INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, R. Mathew, E. Scoccimarro
Advertisements

WCRP polar climate predictability initiative Vladimir Ryabinin
MOC, Hurricanes and the IPCC AR5 Gerald A. Meehl NCAR.
Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during Jae-Kyung E. Schemm Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses A. Bellucci 1, S. Gualdi 1,2, E. Scoccimarro 2, A. Navarra 1,2,
Observed Tropical Expansion: Impact on the Hydrological and Energy Cycles New Investigator Research Summary Joel Norris (Lead PI, UC San Diego) Robert.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Climatic impacts of stochastic fluctuations in air–sea fluxes Paul Williams Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK.
WP12. Hindcast and scenario studies on coastal-shelf climate and ecosystem variability and change Why? (in addition to the call text) Need to relate “today’s”
Climate modeling Current state of climate knowledge – What does the historical data (temperature, CO 2, etc) tell us – What are trends in the current observational.
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GG 101 – Spring 2005 Boston University Myneni L31:
28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, NJ Evolution of Stratospheric.
SOCOL activities at IAC and PMOD/WRC 1 J. Anet, F. Arfeuille, S. Brönnimann, M. Calisto, T. Egorova, N. Hochmuth, C. Hoyle, T. Peter, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz,
Liu, J. et al., PNAS, 2012 World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, August 17, 2014 Jiping Liu University at Albany, State University of.
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel Wassila M. Thiaw and Kingtse C. Mo Climate Prediction.
The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change.
INGV Mediterranean Sea Level Rise Scenarios from CIRCE S. Dobricic on behalf of the CIRCE project team: M. Adani, S. Gualdi, S. Somot, W. May, S. Castellari,
US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.
Potential Predictability of Drought and Pluvial Conditions over the Central United States on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales Siegfried Schubert, Max.
NACLIM GA, 14 OCT 2014 Predictability of climate in the North Atlantic and Arctic Sectors: GREENICE and EPOCASA projects Noel Keenlyside Geophysical Institute,
CLIMARES, NERSC, October 2009 Arctic climate and future scenarios Ola M. Johannessen and Mats Bentsen Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center.
Using CCI data in the SPECS research project
© Crown copyright Met Office CLIVAR Climate of the 20 th Century Project Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter, David Fereday January 2009.
SMHI in the Arctic Lars Axell Oceanographic Research Unit Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
Interactions between volcanic eruptions and El Niño: Studies with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model C. Timmreck, M. Thomas, M. Giorgetta, M. Esch, H.-F.
Preliminary Results of Global Climate Simulations With a High- Resolution Atmospheric Model P. B. Duffy, B. Govindasamy, J. Milovich, K. Taylor, S. Thompson,
Use of CCSM3 and CAM3 Historical Runs: Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Variability and Sensitivity Bruce T. Anderson, Boston University.
Downscaling Future Climate Scenarios for the North Sea 2006 ROMS/TOMS Workshop, Alcalá de Henares, 6-8 November Bjørn Ådlandsvik Institute of Marine Research.
Coordinated by: CARBOOCEAN Integrated ProjectContract No (GOCE) Global Change and Ecosystems Core Theme V report on future work.
The early 20th century warming in the Arctic – A possible mechanism Lennart Bengtsson Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany ESSC, University.
Status of the Sea Ice Model Testing of CICE4.0 in the coupled model context is underway Includes numerous SE improvements, improved ridging formulation,
ETH On-going and planned projects with ECHAM Martin Wild, Doris Folini, Adeline Bichet, Maria Hakuba, Christoph Schär IACETH.
1.Introduction Prediction of sea-ice is not only important for shipping but also for weather as it can have a significant climatic impact. Sea-ice predictions.
© Crown copyright Met Office AR5 Proposed runs for CMIP5 John Mitchell, after Karl Taylor, Ron Stouffer and others ENES, arch 2009.
Ben Kirtman University of Miami-RSMAS Disentangling the Link Between Weather and Climate.
CLIMARES WP 110 Climate model scenarios for the Arctic region for the next decades Current state: Klaus Dethloff, AWI WP Leader: Erich Roeckner, MPI Planing.
Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu.
The role of Mediterranean mesoscale eddies on the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region by A. Bellucci 1, S. Gualdi 1,2, E. Scoccimarro 2, A. Sanna.
Jim Hurrell OceanObs September 2009 OceanObs09: Ocean Information for Society Day III: Delivering Services to Society Session B: Forecasting Decadal-to-Centennial.
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.
Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Modelling: The Connection Between the Hadley and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation M. A. Giorgetta (1), E. Manzini (2),
Contribution of MPI to CLIMARES Erich Roeckner, Dirk Notz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios Climate Data Analysis for Crop Modelling workshop Kasetsart University,
RT5, WP5.2 : Evaluation of processes and phenomena Objectives : Analyse the capability of the models to reproduce and predict the major modes of variations.
Multidecadal simulations of the Indian monsoon in SPEEDY- AGCM and in a coupled model Annalisa Bracco, Fred Kucharski and Franco Molteni The Abdus Salam.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 The Uses of Marine Surface Data in Climate Research David Parker, Hadley Centre, Met Office MARCDAT-2, Met Office, Exeter,
VOCALS-UK Len Shaffrey and Thomas Toniazzo Walker Institute, University of Reading John Constable ‘Cloud Study’ 1822.
A new strategy, based on the adjustment of initialized simulations, to understand the origin of coupled climate models errors Benoît Vannière, Eric Guilyardi,
The 2 nd phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment Randal Koster GMAO, NASA/GSFC
WP11 Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios. Objectives and deliverables To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation.
Summer Monsoon – Global Ocean Interactions Ben Kirtman George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Acknowledgements: Randy Wu and.
WGCM19 Report from the French groups
Climate Change Climate change scenarios of the
Cross-Cutting Topic DECADAL PREDICTION.
Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes
Task 3.2 : Arctic warming impacts : role of air-sea coupling
AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS
Edwin Gerber (New York University)
Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using a fully coupled OAGCM
WP4.1 : Exploiting CCI products in CMIP like experiments
Precipitation variability over Arizona and
An Approach to Enhance Credibility of Decadal-Century Scale Arctic
Study Monsoon Precipitating Cloud-Covered Regions Using Results From Various CMIP Climate Models Jianbo Liu.
WP3.10 : Cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs over the Mediterranean domain
Decadal prediction in the Pacific
Decadal Climate Prediction at BSC
Frank Bryan & Gokhan Danabasoglu NCAR
Presentation transcript:

INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen. Overall objectives: 1.provide a set of short-term climate change projections performed with a global model that can be used both as boundary conditions for regional models and to perform climate change impact studies in the Arctic region 2.use climate simulations to assess climate variability and the possible climate change signal in the Arctic region Two major tasks: Task 1: Representation of the troposphere-stratosphere interaction and its effects on the simulation of the Arctic climate Task 2: Improved initialization of the sea-ice in climate simulations

CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen. Work-plan: Two streams of simulations will be performed: Stream 1 (year 1): Short-term projections ( ) performed with the high-horizontal resolution CMCC model, starting from available oceanic analysis and sea-ice initial conditions; Stream 2 (year 2): Short-term projections ( ) performed with the stratosphere resolving CMCC model, starting from improved oceanic and sea-ice initial conditions

The experimental design (CMIP5 protocol) CMCC: Three-members ensembles with CMCC model. Ocean initial conditions from existing analyses. The short-term projections performed with the CMCC global coupled model Observed GHGs & Aerosols Scenarios GHGs & Aerosols … 2005 …… …… CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen. 30 years

Ensemble of integrations of the period with start dates every 5 years (1965, 1970, …, 2005) and 3 member for each start date;. Oceanic initial conditions: Ocean Analysis (CMCC-INGV) with observed anomalies on top of model climatology;. Atmospheric ini. cond.: AMIP run;. Sea-Ice ini. cond.: Ocean Analysis for the sea-ice cover distribution and model climatology for the sea-ice thickness;. GHGs and aerosols from observations for and from scenarios (according to CMIP5) for ; High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

OCEAN (dynamics and physics) NEMO/ORCA2 (Barnier et al. 2006) SEA-ICE: LIM (Timmermann et al. 2005) ATMOSPHERE (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 - L31 Roeckner et al. (2006) T63-L95 (stratosphere resolving) (Manzini et al. 2006) COUPLER Oasis 3 Valcke et al. (2004) COUPLER Heat Flux Water Flux Momentum Flux Global Atmosphere Global Ocean & Sea-Ice SST Sea-ice The high resolution CMCC-MODEL High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation Mean SST JFM JAS OBS (HadISST) MODEL MODEL - OBS CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

global mean sea-surface temperature Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

SEA-ICE COVER JFM JAS OBSCMCC-MED OBSCMCC-MED Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.

OBSCMCC-MED JFM JAS OBSCMCC-MED SEA-ICE COVER Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting October 2009, Bergen.