NOAA / WSWC Workshop on Advancing Seasonal Prediction for Water Resources Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt NWS / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center October.

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Presentation transcript:

NOAA / WSWC Workshop on Advancing Seasonal Prediction for Water Resources Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt NWS / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center October 21-22, 2015 Salt Lake City, UT

CPC Seasonal Precipitation Outlooks Released third Thursday of the month Includes 13, 3-month overlapping seasons Maps show probabilities of the favored category out of a three class system (B,N,A) Based on leading climate modes such as ENSO Statistical and dynamical forecast guidance Additional value added products available based on forecast maps

Additional Seasonal Precipitation Information Anomaly (inches) of the median value of the outlook distribution Dashed lines are the median value Shading are anomalies Northern Florida Climate Division Probability of Exceedance Graph Illustrates the shift in the distribution

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook Skill Heidke Skill Score (ranges from -50  100) (top) Spatial map Sep-Oct-Nov  Mar-Apr-May (bottom) time series for western CONUS from , all seasons ENSO events generally responsible for best score periods

Forecast Tool Support-Historical Skill Canonical Correlation Analysis CFS Constructed Analogue

Correctly or incorrectly, less of an emphasis has been placed on developing or improving statistical methodologies in many years Strong emphasis has and will continue to be placed within NOAA for dynamical model evaluation and development (higher resolution, physics, MME, etc.). This should continue, but this takes time and is expensive. CPC needs to invest in updating statistical forecast tools: Evaluate the best predictors, regions and use the latest datasets. Unknown how much increase in forecast skill would be gained. Hybrid approaches need to be developed and accelerated into forecast operations, if deemed helpful. More sophisticated statistical post processing of more reliable dynamical model output (circulation) may bridge gap with eventual observed precipitation. Some thoughts