New Hampshire Labor and Economic Trends Presented to the New Hampshire Senate and House of Representatives Ways and Means and Finance Committees Concord, New Hampshire December 15, 2011 Bruce DeMay, Director Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau New Hampshire Employment Security (603)

Recent labor market and economic highlights Unemployment has continued to decline through 2011 – both the level and the rate of unemployment, which dropped to 5.2% in November Unemployment Insurance Claims have continued to trend downward For the first six months of 2011, private covered employment averaged almost 6,500 higher than in the first six months of 2010; for the first six months of 2010, private covered employment averaged 10,300 less than for the same period in Most recent Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm employment shows continued job gains – total private wage and salary employment estimates are up 9,600 from November 2010 to November 2011 Broader measures of labor underutilization are showing improvement

Private Covered Employment, indexed to the December 2007 level, bottomed out in February 2010 and has shown slow progress since then

Beginning with July 2010, the change in over-the-year Private Covered Employment has been positive

The latest covered employment numbers available are for 2Q For the first six months of 2011 compared to the first six months of 2010: –Private business employment is up an average of almost 6,500 – about 1.3% –Private goods-producing employment is up almost 1,900 – up about 2.1% Construction – up about 900 Manufacturing – up almost 1,000 –Private service-providing employment is up almost 4,600 – up about 1.1% Professional and Technical Services – up over 1,100 Administrative and Waste Services – up 1,200 Healthcare and Social Assistance – up about 800 Accommodation and Food Services – up about 750 Retail Trade – up about 475 Finance and insurance – up almost 250

Total nonfarm employment has regained almost half of the jobs lost since late 2007 (seasonally adjusted) Total nonfarm (seasonally adjusted) November 2007 = 648,600 November 2009 = 621,300 November 2011 = 635,100

Total Unemployment in New Hampshire has steadily decreased since January 2010

Not seasonally adjusted, unemployment peaked in January- February-March 2010 at over 53,000. By January-February- March 2011, the average not seasonally adjusted unemployment had dropped to about 42,000. It averaged about 36,550 for the most recent three months (September-October-November 2011). Seasonally adjusted, unemployment peaked at over just under 50,000 in October-November-December Monthly unemployment is down 10,000 since then (averaging 39,420 for September-October-November 2011). Unemployment measures more than just those receiving benefits. For the 12 months through 3Q2011, the recipiency rate (the share of total unemployed receiving UI benefits) for Regular UI programs was 33%; the recipiency rate for all programs (including EUC08 and EB) was 47%. The insured unemployment rate for 3Q2011 was 1.9%.

The latest unemployment rate information for all states is for October New Hampshire had the fourth-lowest unemployment rate in the nation, 5.3% for October New Hampshire had the lowest unemployment rate in New England for October – NH – 5.3% –VT – 5.6% [5 th -lowest] –ME – 7.3% [17 th lowest] –MA – 7.3% [17 th lowest; tied with ME] –CT – 8.7% [30 th lowest] –RI – 10.4% [44 th lowest (7 th highest); tied with NC; ranking includes DC]

Seasonally adjusted unemployment levels are declining

The 2011 monthly unemployment rates should follow a smoother path when benchmarked The 2011 annual average unemployment rate will likely be 5.2%, compared to 6.1% in 2010 and 6.3% in 2009.

About 16% of New Hampshire workers work out-of-state –Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year estimates indicate that 84.3% of working New Hampshire residents worked in New Hampshire, while 15.7% worked out-of-state. This equates to about 1 in 6 working New Hampshire residents who work out-of-state. This share has been very stable at least back to –According to the 2000 U.S. Census, 84.4% of New Hampshire workers were working in-state, while 15.6% worked out-of-state. –According to the 1990 U.S. Census, 83.3% of New Hampshire workers were working in-state, while 16.7% worked out-of-state. About 6.5% of employed residents were multiple jobholders in 2010.

Comparing county-level average unemployment rates for the first ten months of 2011 with bordering states, three of the four lowest county unemployment rates are in New Hampshire, and nine of the lowest 16 county rates are in New Hampshire.

Total unemployment has dropped – with noticeable declines in the number of long-term unemployed

Prepared by New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, 32 South Main Street, Concord, New Hampshire 03301

How the different Measures of Labor Underutilization relate to one another

Short-term employment growth (2Q2011-2Q2013) is projected to be about 0.7% annually – more than the 0.5% annual rate for the previous set of short-term projections, but less than the last long-term projections

Summary of short-term projections: Note: These projections include estimates of the self-employed; also, State and local college and school employment are included in Educational Services; State and local medical facilities are included in Health Care.

For more information and data, please visit the ELMI Bureau website at: