UCACN Model Advisory Committee: Kickoff Meeting Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service 13 April 2015

National Weather Service 2 Outline THANKS to all UMAC Members!!!!  Background and Motivation  Production Suite and the Supercomputer  Expectations from the UMAC

National Weather Service NWS Strategic Goals Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services Improve Water Forecasting Services Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission NWS Strategic Outcome: NWS Strategic Outcome: Weather-Ready Nation Prediction is what makes NOAA/NWS unique and indispensable! 3 Operational numerical guidance: Foundational tools to used to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth

4  Climate Modeling and Prediction  National Earth System Prediction Capability  North American Multi-Model Ensemble  Next Generation Global Prediction System  Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project  Hi-Impact Weather Prediction Project  Warn on Forecast  Storm Surge Roadmap  National Air Quality Forecast Capability  Tsunami Modeling and Research  Space Weather Modeling  Ecological Forecasting  Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Map NOAA Projects with Modeling into the Weather Ready Nation NWS Strategic Goals Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services Improve Water Forecasting Services Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission Sector-Relevant = Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Coastal

Feedback: Model Requirements and Pre-Implementation Assessments  Requirements definition Identified as a weakness by NCEP stakeholders incomplete requirements may create false expectations NWS needs an improved process—is portfolio management the answer? 5  Stakeholders--- need earlier access to information What changes are being made? What’s the rational? What characteristics of the tool will change? Stakeholder calibration methods need time and access to pre-implementation data in order to adapt (i.e., GEFS FY15 Upgrade) 30-day NCO parallel insufficient for customer assessment IMPROVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN MODEL DEVELOPERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

National Weather Service Current Status of Supercomputer Key Milestones: May 2014: 3km HWRF (Hurricane-Weather Research & Forecasting) model upgraded – best hurricane model in the world. Sept 2014: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational – 3km every hr. Jan 2015: Global Forecast System (GFS) upgraded – 13km out to 10d. Upcoming Model Upgrades: HWRF SREF GEFS DA/GFS/4D ENKF HRRR (HRRRe) 6 Goal: Increase HPC capacity from 776teraFLOPs in January 2015 to 2.5petaFLOPs (for primary and backup, respectively – for a total of 5 PF) by the end of CY TeraFLOP per operational system ECMWF 1796

ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System Regional Hurricane (HWRF & GFDL) WavesGlobal Ocean Space Weather Spanning Weather and Climate Tsunami Whole Atmosphere NMME NSWPS Bays Storm Surge Global Dust Fire Wx 7 Air Quality Wave Ensemble Land DA HRRR

Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM WRF(ARW, NMMB, NMM) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (December 2014) GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice North American Ensemble Forecast System GEFS, Canadian Global Model Dispersion HYSPLIT Air Quality CMAQ Regional NAM NMMB NOAH 3D-VAR DA Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM) Columbia R. ( SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS) San Francisco (FVCOM) Space Weather ENLIL 8 North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System NOAH Land Surface Model Global Spectral NOAH 3D-En-Var DA Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-VAR DA 3D-VAR DA WRF ARW Rapid Refresh 3D-VAR DA Waves WaveWatch III Ocean HYCOM Ecosystem EwE Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members ESTOFS ADCIRC SURGE SLOSH P-SURGE SLOSH WRF ARW 3D-VAR DA High Resolution RR NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART WRF(ARW, NMMB) High Res Windows

9 24-h Cycle 29 December 2014 Number of Nodes Time of Day (UTC) SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System) NAM (North American Mesoscale) CFS (Climate Forecast System) WW3 (Wave Watch III) RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System) RAP (Rapid Refresh) HRW (High Res Window) Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.208Pf) GFS NAM SREF HRRR GEFS RTOFS Waves HiRESW CFS

10 Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components % utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period Regional Systems 45% of total

11 24-h Cycle 03 April 2015 Number of Nodes Time of Day (UTC) Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.21 Pf) + Phase 2 (Capacity ~ 0.55Pf) GFS NAM SREF GEFS RTOFS GWVENS HiRESW CFS RAP HRRR Phase 2 Phase 1 SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System) NAM (North American Mesoscale) CFS (Climate Forecast System) GWVENS (Global Wave Ensemble) RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System) RAP (Rapid Refresh) HRW (High Res Window)

12 Phase 1: Computational Cost of Production Suite Components % utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period

13 Commonly asked Questions: Production Suite Evolution  Global systems increase horizontal & vertical resolution GFS satisfies NAM requirements (GFS to day 10—Jan 2015) GEFS satisfies SREF requirements (GEFS to day 8—Spring 2015) GEFS reforecasts a new requirement (Maintain current GEFS for 1-year)  Regional systems shift to convection permitting ensembles HRRRE to satisfy WOF & NAM requirements (GSI, ARW and NMM)  Emerging requirements at weeks 3 & 4 and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) Coupled GEFS extended to 30-days + reforecasts Improve CFS for sub-seasonal to seasonal Operationalize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)  Coordinate other components of the production suite Hydrologic Space weather Ecological Arctic

14 UMAC Expectations: NCEP Director Perspective  First time with NOAA model developers, customers and external subject matter experts on modeling in the same room.  Outcome: a set of recommendations that will be used to build a strategy to evolve the NPS over the next 5-10 years  UMAC outcomes will inform: The integrated NOAA modeling strategy Priorities for NOAA funded research in modeling across line offices AO’s will allow external participation in research and development Joint projects with NOAA scientists will be encouraged External community becomes part of the development team Involved in test plan development, execution and analysis (HWRF) Enable NOAA to have a robust modeling program designed to meet agency mission  Allows NOAA to step back and assess strategic evolution of the production suite