Household Budget Survey Results and Last Year GBS Review National Bureau of Statistics November 2008

2 Outline of presentation 2007 HBS Results Next Step for 2007 HBS Key achievement since last GBS Review National Panel Survey

3 Sample Designing Sample Frame was drawn from 2002 Population and Housing Census (EAs), with new HH listing undertaken Stratified households within EAs based on socio-economic information – low, middle and high income 10, 466 HH were analysed (97%) out of 10,752 HHs

4 Social Sector Indicators: - Demographic, Health and Education

5 Demographic Indicators The average number of household has declined from 4.9 persons per household in 2001 to 4.8 in (This implies that total fertility rate has also declined from 6.2 children per woman in 2002 to 5.8 in 2007 (THIM, 2007) Continued rise in female-headed households across strata since 1991 Small increase in proportion of total population and HH heads over 65

6 Female-headed households

7 Health The 2000/01 and 2007 surveys collected information on whether individuals had been ill or injured in the past four weeks, type of illness, type of health provider that had been consulted, if any, and satisfaction with the source of care. Similar proportions reporting illness in the last four weeks, and similar patterns by area (rural>other urban>Dar) between the two surveys (2002 and 2007)

8 Health 69 percent of individuals in household consult any provider four weeks before the survey. No change in proportions consulting any provider when sick or injured (69%), ( ) but: Over 65 percent of individuals consulted Government facilities compared with 55 % in This implies increase in consultation at government facilities over a period of six years ( ). Small increase in proportion satisfied with services in govt facilities, fewer reporting lack of drugs

9 Consultation with govt providers

10 Education Compared with 2000/01: Little change in overall adult literacy levels Large increase in enrolment rates, both primary and secondary Improvements in class attended for age of child (eg 30% (2007) of 9 year olds in school in St III, cf 13% (2001)

11 Net enrolment ratios - primary, lower secondary

12 Housing and household amenities Substantial improvements in use of ‘permanent’ housing materials - in all areas (Dar/OU/rural) 7 % of households with no toilet facilities Drinking water: apparent decline in piped water

13 House construction materials (%)

14 Drinking water supply (%) – Safe Water

15 Ownership of selected consumer assets DarOther UrbRuralMainland Tanzania 2000/ / / / Radio / r. cassette Telephone - any LandlineNA 2.8 NA 1.9 NA 0.6 NA 1.1 CellphoneNA 62.8 NA 42.5 NA 13.9 NA 24.5 Television Computer * Mosquito nets Motor vehicle Motor cycle Bicycle

16 Households’ main cooking energy

17 Electricity-

18 Household productive activities Main activity of adults: - decline in farming between 2001 and rise employment and self-employment

19 Household banking and finance Since 2000/01, modest increases in households with at least one member: - having a bank account, (but large drop 91-01) - taking a bank loan, - participating in informal (and formal) savings groups Overall levels still low and more concentrated in urban areas : This is a challenges that need to tackled by Financial Institutions

20 Household banking and saving (% HHs with at least one member with…)

21 Structure of Consumption Across all strata, mean food expenditure per capita is higher in Dar es Salaam compared to other areas In total, food expenditure per capita has increased from TShs. 6,137 in 2001 to TShs. 11,919 in In all categories, total expenditure per capita has increased from TShs. 9,972 in 2001 to TShs. 20,288

22 Expenditure per capitaDar es Salaam Other urban areasRural areasTotal Food purchased10,30118,6807,11412,6503,1185,9444,0858,145 Food not purchased ,7172,3754,6122,0513,775 Food total10,66819,2067,98914,3675,49210,5566,13711,919 Durables1,8922,6301,0992, ,149 Medical Education9742, , Other non-Durables7,00613,5674,2538,2172,1464,3682,7185,782 Telecommunications3042, Total pc21,18341,27914,13127,1008,45216,4189,97220,288 Not adjusted for prices Mean Expenditure per Capita by Category of Item (Nominal figures, 28 days, TZ Shillings)

23 Structure of Consumption Households in Dar es Salaam spend the lowest proportion on food (53 percent), while rural households have the highest food share (67 percent). The share of expenditure on food has declined modestly in all areas, particularly in Dar es Salaam and other urban areas,

