The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Neil Leary, AIACC Science Director 2 nd AIACC Regional Workshop for Asia and Pacific Islands Manila, 2-5 November 2004

2 Background GEF enabling project –climate change focal area Geographic scope: Global Project period: Implementing Agency: UNEP Executing Agencies: START & TWAS Collaboration between IPCC, UNEP, START, and TWAS

3 Funding GEF Grant$7.5 million Developing country partner co-financing$1.8 million USAID $300 thousand CIDA $100 thousand USEPA $50 thousand Rockefeller Foundation $40 thousand Total project cost$9.79 million

4 AIACC Objectives Build scientific and technical capacity to support National Communications and developing country participation in int’l science Advance scientific understanding of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation opportunities Link science and policy communities for adaptation planning

5 Means for achieving objectives Implement regional V&A assessments –“Learning-By-Doing” capacity building Supplement by technical support, mentoring, training, and networking Engage stakeholders Work with National Communications Synthesis Workshops, publications, science & stakeholder meetings

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7 Topics of Regional Assessments (Number of projects addressing each topic noted in parentheses) Agriculture/food security (14) Water resources (13) Land use (7) Rural livelihoods (5) Coastal zones (5) Biodiversity (3) Aquatic ecosystems, fisheries (3) Human health (2) Extreme events (2) Tourism (1)

8 AIACC Regional Studies in Asia MongoliaAgriculture Rangelands Water Trends in vulnerability to climate Modeling grassland, crop, water impacts Adaptations Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam Water Agriculuture Land use Ecosystems Modeling hydrologic changes, land use, crop yield changes Vulnerability to hydrologic changes & extremes Adaptations Sri LankaPlantation agriculture Model tea & coconut responses to climate variation & change Social & economic impacts Adaptations Philippines, Indonesia Water Agriculture Ecosystems Land-use/cover changes, forest, water, agriculture impacts Social & economic impacts Adaptations ChinaWater Agriculture Land-use IA to identify social vulnerabilities Multi-criteria evaluation of adaptations

9 AIACC Regional Studies in Small Island States CaribbeanHuman HealthInvestigate/model health responses to climate (dengue) Future health impacts of climate change Adaptations Fiji, Cook Islands Water Coastal infrastructure Natural resources Integrated assessment models extended to include human dimensions Vulnerability of coastal communities Adaptations Seychelles Comoros Tourism Natural resources Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources Adaptations

10 AIACC Accomplishments (1) Contributing to goals of UNFCCC –Established strong ties to 2nd National Communications –Contributed to NAPA guidelines & workshops –Adding to UNFCCC V&A methods/tools database –Participated in UNFCCC expert meetings on adaptation –Contributed to UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework

11 AIACC Accomplishments (2) Advancing knowledge & methods –15 papers published in peer-reviewed journals –7 papers published in AIACC Working Papers 20 more in review –Advanced methods for: climate scenario generation vulnerability indicators livelihood approaches integrated assessment modeling benefit/cost analysis of adaptation –Contributing to UNFCCC’s database of V&A methods and tools

12 AIACC Accomplishments (3) Contributing to international science –IPCC 4th Assessment Report Contributed to outline & plans for IPCC AR4 33(!) AIACC investigators chosen to be authors of IPCC AR4 –Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2 projects contributing to MEA reports –Global Environmental Change & Food Security (GECAFS) –Presentations in international science meetings

13 AIACC Accomplishments (4) Building capacity –Capacity for scientific/technical V&A assessment >200 scientists and >60 students in 46 developing countries have benefited from “learning-by-doing” and training activities –Capacity to engage with stakeholders and formulate adaptation strategies and policies Have established networks that link science & stakeholder institutions from 62 countries –Stakeholder knowledge & awareness Numerous local workshops with stakeholders –South-south capacity transfers AIACC participants have conducted several successful south-south capacity transfer activities

14 Upcoming AIACC Activities Completion of regional assessments by early 2005 More peer-reviewed publications, technical reports Synthesis of AIACC regional studies in 2005 – 2 books planned Outreach to stakeholders, national communications Planning for follow-on to AIACC

15 AIACC Synthesis of common lessons Two themes selected for synthesis in 2005 –Vulnerability –Adapatation Book to be written on each theme –Case study papers from regional assessments & synthesis paper Synthesis meetings to prepare the papers –Vulnerability: March2005, Bellagio, Italy –Adaptation: June 2005, Venue TBD

16 Follow-up to AIACC Build on the accomplishments of AIACC –Apply what we have learned to adaptation planning and measures –Broaden and deepen capacity building –Add to our scientific and technical knowledge to improve decision making –Sustain & enhance networks we’ve established

17 New Projects Adaptation pilot projects –Medium size regional projects Asia-Pacific; Africa; Latin America and Caribbean New regional assessments –Policy-focused, participatory assessments –Technical assistance, capacity building delivered by distributed networks in South

Thank you

19 Preliminary Lessons (1) Stakeholder participation in assessment is critical for generating and communicating knowledge that gets used –Targeted to decision making needs –Integrate knowledge, experiences of practitioners –Credibility with affected groups, decision makers Requires set of skills most researchers don’t have Relationships important –Relationships being established between science and stakeholder institutions one of the more important legacies of AIACC project

20 Preliminary lessons (2) Experience of coping with and managing climate risks is rich source of information from which to learn about –System sensitivities, resilience and capacities –Determinants of vulnerability –Strategies to cope, adapt

21 Preliminary Lessons (3) Important to look at multiple scales –Sub-units within a region, community etc have varying degrees and types of vulnerability, capacities to respond –Cross-scale interactions important –Focusing on single scale may lead to misdiagnosed capacities, vulnerabilities, thresholds prescription of ineffective adaptations

22 Preliminary Lessons (4) Important to look at multiple futures –Socioeconomic as well as climate futures –Socioeconomic drivers probably more important drivers of vulnerability than climate Multiple scenarios needed to investigate implications of different possible futures for vulnerability and adaptation

23 Preliminary Lessons (5) Best method for constructing climate change scenarios depends on assessment objectives –Regional climate modeling not always needed nor best –Fidelity to GCM derived climate scenarios not critically important for investigation of vulnerabilities –Guided sensitivity analyses important first step

24 Preliminary Lessons (6) Livelihoods is useful concept for vulnerability assessment –Changes in climate & other stresses restrict or expand livelihood opportunities –People adapt their livelihood strategies in response to changing opportunities –Consequences for their well-being will depend on how effective these adaptations are Livelihoods integrate consequences of multiple stresses on human well-being Vulnerabilities vary for different livelihood groups