On Track to Graduation: A Profile of Sixth-Grade Participants in May 2014 Analyses Performed by: Mindy Hightower King, Ph.D. Center on Education and Lifelong Learning Indiana University, Bloomington

Balfanz, R. & Herzog, L. (2006). Keeping Middle Grades Students on Track to Graduation: Initial Analyses and Implications. Unpublished data presented to the Philadelphia Education Fund. 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of ‘Falling Off Track’ Attending school 80% or less of the time Receiving a poor final behavior mark Failing Math Failing English Analyses conducted by Johns Hopkins University showed that 6 th graders with all four risk factors had only a 10% chance of graduating on time and a 20% chance of graduating one year late.

“Adolescence and living in neighborhoods with concentrated poverty have been shown to negatively impact student attendance, behavior, and effort.” - Philadelphia Education Fund Risk were also calculated for each factor… 6 th graders who attended school 80% or less Have a 1 in 5 chance of reaching 12 th grade on time 14% of these students graduate on time or within an extra year 6 th graders who receive a poor final behavior mark Have a 1 in 4 chance of reaching 12 th grade on time 17% of these students graduate on time or within an extra year 6th graders who fail math Have a 1 in 5 chance of reaching 12 th grade on time 21% of these students graduate on time or within an extra year 6th graders who fail English Have a 1 in 8 chance of reaching 12 th grade on time 16% of these students graduate on time or within an extra year

College Mentors for Kids Analyses: Chapters Number of Students Percent of Sample Ball State1216% Indiana University79% Purdue5675% Total 75100%

Risk Factors Analyzed: School Day Attendance (<= 80% attendance) Poor Final Behavior Mark (One or more suspension during the school year) Failing Math (Earning an F in Math during spring semester) Failing English (Earning an F in English during spring semester)

General Results Attendance / Behavior RangeMean  School Day Attendance 76% - 100%96%  Number of Suspensions Course Grades % Earning an A % Earning a B % Earning a C % Earning a D % Earning an F  Math Grade: Spring of 6 th Grade 24%33%21%5%7%  English Grade: Spring of 6 th Grade 24%28%25%8%15%

Risk-Specific Results (N=75) Risk Factors Number of Students Percent of Sample  School Day Attendance (<= 80% attendance) 23%  Poor Final Behavior Mark (One or more suspension) 34%  Failing Math (Earning an F in Math during spring semester) 57%  Failing English (Earning an F in English during spring semester) 1115%

The Bottom Line: How many risk factors did students have? Number of Risk Factors Number of Students Percent of Sample  None 5877%  One Risk Factor (3 had behavioral risk; 1 failed to meet the attendance threshold; 11 failed math or English) 1317%  Two Risk Factors (One failed at Math and had behavioral risk factor; the other failed both math and ELA) 37%

Conclusions: Most College Mentors for Kids 6 th graders (77%) displayed none of the four predictors of “falling off track”. Of the 24% of students with one or more risk factor, most only displayed one risk factor. Only three students displayed two risk factors – for each, this included a failed subject and behavioral risk or two failed subjects. Taken together, the results suggest that most College Mentors for Kids 6 th graders are on track to graduate from high school on time, although there are a few who may be showing some early signs of risk.