HS3 Review and Planning Meeting Scott Braun

Goals of Meeting Review 2012 campaign – Initial science results – Lessons learned Prepare for 2013 campaign – Status of all instruments – Changes to aircraft operations for 2013 – Revised strategies based upon lessons learned and changes from 2012 operations – Changes to MTS – Deployment details

GH Status and Changes Status (progress with pods, new instruments) 2013 and 2014 schedule Operational constraints (flight duration issues, turn-around time, hazard avoidance, other issues) Fatigue management Changes to the COA (if any)

Discussion on Wednesday Forecasting procedures Flight modules & planning Mission scientist’s roles and responsibilities PayMOF operations

Flight Modules AV-6 Module Example AV-1 Modules

Review of Science Goals Environment: What impact does the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have on intensity change? How do storms interact with shear produced by large-scale wind systems? In particular, how do horizontal and vertical variations in shear impact intensity change? How does the outflow layer interact with the environment? Inner-core: What is the role of deep convective towers (bursts) in intensity change? – Are they critical to intensification? – How does the low-level wind field respond to convective bursts? – How does the upper-level warm core depend on convective bursts? How do intrusions of dry air impact intensity change? What changes in storm structure occur prior to and during genesis and rapid intensification?

Two aircraft: AV-6 = environmental GH AV-1 = over-storm GH Deployments of GHs from the East Coast— Wallops Flight Facility in VA 5 week deployment in 2013 (Aug 20-Sept 23) Currently 4 weeks in flight hours per deployment (10-11 flights) Dots indicate genesis locations. Range rings assume 26-h flights. HS3 Mission Overview 16 h loiter 6 h loiter

Environmental Payload NOAA U. Wisc. NASA/GSFC Temperature Relative Humidity Aerosol Backscatter

Over-Storm Payload NASA/MSFCNASA/GSFC JPL HIRAD excess T B HIWRAP dBZ and vector winds HAMSR T´

Unable to add YES dropsonde system for HS3. Possible piggybacks – GPS surface wind sensors On AV-6 in 2013 – Gamma ray detector On AV-1 New Instruments for 2013 z P y h x Reflection AreaGPS S γ GPS surface winds

HS3 in 2012 Challenges – Only 1 storm while at WFF – Dropsondes almost disallowed by FAA – Numerous tech. & logistical challenges – No AV-1 Successes – 1 very persistent storm – Good interactions with FAA/VACAPES – Smooth WFF operations/chase coordination – Great work by forecasters, mission scientists, flight planners, ESPO, & crew Nadine’s track

AV-1 Prep for AV-1 did not make the 2012 deployment due to aircraft issues Test flight in Pacific on Nov. 5-6 In addition to HAMSR and HIWRAP, flying HIRAD for the first time OSCAT image from 00 UTC 6 November

HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow 7 Sep Z Black, Red, Blue and Pink lines: Global Hawk observed wind speed and temperature profiles along jet maximum from dropsondes Green line: COAMPS-TC model wind speed profile Red line: Satellite wind speed vertical average Solid black: Tropopause Dashed: Cirrus top / jet max Dotted:Cirrus cloud base Yellow shading:Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) domain Cloud top Cloud base Tropopause Courtesy of P. Black

Impact of HS3 Dropsondes for Nadine Track Error (nm)Intensity: Max. Wind Error (kts) Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa) Bias (dash) HS3 drops No drops HS3 drops No drops HS3 drops No drops Bias (dash) Dropsonde impact experiments performed for Sep. (3 flights) -Blue, with HS3 drops -Red, No drops with synthetics COAMPS-TC Intensity and Track skill are improved greatly through assimilation of HS3 Drops. Courtesy of J. Doyle

Best track, NODA, and EnKF-Initialized Forecasts (a) Track (b) Intensity HIWRAP radial velocity assimilation from Hurricane Karl Use same WRF-EnKF system as used at PSU (F. Zhang et al.) Use up to 450 superobs/h (150/h from analysis time and +/- 1 h) Reject any ob. with Vr < 15 m/s or dBZ < 25 Assimilate P/I at 18Z/16 th, then P/I + Vr 19Z through 07Z/17 th Best results from tight flight pattern