protected areas – …but they raise dust clouds – …which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese – …cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes Solution – Move jeep trail 500 m from village Thanks to Borko Vulikic for this

Mihail Peleah UNDP Istanbul Regional Hub Thank you!