Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Managers’ Forum Bio: Nano: Info The Exponential Economy Ken Dozier Executive Director, WESRAC 3/26/2008

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Western Research Application Center learningcenter/ presentations.asp

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight” Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001 Velocity “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) TruthKnowledgeBelief Universal No Debate Phenomena Social Converge on debate Theory Personal Diverge on debate Guess Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985 What is Knowledge ? ObservationExplicitTacit

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Can You Find the Billionaires ?

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Developers Drivers Gates “Microsoft”Xerox Jobs “Apple” Xerox Clark “SGI” E&S, Stanford Clark “Netscape”University of Illinois The Non-Linear

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International Singapore 4.Iceland 5.Canada 6.Finland 7.Denmark 8.Switzerland 9.Australia 10.Luxembourg Global Competition 1. USA 2. Hong Kong

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Demassification Denationalization Despacialization Disintermediation Disaggregation Decentralization Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March D Dimensions of Global Commerce

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Where are the Brains? (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) An increasing attribute of our knowledge age Exponential Economy Copyright SRI International 2002

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999 Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Info-Tech Nano-Tech Bio-Tech Technologies Change Fast Source: SRI International 2002

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) “where... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 People Do Not (Anchor and Adjust) Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Can Our Brains Handle It? Judgmental Forecasts of Exponential Growth are Highly Conservative. People Tend to Think in Terms of Unit Differences Rather than Percentage Differences J. Scott Armstrong (1985)

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Growth How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be? How thick would it be after 100 folds? Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Amrstong 1985

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Growth The Answers 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.) 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun! Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Amrstong 1985

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) How Far Does A Penny Go 1988$ per Megabyte cent per Megabyte IBM Millipede (2008) 1 cent per Gigabyte Nantero/Zettacore (in 4 years) 1 cent per Terabyte Hewlett Packard (in 6 years) 1 cent per Petabyte Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) High Performance Computing (HPC) Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) PetaFLOPS computers—capable of performing a thousand trillion mathematical operations per second Will open new doors to understanding the functions of biological molecules. HPC and Next Generation Biology

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) HPC and Next Generation Biology Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries. Source: Communications of the ACM. Volume 47, Number 11 (2004), Pages 34-41

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Blue Ribbon Task Force on Nanotechnology A joint federal-state venture to promote California as the national center for research, development, and commercialization of the nanotechnology industry.

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) California Council on Science and Technology 2004

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Media Bandwidth DSL/ Cable IEEE 1394 / Firewire Gigabit Ethernet LASER / Fast Ethernet 10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave G2 Wireless G3 / Wireless LAN Async. Trans. Mode (ATM) G1 Wireless 10Gig Ethernet Voice Internet Access Gaming File sharing Digital Music NTSC Video VHS Video MPEG Video DV Video HDTV Video 10^11 10^10 10^9 10^8 10^7 10^6 10^5 10^4 Bandwidth Required Bits/sec (bps) 120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand 10^12

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The U.S. Has Lost It ? The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment. Now it has plunged to 19th place. While the United States is still first in absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China. Source: January 2006

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Bad New? The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband. Source: The Brookings Institute 2004

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Cities Are Getting It City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city. Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.” The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity.

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Is Connectivity Enough? Walmart Perspective If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis. It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables - CTO Walmart (September 2006) Source: HPC Wire, September 15 th, 2006

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) How Important is Computing? Pratt & Whitney Perspective Building models on the computer is faster and lower- cost, and you can look at any level of detail. Digital models are the basis for innovation. Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed development and reduce costs. We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers can use these tools. - Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney (September 2006) Source: HPC Wire, September 15 th, 2006

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Adapted from OSC Graphics Council and USC ISI Proprietary Competitiveness Transformation Challenge 20 Number of Users Number of Applications National Productivity Opportunity Entry Level HPC Users Experienced HPC “Heroes” Nodes 1,00010,000+ NICE: Moving Users Forward World Class Computing Government Laboratories & University HPC Centers Experienced Industry Users NICE: Filling the Expertise Gap Never Ever Users Mid-Range Users

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Dynamic Systems Common modes of complex in dynamic systems Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Jay W. Forrester MIT 1939 Servomechanism Laboratory –Feedback control mechanisms for military equipment 1945 created an aircraft flight simulator for the U.S. Navy –Design was based on the untested technology of the “digital computer” 1947 MIT Digital Computer Laboratory founded (Director Forrester) WHIRWIND (general purpose digital computer) –Used to test computerized Combat Information Systems –Created technology –Invented computer magnetic core memory 1950 MIT Lincoln Laboratory Division –Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) air defense system –99.8% uptime during 25 years of deployment Experience as Manager on these projects lead him to conclude –The biggest impediment to progress was management not technology –Social Systems are much harder to understand than physical systems

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Forrester: System Dynamics Forrester appreciated the difficulties faced by managers 1956 became professor at the newly-formed MIT School of Management Created Systems Dynamics –Under sponsorship of General Electric –3 year employment cycle –Problem was due to internal structure of the firm not to an external force such as the business cycle Moved to formal computer modeling of system dynamics

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Beer Game Steady state at 4 cases per week. Densmore O. 2005

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Connectivity J.W, Forrester, A. T. Kearney 2000

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Beer Game - Not Sharing The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case.

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Beer Game - Sharing Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system. Densmore

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Dozier/Chang Findings 2004 Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency. Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations. Grid computing can create a B2B trust environment that creates super supply chains.

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) High Performance Grid Computing

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Assessing Your Technology Industry Adoption of Technology Executive’s Approach to Technology CEO Not InvolvedCEO Involved Before Technology (Non-Customer Facing) After-Technology (Customer Facing) CIO Magazine June 2002

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