 Elections: The voice of the people. › Frequently interpreted as voters acceptance or rejection of a party platform. › Affected by many factors and give only broad indications of public opinion.

 Interest Groups: Private organizations whose members share certain views and work to shape public policy. › Pressure government officials to shape public policy in specific ways. › Difficult to determine how many citizens support such groups and how strongly they hold these views.

 Media › Often said to “mirror” public opinion. › Not accurate “mirrors” because they may reflect only a vocal minority.

 Personal Contracts › Political leaders try to argue public opinions by addressing groups. › Reading mail, visiting home districts, etc. › Difficult to read public opinion.

 Polls: Best measure of public opinion › Collect info about public opinion by asking people questions.

 Polls that sought to read the public’s mind by asking the same question of a large number of people. › Quantity over Quality › Does not guarantee accurate cross section of population.

 Literary Digest mailed postcard ballots to more than 10 million people and received answers from more than 2 million.  Compiled their list from automobile registries and telephone directories  Asked them to predict the outcome of the upcoming election between Gov. Alfred Landon (Rep) and FDR (Dem).

 The results said that Gov. Landon would easily defeat FDR.  Actually, FDR ended up defeating Landon with more than 60%of the popular vote.  What do you think happened? Why were the results so far off?

 Digest failed to consider that at the time of the election, the U.S. was in the middle of a depression and millions could not afford cars or their own telephone.  Failed to reach the poor, unemployed, blue collar workers and most of the ethnic minorities.  These were the people Roosevelt and the Democrats drew their greatest supporters.

 Step 1: Define the Universe › Figure out which groups should be polled.

 Step 2: Construct a sample (a slice of the total universe) › Random samples are drawn based on the law of probability. Ex. Taking every 5 th person on a list › Quota Sample: a sample deliberately constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of a given universe.  17.5% of a universe is Af. Am. so, quota sample will have 17.5% Af. Am.  51.3% is female, so quota sample will have 51.3%women.

 Step 3: Prepare Valid Questions › Wording can affect the reliability of any poll. › Don’t use “loaded” emotionally charged words or terms that are difficult to understand. › Do not word questions in such a way that shapes answer

 Step 4: Conduct Interviews › Face to face, by mail, by phone, etc. › Most use proper techniques to avoid invalid results.

 Step 5: Analyze and Report Findings › Computers help pollsters tabulate and interpret results.