Measuring Public Opinion Sampling Techniques –Representative sampling Most important principle in sampling = randomness –Every person should have a known chance, and especially an equal chance, of being sampled Margin of Error = the range of percentage points in which the sample accurately reflects the population

Measuring Public Opinion Intensity –A measure of how strongly an individual holds a particular opinion Latency –Political opinions that are held but not yet expressed Salience –An individual’s belief that an issue is important or relevant to him or her Manifest Opinion –A widely shared and consciously held view

Measuring Public Opinion Problems with Polls –Sampling Error –Polling Questions –Push Polls “Political Telemarketing” to push away from a candidate –Telephone Polling Problems Over ¼ have no landline People unresponsive –Internet Polling –Quota Sampling Selection bias and non-response bias Quota Sampling ck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html

Measuring Public Opinion Public Opinion Polls –A snapshot of the opinions and preferences of the people at a specific moment in time and as expressed in response to a specific question An event can change this view suddenly –May reveal a latent position –Sampling error The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population has been interviewed – due to sample not being chosen scientifically –As elections near pollsters often change from eligible voters to likely voters Can cause a dramatic change

Measuring Public Opinion Using scientific methods modern polls have a high probability of being correct using small sample sizes (often about 1500)

Measuring Public Opinion Poll Questions can be influenced by: –Type of question Yes/No questions –Sometimes difficult to indicate true position –Influence of words/phrases Ex. “…fighting terrorism”, “…helping children” –Order questions are asked –Interaction with interviewer

Measuring Public Opinion

Public Opinion and the Political Process Politicians –Source of power when dealing with other politicians –Helps shape campaigns around issues identified as most important Voters –Use to determine who to vote for, esp. in primaries Contributors –Who is viable “What I want, is to get done what the people desire to be done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.”

Public Opinion and the Political Process Latent

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Political Ideology

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Conservatism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Traditional Conservatives

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Social Conservatives (New Right)

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Conservatism