ECONOMIC MACRO FACTORS vs ADULTS’ LEARNING MOTIVATIONS Center for the Advancement of Women Foundation Innovations in Adult Learning IMAL Grundtvig Learning Partnerships, 4th Partners Meeting Zaragoza, October 2014

Learning Motivations: Macro Factors - POLAND

POLISH MACRO FACTORS Socio-economic context – Poland (1)  The post-WW II history of Poland splits in two phases: communist regime (since 1945) and III-rd Republic (since 1989). The WW II itself had a tremendous impact as well:  Population: Poland lost 11 million (35%) of the population of 35 million: 6,03 million killed (17,3% - the highest % of all countries), other 5 million either emigrated or had their citizenship changed due to borders changes as Poland lost 1/3 of it’s former territory  Economy: centrally planned economy led to total bancrupcy of the system, resulting in free eletions on the 4th of June 1989 & the victory of the SOLIDARITY; this happened behind the iron curtain, before the Berlin Wall fall, with Russian troops still in the country....  Education & Science – to large extent disconnected from world developments and trends due to the political & budgetary constraints; strict limits on the number of students resulting in 1989 with only 7% of the population with tertiary education, preferential treatment of the working class offspring and restrcitions for these of intelligentsia.  So called People’s Democratic System – a distorted concept  The institutional/legal systems – window dressing;dominating Communist Party rule  Therefore the overall statistics for Poland without breaking into age groups & analysis of particular circumstances dim and distort the picture

POLISH MACRO FACTORS Socio-economic context – Poland (2)  Since joining the EU in 2004 Polish GDP grew from 39% EU average to 68% in 2013; with purchasing power of 74%  GDP size-wise it is today the 8th economy in the UE  Budget surplus of 37% has been obtained for the Ist Quarter of 2014 and the government debt is 49,5% compared to 88% EU-28 average  Poland has not suffered from the crisis of 2008 to the extent experienced by all other EU countries, remaining „a green island” till today

„green island” 2009

The % of population with tertiary education in the age group 30-34; Poland and EU 27 in the period (Eurostat,March 2013)

Figures and facts BUT: when we take a look from a different angle we see the magic of statistics. The so far achieved progress cannot continue at the same speed if some macro-factors do not change. 1.Polish economy is based on imported technologies.Little is invested in R&D by companies and the state, including in education 2.The size of the economy takes the impressive 8th place, but productivity is low, circa 60% of the EU average. 3.Education is not properly integrated with market needs and industry requirements 4.Low productivity equals low GDP per capita. With low productivity wages MUST be low. 5.Low productivity combined with high unemployment & low economic activity additionally affect the GDP per capita figure. 6.Open labour markets in EU instigate emigration.

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector, 2007 and 2012

Population, education & living conditons Poland scores close the EU-28 average:  Age groups 15> & <65 respectively 15% & 14,2% as compared to EU-28: 15,6% & 18,2%  Education attainment 3-6 levels: M 83,2 & F 84,6%; in younger age group F much higher than M  Early leavers : M 7,9% & F 3,2%, one of the lowest  Birth rate : 1,30 - 1,58; Poland scores THE LOWEST  Life expectancy : M 72,7 & F 83,2 ( EU-28: 77,5 & 83,1)

Economic activity  In this aspect Poland with it’s figure of 60% has some work to do to reach the EU average of 64,1% ; (some tables show for Poland 64,8%! due to the methodological differences, for example age brackets or 20-64).  Interestingly enough the female economic activity indicator is only 0,7% lower from UE average for women. It has increased in the last 6 years by nearly 10%.

Economic activity

Employment rates  Poland has managed to lower the unemployment rate to 9,9% ; this figure shows that shortages of workforce on the labour market are likely to surface in foreseable future  Roughly half of the unemployed are long-term  The unemployment rate among young people (15- 24) for June 2014 is 23,1%, and dropped from 29,20% in March 2013.

GDP per capita and salary level The figures in the next slide explain the correlation between opportunities for the young and the emigration phenomenen that among EU-28 has affected stronger only Romania (2,4 million people)

GDP per capita & salary level

EMIGRATON  Since 2004 over 2 million, mainly young  Nearly 10% of the Polish occupationally active population, with families Results:  Accelerated population aging  Loss for the state budget  Growing deficit of the national social security system (pensions)  Lack of workforce in certain industries; not obvious for the economy at large due to still high unemployment rate IN EFFECT : Slowing down economic growth

Emigration: motivations Stability of work Easier start and career development Higher wages Easier living & working conditions (services, social systems/welfare states, bureacracy, legislation, courts etc.)

The most pressing challenges for Poland GENERAL GOAL to assure economic growth and good living/ working conditions for the pulation at large SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES To increase investment in R&D To enhance coopertaion between busienss & educational institutions To increase the % of people economically active To increase the % of years old population with tertiary education To reduce emigration levels and instigate returns To increase trust in various institutions

POLAND MACRO FACTORS Europe 2020 and national targets vs current situation Europe 2020 headline targets Current situation in Poland (2012) National 2020 target in the NRP 3% of EU's GDP to be invested in research and development 1.26% (2010)1.7% 75% of the population aged should be employed 64,8% (2012)71% Reducing early school leaving to less than 10% 5,4% (2012)4,5% At least 40% of year old completing tertiary or equivalent education 35.3% (2011)45% Reducing the number of people in or at risk of poverty or exclusion by at least 20 million 10,4 million people (2010) 1,5 million people lifted out of poverty

Trust on Institution Do you in general trust the following institutions or not? (2012) Trust on Institution Do you in general trust the following institutions or not? (2012) Institution YESNOHard to say Institution YESNOHard to say The Grand Orchestra of Christmas Charity 8974 Historical Memorial Institute Polish Red Cross Courts Caritas Civil servants The Army TV Scouts The Government Roman Catholic Church Large companies The Police Newspapers The Ombudsman (woman! Irena Lipowicz) Churches, other denominations Local goverments Labour Unions EU Upper & Lower Chambers of the Parliament NATO Political parties The UN

Economic macro factors vs adults’ learning motivations, poland Thank you for your attention. Anna Jancewicz