India – a growing player Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited Frankfurt – 15 th March’06
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Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %) Year China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7% Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37% Source – WEF
Davos 2006 Source – FT
The Productivity Advantage India a usa pharma view USA 1 chemist FTE 1 chemist FTE 70 h/week 50 h/week $ 800 monthly $ 12,000 monthly Better education x 1,3 Longer working time x 1,3 Lower cost x 20 Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
Europe - retirees grow faster than workers - fertility rates lower Japan - expansion of grey segment USA - over 50’s 88m will grow to 118m (2020) - obesity China - one child families - get older before becoming wealthy - labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage - rural to urban flow India - will remain very young - source of the extra needed global workforce The Ageing Advantage
The R&D Investment Advantage Most attractive R&D Investment locations: 1. China 2. USA 3. India 4. Japan 5. UK Source – UNCTAD 2005
Qualified Scientists & Engineers Global India players with Alliances English speaking TRIPs compliant IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions Source – UNCTAD 2005 The R&D Investment Advantage -reasons why
Genetic engineering research 165 Transgenic work 55 Therapeutics 25 Basic research 28 Universities > 250 Source – Dept. of Bio-technology The R&D Investment Advantage - research institutions in India
4 th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower 2 nd largest in terms of speaking English 3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry 345k IT, USA 75k Knowledge super power Lead by a Scientist as President Diaspora network (25m across 120 countries) The world’s largest free nation US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT The Knowledge Advantage
The State of European Science Teaching Source – Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Winter 2006 “This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of the time. In addition, 13% of science classes are not taught in a laboratory at all” Laboratories in UK state schools: Excellent5% Good29% Basic/uninspiring41% Unsafe/unsatisfactory25%
GDP World growth marginally less in 06 than 05 (+4.3%) USA expansion at a slower growth than 05 (+3.6%) Eurozone – expected to perform better than USA Asia : PRC – slightly slower growth to prevent hard landing Japan – sustain current growth India – increasing growth rate Chindia – 40% population, 8% economy Largest foreign affairs caucus in US Congress (180) 74,000 demonstrations reported in 2005 in China The Economic Growth Advantage
$b 2001/ / / / / But still only at 10% of PRC levels The FDI Advantage
$m Source – Citigroup Investment by top 15 Indian Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies
Investment by foreign Pharma companies
Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI) Microsoft Global Services (MGSI) Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre (GTSC) Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI) Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC) Investment by Microsoft in India
Manufacturing growth ‘90’ Chinese manufaturing +12% (90-03) - India manufacturing +6.5% Scope for improvement of Government Policies Revitalisation of agriculture Further privatisation Further encouragement of R&D Prosperous middle class 300m strong The Potential for Improvement Advantage
34 News TV channels. Oldest 13 years old (NDTV) 5000 newspapers, circulation 17m. 12 with 1m copies each 200m daily readers. 21m new daily readers 2003/2005, +14% 50% rural / 50% urban Indian are hungry for information Source: World Business The Information Advantage
High quality healthcare Patients from developed & developing countries Growing Privatisation International standards Low Costs: Thailand India - Open heart $14250 $ Hysterectomy $ 2012 $ Knee surgery $7000 $4500 Better access through airports likely The Medical Tourism Advantage
The Global Generic Pharma companies Source : Company /Financial reports & presentations Annual Sales (US$ Millions)
% % % % % % % Source – Citigroup *DMF – Drug Master Files Chindia share of all API* filings
$b USA W Europe 9 14 Japan 3 4 Rest of America 6 9 ROW Total Source: Frost & Sullivan The Global Generic Market
The Generic Pharma Landscape Fundamental drivers of growth High healthcare costs Total Healthcare Spending, % of GDP Source: World Bank, DB Global Pharma Report Aug 2005, OECD Health Data 2005 (1) – 2002, UBS European Pharma Report, Sep 2005
The Generic Pharma Landscape Fundamental drivers of growth Demographics Source: World Bank, DB Global Pharma Report Aug 2005, OECD Health Data 2005 (1) – 2002, UBS European Pharma Report, Sep 2005 Estimated % of regional population over 60
The Generic Pharma Landscape Fundamental drivers of growth Patent Expiries Source : Global Generic Drug Stocks Citigroup Smith Barney, September 2004, IMS Health : MIDAS, MAT June 2005 Patent expiry, $ Bn Revenues
The Generic Pharma Landscape Fundamental drivers of growth Source : Global Generic Drug Stocks Citigroup Smith Barney, September 2004, IMS Health : MIDAS, MAT June 2005 % Growth Constant $ Generics 11% 20% 30% -2% 13% 20% 13% 9% 19% 23% 36% 8% 4% 36% 10% 2% 31% 38% % Share (Volume)% Share (Value) 8% 5% 8% 2% 20% 16% 7% 2%
Ranbaxy Strategic Direction US $ 1 Bn US $ 5 Bn US $ 2 Bn Amongst the Top 5 generic Companies Significant income from proprietary products 2012 Growth through - Organic - Inorganic
Competitive Advantages Aggressive Home Market
Competitive Advantages Cost of Manufacture Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, MohaliDosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib Highest number of FDA approved plants outside the US
Competitive Advantages R&D I R&D III R&D II R&D IV Cost of Innovation
Potential Downsides
Potential downside – Asian Flu
Potential downside – Oil prices Source – BLS, ELA, The Conference Board
Potential downside - Infrastructure Source – FT
Potential downside – Counterfeit products Origin of fake products seized in EU in 2004 Rank 1. China 2. Thailand 3. Hong Kong 4. Turkey 5. USA Source: FT Countries where fake pharma products seized in 2005 Rank 1. Russia 2. China 3. South Korea 4. Peru 5. Columbia Source: PSI
Asia economic strength is returning Many advantages for India Some downsides The feeling in India a turning point has been reached and passed Summary
“We have all grown up learning the story of the unfinished voyage of Christopher Columbus setting sail to reach India, he discovered America. I now invite the people of America to complete the voyage of that great explorer” Manmohan Singh Prime Minister of India July 2005.”
Thank You