Pathways to the Futures of Education Anticipating change and taking informed actions Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for Education Ko‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15
Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD Vision Foresight Strategy LLC “Reframing the future.”
FUTURES STUDIES Understanding and anticipating change in society
Understand and anticipate change in society… and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.
Two Complementary Aspects Analytic: understanding and anticipating change Synthetic: reframing expectations and preferences
Foresight: Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.
Elements of Our Work Historical analysis Images of the future Theories of change and stabilityTrends & emerging issues Forecasting Preferred futures Innovation & creativity
Theories of Change How and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change? “Long wave” theories of economic change Diffusion of technology throughout society Pathways of institutional change
Scanning and Emerging Issues Analysis Searching for signals of potentially important developments. Anticipating future public policy issues Exploring future technologies Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies The “new normal” Rapid maturation, “mainstreaming” Academic/scientific exploration Fringe thinking
Who Uses Foresight?
SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE It’s happened before, and it will happen again
The “Roadmap” in the 1950s
The “Roadmap” Today…?
TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUES Scanning for Signals of Emerging Change
TrendsEmerging Issues Trends vs. Emerging Issues
Generational change Digitization (everything) Ubiquitous internet access Shrinking middle class Rising income inequality Rising global economic competition Decline of US student performance Rising cost of college ed Decreasing funding for public education Rising dissatisfaction with ed outcomes Shift to career readiness A Few Trends…
Adaptive learning Alternative credentialing Augmented/virtual reality Artificial intelligence Big data Co-production/co- learning Internet of things Learning analytics Nanodegrees Online education Open educational resources Tighter coupling of employer interests and educational design …And Some Emerging Issues
IMAGES OF THE FUTURE Visions shape actions and perceptions
Unwinding Higher Ed The Reformed Institution Bifurcation of Learning Competing Images of the Future
RESPONSES TO CHANGE Anticipating the reactions of stakeholders
Three Basic Responses to Change
TYPES OF STRATEGIES Selecting the best approach to achieving goals
A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals Strategy
ConflictCompetitionCoincidence Three Categories of Strategies
Control the dynamic Divide and conquer Hit them where it hurts Deterrence Take small bites Negotiate while advancing Strategies of Conflict
Segmentation (of the market) Differentiation (within the market) Cost leadership (within the market) Strategies of Competition
Stepping stone Building block EcosystemNetworkSeeding Strategies of Coincidence
Now let’s play with some of these ideas…
4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Foresight By Richard Lum Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight. The book will: Provide a complete A-to-Z foresight process in simple and straight forward language Outline the exercises for running your own workshops Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future December 2015
Mahalo.