24 Shares per capitaDar es SalaamOther urbanRuralTotal Food purchased pc Food not purchased pc Durables pc Other non-Durables pc Medical pc Education pc Telecommunications pc Of which, total food

25 Poverty Line Two poverty line are used to estimate poverty levels in Tanzania. Food Poverty line: The household food consumption pattern is examined from the information recorded from the households for one calendar month. This examination takes into account the type, quantity and price of each food item consumed in the household. After establishing both the type and quantities of each food item consumed in the household, the caloric value is then determined. The WHO recommends a minimum of 2,200 kilo-calories per adult per day

26 Poverty Line 2000/01 poverty line inflated using Fisher index 2000/ Food 5,29510,219 Basic Needs7,25313,998

27 Incidence of poverty - headcount YearDarUrbanRuralTotal Food Basic

28 Conclusion Substantial improvements in schooling, fewer individuals in the households did not satisfied with availability of drugs in the Government facilities. Many individuals consulted Government facilities when they were sick or injured. Shortage of water supplies and especially in Dar es Salaam and fewer number of households with no toilet facilities. Improvements in housing materials and increase in the ownership of many consumer goods The proportion of people living in poverty has decreased by 2.2 percentage points, ( )

HBS Next -Step Further analysis of 2007 HBS results will be required: National Team of Analysts from WB, UDSM, OPM, NBS and REPOA will be involved in this task Some issue such as rural-urban migration, limitation of headcount ratio for estimating poverty level, female headed households (increase in numbers) requires further analysis Methodological issues of computing incidence of poverty

30 HBS 2007, next steps HBS results will feed into:  Rebasing of GDP  Preparation of quarterly GDP  Updating of NCPI basket  Prepare 2007HBS Popular Version – Swahili These activities will start January Deliverables  Quarterly GDP expected April 2008  Updated CPI expected - June 2008  Rebased GDP expected – May 2008

31 Key achievements since last annual review 2006/07 Integrated Labor Force Survey completed and released 2007 HIV/AIDS survey completed and released 2007 Census of Business establishments finalized 2007 HBS analyzed and released and posted to NBS Website – National Panel Survey fielded TSMP strategy finalized

32 Key achievements since last annual review Tanzania Statistical Master Plan; Strategic plan is ready Vision is to have a well-integrated and efficient national statistical system that produce quality statistics for decision makers in an objective, timely and cost-effective manner. TSMP’s core activities include:  Legal and institutional reform; Revision of 2002 Statistical Act  Enhanced professionalism; capacity building and incentive reform  Adequate office space and transport equipment

33 Tanzania Statistical Master Plan (TSMP)  Enhanced service orientation; improved data access for general public  Improved economic statistics  Improved GIS; for census preparation and presentation of routine data  Coordinated National Statistical System, including strengthened routine data systems  Continue household survey program

34 Tanzania Statistical Master Plan Strategic plan submitted to cabinet  by December 2008 Implementation plan is being finalized  by December 2008 Funding from GoT and DPs  DPs requested to support through pooled fund.  Pool will be fully functional next Fiscal Year

35 National Panel Survey (NPS) NBS committed to delivering the NPS last Annual Review  Extensive survey covering consumption, poverty, shocks, agriculture, assets, health, education, nutrition, access to finance, employment & self-employment.  Modular approach allows to add and omit certain modules while maintaining comparability of the core

36 National Panel Survey (NPS) Panel survey was fielded in October  Real time data entry in the field ensures data will be available for analysis by September 2009, in time for annual review  Interim data available May 2009  If round 1 is successful, NPS data will be available annually around September  Revision of questionnaire starts May 2009 for round 2 Suggestions are welcome for new modules

37 Summary NBS will continue to support the results orientation of MKUKUTA with quality data Next year some updated and improved products will be released:  Quarterly GDP  Rebased National Accounts  Updated CPI Support NBS to realize its vision of a world class statistical institution in Africa by supporting TSMP implementation  Join statistics pool

38 END Thank you: USE OFFICIAL STATISTICS FOR EVIDENCE-PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT