+ Unit II Module 2 Measuring Public Opinion AP Gov Miller

+ Objectives By the end of this module, SWBAT Identify the relationship between public opinion and political ideology Describe the different general types of political issues Compare and contrast the different polling instruments used in America today Explain the difference between internal and external validity errors when polling

+ Ideology & Opinion Public opinion is a “snapshot” of the current ideological lean of the American voting population Dynamic, constantly shifting depending on Domestic events Foreign events Salient political issues of the day Elected officials need info regarding opinion to inform future decisions and receive feedback for past decisions

+ Political Polls Polls are research instruments designed to measure certain aspects of public opinion Some are broad in their scope but most are geared toward gathering data regarding certain political issues Many different types of organizations conduct polls for different reasons

+ Issue Types Salient issues – issues that are timely, current and “trending” now Stable issues – issues that politicians feel comfortable discussing in detail Congruent issues – elected officials feel similarly to their constituents and act accordingly

+ Issue Types Examples Salient issues – Passé issues – - Stable issues – - Unstable issues – - Congruent issues – - Incongruent issues –

+ The Good, The Bad and The Ugly “Good” polls have the following characteristics Scientific in nature featuring a randomly selected sample Proper, unbiased phrasing in questions Repeatability, consistency Non-biased interpretation of data

+ Tracking Polls Tracking polls are best examples of “good” polls Fit all the good poll categories Large randomly selected sample Consistent data collected over a long period of time Non-biased in language and data interpretation

+ Tracking Polls Tracking polls are great … but very expensive Their high cost prohibits their frequent usage More likely to be done by Consulting firms (Gallup) Media firms (prominent periodicals) Universities Almost never used by candidates or political parties

+ The Good, The Bad and the Ugly “Bad” polls abound throughout the political landscape Can be taken before an election or vote  straw poll Or Can be taken after an election or vote  exit poll These are used quite often by candidates, parties, and special interest groups due to lower cost and/or amount of time/effort needed compared to tracking poll

+ Straw Polls What’s wrong with them? Sample size often too small and/or sample population not randomly selected Language could be biased due to lack of proper editing Interpretation could be biased due to a partisan influence (i.e. straw poll taken by Democrats or Republicans vs. tracking poll taken by a university)

+ Exit Polls What’s wrong with them? Rely on volunteers to self-report (non scientific due to lack of random sampling) Not conducted by professionals, usually done by campaign volunteers or interns (errors or bias present) Responses subject to Hawthorne Effect – people changing behavior when they know they are being observed (example: African American intern conducting an exit poll in Orange County)

+ Why Conduct Straw, Exit Polls? Compared to tracking polls they are Cheaper Quicker to conduct Easier to analyze Need to conduct more of them and “average” the results to minimize the margin of error and approximate the accuracy of a tracking poll

+ The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly The “ugly” poll would be the notorious push poll Poll only in name, really a cheap campaign stunt Straw, exit polls are flawed by circumstance whereas push polls are malicious and flawed by design

+ Push Polls Push polls are cleverly designed to infect voters’ minds with biases against one candidate or position on an issue in favor of another Verbiage, presentation sounds and feels like a poll but it’s really misinformation This phenomenon happens often in US History Pro-life (assumes opposition is “pro-death”) Anti-federalists (don’t have a position of their own, simply opposing Federalist ideology) No Child Left Behind (opposition to this bill is all about harming children)

+ Push Polls Too dirty a tactic more national or gubernatorial candidates to use publicly Could get away with them in smaller state and local elections, however, with less media scrutiny Tactic works best with Unstable political issues Very close to the date of the election

+ Technology Issues The media by which the poll is taken can greatly effect results FDR vs. Alf Landon Straw polls conducted via telephone provided data that indicated that Landon would win in a landslide Of course FDR crushed him What went wrong?

+ Technology Issues In the 1930s only the elite and middle class has regular access to home phones Therefore, the sample was not representative of the American electorate Results were heavily skewed This is an example of an internal validity error – a serious flaw with the polling instrument itself that can ruin the data it collects

+ Check Yourself Researchers must always protect the sanctity of the data – don’t mess with it and accept it for what it is 1950s – Eisenhower vs. Stevenson First presidential election to be predicted by computer Repeated computer analysis indicates that Stevenson is going to get hammered by Eisenhower Researchers still predict that Stevenson was going to win

+ Check Yourself Researchers were biased, Stevenson was “one of their own” a preeminent intellectual Felt bias in his favor, concluded that computer must be wrong, even though it was remarkably accurate This type of problem is an external validity error – researcher allows her/his bias to skew interpretation of the data

+ Summary Politicians use polls to Determine what issues to address and which issues to avoid Glean information during Election Day Attempt to confuse and infuriate voters for their benefit Align themselves with popular trending political concepts

+ Summary In an ideal world, every poll would be a tracking poll but They are too costly and difficult to conduct by non-professionals Many politicians see no need for them since public opinion is so fickle anyway Many politicians more concerned with steering public opinion than determining it

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