SDGs and the importance of labour market data & research Lawrence Jeff Johnson Deputy Director, Research Department International Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva 28 to 29 October 2015 Tbilisi, Georgia

Outline Introduction Regional labour market trends Data gaps Global experience on jobs diagnostics, strategy and implementation Research Department, ILO - 2015

I. Introduction Building on the progress of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)Target 1B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex The share of working poor (US$1.25 a day) in total employment Labour productivity Vulnerable employment Global Employment Trends Model

Global - vulnerable employment and rate (%) Updated OK- 2012 figures from http://www.bles.dole.gov.ph/PUBLICATIONS/Current%20Labor%20Statistics/STATISTICAL%20TABLES/PDF/tab7.pdf Source: ILO - Trends Econometric Models, July 2015.

VULNERABLE EMPLOYMENT Without work Available for work Seeking work UNEMPLOYMENT is only the tip of the iceberg VULNERABLE EMPLOYMENT Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS 1 out of 5 are vulnerably employed

Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Decent work for all - at the heart of achieving the SDGs in the next 15 years Sustainable Development Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all The ILO’s mandate on providing decent work for all is at the heart of achieving the SDGs in the next 15 years. Out of the 17 proposed SDGs, the eighth goal is on “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all.” Role of the ILO goes beyond this goal and if we learned anything from the MDGs it is that policies if carefully constructed can be mutually reinforcing and have spill over effects and externalities Global Employment Trends Model

Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Although the ILO's primary focus and lead will be on Goal 8, its actions will also have an impact on other goals and targets: Productive employment and decent work is central to achieving many of the goals highlighted in the SDGs: ending poverty (Goal 1), achieving gender equality (Goal 5) & reducing inequality (Goal 10). In early 2016, member states will agree upon a set of global indicators to monitor the SDGs and targets. As highlighted by the co- facilitators of the Post 2015 Development Agenda, data, statistics and research will be vital in effectively assessing the progress made by countries in the coming 15 years. Timely and relevant research can play an important role in demonstrating the way forward with more and better jobs for development. As evidenced by the ILO’s involvement in setting up the SDGs, the Developing with Jobs Report in 2014 help build the narrative around “decent work for development”. The ILO’s recent and on-going research corroborates the importance of quality jobs for inclusive growth, poverty reduction, gender equity and greater equality. Global Employment Trends Model

II. Regional trends: growth performance Average GDP growth in Central Asia and Eastern Europe Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board. Research Department, ILO - 2015

Wage and salaried employment comprise close to 80 per cent of all employment in the region Source: World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO), May 2015. Research Department, ILO - 2015

Source: ILO Statistics 2015. Meanwhile, labour force participation rates are the lowest in Moldova (compared to the 6 countries in consideration) Labour force participations rates (%), selected countries   2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Armenia 59 58.5 59.2 61.6 62.1 62.6 63 63.3 Azerbaijan 64.2 64.8 64.5 65 65.6 66.1 66.6 Belarus 55.5 55.1 54.7 55.4 55.7 56 56.2 Georgia 63.4 63.5 63.8 64 64.3 64.7 65.4 Moldova 44.4 43.9 42 41 41.6 40 40.7 41.3 Ukraine 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.6 58.9 59.1 59.4 59.6 Note: * ILO estimates and projections Source: ILO Statistics 2015. Research Department, ILO - 2015

Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015. Vulnerable employment in Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS has been trending downwards Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015. Research Department, ILO - 2015

While the ILO’s forecast show that youth unemployment rate is expected to edge up in the coming years Youth unemployment rate in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS (%) The chart depicts the evolution of unemployment rates as well as projections. Projections are presented in the form of a fan chart, indicating the probability of various outcomes for the unemployment rates. Each shade of the fans corresponds to one-third of the confidence interval around the central projection. Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015. Research Department, ILO - 2015

Labour productivity growth has been among the highest in the 6 countries we are examining today Note: the bars refer to growth in labour productivity per person employed. Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board. Research Department, ILO - 2015

A moment of clarity… Slide 8 – AEC Challenges However, by 2025, of the 3.1 million jobs gains in the Philippines, around 38 per cent of these would be vulnerable jobs.

Virtuous Spiral Sustainable & Expanding Growth Poverty Alleviation Decent Work & Employment Growth Poverty Alleviation Increased Real Earnings & Social Benefits Technological Improvements Increased Demand, Increased Output Increased Demand & Well-Being Increased Technological Change Poverty Alleviation Productivity & Output Growth Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality Increased Investments & Demand Increased Productivity Increased Real Wages Increased Earnings

Source: ILO Research Department. Public sector’s share of employment has declined in the last few years across all six countries Source: ILO Research Department. Research Department, ILO - 2015

III. Data gaps Data availability – ILO Statistics Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research Highlights from the World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2015: Standard employment model has become less and less dominant (less than one in four jobs) Changing nature of work and rising incidence of non-standard employment and the challenge of rising income inequality. Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research (contd.) The need for labour market policies and institutions to adapt to take into account new forms of employment relationships. The importance of social protection -- providing coverage to non-standard forms of work through policy innovations. Furthermore, changing nature of work and rising incidence of non-standard employment has had economic and social repercussions, chief among which is rising income inequality. Goal 10 calls for “reduce inequality within and among countries” and this is going to be a challenge unless concerted efforts are put in place to fight inequality. WESO in May 2015 highlighted the importance of social protection in achieving this goal by providing coverage to non-standard forms of work through policy innovations. Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research (forthcoming) The World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2016 will look at: Progress since the MDGs and challenges that lie ahead to achieve the SDGs by 2030 The challenge of reducing extreme poverty ($1.25 per day) by 2030 and the role more and better jobs play WESO in January 2016 will look at the gaps in the world of work, paying close attention to the progress that has been made since the MDGs went into effect in 2000 and the challenges that lie ahead to achieve the SDGs by 2030. The May edition of the WESO in 2016 will then focus exclusively on poverty further shedding light on the impressive progress that has been made globally. WESO May 2016 will look at the challenge of reducing extreme poverty ($1.25 per day) by 2030, paying close attention to the role more and better jobs play in achieving this target. Research Department, ILO - 2015

Thank you!! For comments/suggestions, please contact me at: johnsonl@ilo.org Research Department, ILO - 2015