CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR Roger Street Monirul Mirza PROGRAM ON ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP JANUARY 22-24, 2003

MAJOR OBJECTIVES To develop nationally consistent set of historical and future climate scenarios for the energy sector To provide guidance to impact researchers/users Revision of the energy sector chapter of the Canada Country Study

Major Deliverables Statement of energy sector historical and future scenarios needs through a web workshop Development of historical and future climate scenarios Energy sector climate impact report Examination of the conclusions of the Canada Country Study Energy Chapter On-going guidance on the scenarios

Web-Workshop for Scenarios Needs assessment A Web-Workshop organized during December, 2001 Comprised of five sessions –four main sessions and the concluding session 60 stakeholders registered Government (75%), Industry (12%), Consultants (12%) and Academia (1%)

Session I: State of Art Techniques for Scenarios Construction Principal Focus: Sources of the GCM data How scenarios are constructed from GCMs Downscaling techniques Uncertainties in GCM Scenarios Construction of Historical Scenarios Interpretation and Usefulness of Scenarios

Session I-Issues Raised Access to Climate Scenarios Utility of Downscaling Techniques The Need for Multiple Scenarios Challenge of Incorporating Extreme Weather Events into Scenarios Temporal and Spatial scale Issues

Session II-Climate Change Scenarios The Types of Scenarios Spatial and Temporal aspect of the scenarios Experience of use of scenarios in the Energy Sector

Session II-Issues Raised Use of scenarios in risk management Estimation of tolerable risk Cascading effect of uncertainties Use of current information for risk management

Session III-Scenarios for the Energy Sector Requirement of scenarios for the energy sector (fossil and renewable)

Session III-Issues Raised Understanding adaptive capacities Non uniform scenarios requirement for various stakeholders Use of Scarce modelling resources Supply of unnecessary information Engage key people in the industry to identify their needs

Session IV-Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Vulnerabilities to climate change Past adaptation measures incorporated in the energy sector Effectiveness of the past adaptation measures Future Adaptation measures and strategies

Session IV-Issues Raised Planning of the energy system to reduce vulnerability, damage and increase resiliency Adaptability of the Canadian Energy Sector Temporal and Spatial scale scenarios may not to attract stakeholders

Session V-Conclusions Energy sector demonstrated interest in scenarios of extremes and return periods Multiple scenarios are useful to capture uncertainties and tolerable risk More interactions between modellers and stakeholders

Session V-Conclusions Engagement of stakeholders is vital for identifying research requirements for scenarios, impacts and adaptation Alternative method of engagement must be sought

Energy Sub-SectorsTemp.Precip.Lake Water Level WindWaves Energy Exploration (Offshore) XX Energy Generation (Hydro)XXX Renewable (Wind)X Renewable (Solar)X Transmission (Electricity)XX Energy Demand (Electricity)X Energy Demand (Natural Gas) X Pipe LineX Transport by Ship (Coal)X Transportation of Crude Oil Summary of Climate Scenario Requirements

Energy Sub-SectorsSnow & Ice Cover Sea Ice StormCloud Cover Rel. Humidity Sea Level Pressure Energy Exploration (Offshore) X Energy Generation (Hydro) XX Renewable (Wind) Renewable (Solar)X Transmission (Electricity) XX Energy Demand (Electricity) X Energy Demand (Natural Gas) Pipe Line Transport by Ship (Coal) Transportation of Crude Oil X

Climate Impact Report- Approaches Vulnerability and Adaptation Approach Review of the Canada Country Study 1998-Energy Chapter Identification of gaps in Knowledge and approach Updated knowledge/information on vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) A Framework of VIA for the Energy Sector

Climate Impact Report Section I:Executive Summary Section II:Introduction Draws information from- -PERD proposal -Canada Country Study Energy Chapter -IPCC TAR -Web Workshop Synthesis

Climate Impact Report Section III: Historical & Future Climate Change Historical Climate Variability Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, sea level rise and lake water level Climate Change Scenarios Extreme Events-Historical & Future

Climate Impact Report Section IV: Canada Country Study- Identifying Gaps in VIA Impacts on Fossil and Renewable Energy Gaps in Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation

Climate Impact Report Section V: Canadian Energy Sector-Climate Variability and Change and Adaptation Three Case Studies on vulnerability and adaptation Attributes of climate vulnerability Present barriers of adaptation and future potentiality Vulnerability and adaptation framework

Development of Historical Scenarios Collection of Data from the Meteorological Services, Canada The data include: -Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, etc. Development of a software STECA (Statistical Tool for Extreme Climate Analyses)

Main Features of STECA A preprocessing facility for extraction of extreme value series A large number of probability distributions: Normal Gumbel Pearson Type 3 Weibull Log-Pearson Type 3 Log-normal

Main Features of STECA Two different parameter estimation methods : Method of moments Method of L-moments (probability weighted moments) Validation tests: Mann-Kendall test Mann-Whitney U test Box Plot Randomness Test Serial Correlation

Main Features of STECA Two non-parametric goodness-of-fit statistics: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) Climatic parameter computation routines: Degree Days Heat Index Wind Chill Heat / Cold Wave

SAMPLE STECA Menus

Historical Scenario Construction Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) Collected Data include: -Temperature -precipitation -wind speed -Relative Humidity 7848 Stations Data Extracted

Data Extraction for Analysis 466 stations extracted as class A station WMO 3/5 rules were applied -Not more than 5 total and 3 consecutive missing days in a month -For a total value, no missing values are allowed

Historical Climate Products General statistics Extreme values Return periods of annual max. and min Heating and cooling degree days Climate normals for and

Historical Climate Products Heat Index Windchill Frequency analysis of Heat Index and Windchill Percentiles Heat wave and cold wave

SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE Sample Statistics calculated by Method of Product Moment StationIDMeanStdCVSkewMaxMinLatLongStationName ALMA AROOSTOOK BON ACCORD BUCTOUCHE CHARLO A DOAKTOWN FREDERICTON A

Station5-Year10-Year20-year25-year50-Year75-year100-year SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE-MAX TEMP-GUMBEL METHOD

Future Directions Making Available Historical Climate Scenarios in the CCIS’ Website Training Workshop Energy Sector Climate Impact Report Release of the STECA Software Heating and Cooling degree days Extremes