CEE Canada Think Day March 9, CEE Think Day on Canada Energy Issues Overview on Key Energy Sector Developments & Issues Roland Priddle

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, First a word of appreciation… …to those who have done so much, particularly in the last 5 years, to make Canada the global energy hotspot that it now is…

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Why Canada? Extraordinary policy and regulatory stability since mid-80’s (recent political change doesn’t mean policy change) Great experience of market functioning in NAFTA context (good public buy-in) Where else can you purchase in-place oil (well, bitumen) for 1 cent/barrel?* * Chevron: 7.5 billion barrels in place for $70 million—announcement March 2, 2006

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Where else can you grow? Colombia? Nigeria? Peru? Russia (good luck BP)? Venezuela? Other OPEC and Mexico, doors are locked Trinidad obviously interests, N Sea good opportunities for big projects in the north, “work-overs” in the south, plus Buzzard Just what are the others…? OK you Texans, USA Gulf of Mexico!

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Highlights Oil sands again and again (Dr Knapp) CBM--want to learn more (Mr Kin Chow) Significant high productivity onshore gas wells still coming-in (Talisman) Conventional gas shows surprising strength. Issues: –Capability of drilling fleet –(as always) Future prices

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Consumer-level dereg? Gas—patchwork Electricity—an even worse patchwork Can’t see political will to significantly advance either

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Lowlights East Coast gas: Sable, Deep Panuke and the continental slope disappointments East Coast oil: no large new pools-- working off the discovery inventory of the 1980’s West Coast oil and gas: 1960’s time warp

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Still unfolding Mackenzie Gas Project (MGP) Mackenzie gas (and oil) potential outside of the three MGP anchor fields (watch for results of Devon’s ‘06 well) Alaska pipeline: –New Canadian minister*, new energy –Who are we waiting for? (*Jim Prentice, Indian & Northern Affairs—why? Because “pipelines in the North=First Nations”?)

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, And what about utilities? Didn’t suffer from Enron blight Exited Argentina just in time Cdn pipes ambitious for growth: –Enbridge “Spearhead”, “Gateway”(?), TCPL Foothills Alaska Cdn utilities present attractive targets for larger USA companies: –Westcoast, Terasen

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Issues There are no big policy, fiscal or regulatory issues for the western basin First fundamental issue is “will global environment support currently-foreseen activity levels?” Second issue is “can the industry mobilize the people and materiel to support those levels while reasonably containing costs?”

CEE Canada Think Day March 9, Conclusion The Western Basin looks extremely strong The East Coast has been rescued by high commodity prices The West Coast continues in a 30-year plus limbo The North frankly hasn’t been handled well by anyone (exception: the Norman Wells project of the early 80’s)