Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD Centre for Demography Improving internal migration estimates of students.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Constructing population time series with an ethnic breakdown for sub-national areas in England and Wales, Albert Sabater PhD student at CCSR.
Advertisements

Improved Methods for Population and Migration Estimates ONS Centre for Demography May 2007.
Studying internal migrations with census microdata.
No.1 for Service and Value Mid Year Estimate Response Wandsworth Borough Council Overview of Wandsworth 286,600 residents Over 40% are between Many.
Lincolnshire Research Observatory Measuring Lincolnshire’s Population Measuring Lincolnshire’s Population – An introduction to.
Improving Migration and Population Statistics: Mid-Year Estimates Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography.
Administrative Data Sources ONS Centre for Demography.
Population Estimates Jonathan Swan, ONS Mid-year population estimates The ONS mid-year population estimates: ●At national level for England, Wales ●At.
A model-based approach for estimating international emigration for local authorities Brian Foley, Office for National Statistics BSPS day meeting London.
Internal Migration Research Update Kostas Loukas, Population Statistics Research Unit
Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography.
Household Projections for Northern Ireland 9 th September 2009 Dr David Marshall & Dr Jos IJpelaar Demography & Methodology Branch Northern Ireland Statistics.
Update on the Demography of London LSE Lent Seminar Series th March 2013 Ms Baljit Bains.
SPAIN 1 Exchange of Information between Member States to improve population Statistics. A Proposal from INE-Spain Antonio ARGÜESO Socio-Demographic Statistics.
Changes to Internal Migration methodology for English Subnational Population Projections Robert Fry & Lucy Abrahams.
Beyond 2011 – A new paradigm for population statistics? Pete Benton, Beyond 2011 Programme Director Office for National Statistics, UK.
Populations ethnicity and geography Helen Cooke (SWPHO) adapted by John Langley for the East Midlands 2008 PHI course.
Improving the estimation of long-term international emigration at local authority level Joshua Turner Population Statistics Research Unit (PSRU) Local.
Understanding Population Trends and Processes WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL.
Beyond 2011 The Future of Population Statistics Martin Ralphs, Office for National Statistics.
Development of international migration statistics in Russia on the basis of census and administrative data Svetlana Nikitina Director of the Department.
Improving Migration and Population Statistics Improvements to Population Statistics Richard Pereira Head of Migration Research Centre for Demography.
Migration Statistics Improvement Programme – Overview of Phase 2 ONS Centre for Demography.
DEMOGRAPHY1 Demography Studies reproduction of human populations.
National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review Emma Wright & Giles.
2011 CENSUS Coverage Assessment – What’s new? OWEN ABBOTT.
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys Bangkok,
1 Measuring Quality Issues Associated with Internal Migration Estimates Joanne Clements, Amir Islam, Ruth Fulton & Jane Naylor Demographics Methods Centre.
Register-based migration statistics and using additional administrative data sources Barica Razpotnik Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia UNECE.
General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Demographic Statistics 2005 Cecilia Macintyre General Register Office for.
1 Measuring Uncertainty in Population Estimates at Local Authority Level Ruth Fulton, Bex Newell, Dorothee Schneider.
Plausibility Ranges for Population Estimates Focusing on ranges for children.
General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people BSPS Review of migration methods using health registrations Nick.
Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of Britain D.A. Coleman and M.D. Smith Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford.
Sub-regional Workshop on Census Data Evaluation, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, November 2011 Evaluation of Census Data using Consecutive Censuses United.
An Improved Method for Estimating Immigration to Local Authorities in England and Wales Nigel Swier British Society of Population Studies (BSPS) Conference.
Regional workshop on migration statistics, October 2011, Antalya, Turkey Pablo Lattes Migration Section, Population Division - DESA United Nations,
Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001? Nicola Tromans, Eva Natamba and Julie Jefferies Office for National Statistics.
Demographic Analysis Update This presentation is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion. Any views expressed.
General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Comparison between NHSCR and Community health index sources of migration.
In-depth Analysis of Census Data on Migration Country Course on Analysis and Dissemination of Population and Housing Census Data with Gender Concern
1 Understanding and Measuring Uncertainty Associated with the Mid-Year Population Estimates Joanne Clements Ruth Fulton Alison Whitworth.
UNSD/STATISTICS KOREA International Seminar on Population and Housing Censuses: Beyond the 2010 Round Seoul, November 2012 Beyond 2011: The future.
Panel discussion: Q2a A.S. Young ILO Bureau of Statistics.
Measures of immigrant stocks in the UK Emma Wright Office for National Statistics, UK.
Trends in International Migration in Suffolk These slides were prepared for UCS Workshop 8 th November 2013 by Belinda Godbold & Mary Moore from Business.
Assessing the accuracy of different models for combining aggregate level administrative data Dilek Yildiz Supervisors: Peter W. F. Smith, Peter G.M. van.
Comparison and integration among different sources for determining the legal foreign population stock in Italy Costanza Giovannelli Joint.
Modelling international migration to produce local level estimates Ruth Fulton Office for National Statistics.
The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman Cathie Marsh Centre for Census & Survey Research (CCSR), University of Manchester ESRC.
2011 Census Data Quality Assurance Strategy: Plans and developments for the 2009 Rehearsal and 2011 Census Paula Guy BSPS 10 th September 2009.
2014-based National Population Projections Paul Vickers Office for National Statistics 2 December 2015.
Update on Short-term Migration Research Jonathan Smith & Amanda Sharfman.
The 2011 Census: Estimating the Population Alexa Courtney.
JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010 A QUALITY ASSURANCE STRATEGY FOR THE 2011 CENSUS IN ENGLAND AND.
MAIN CHALLENGES TO IMPLEMENTING THE MIGRATION SECTION OF THE CES RECOMMENDATIONS IN THE COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Marina Manke Technical.
UN ECE Seminar on New Frontiers for Statistical Data Collection 31 Oct – 2 Nov 2012 Beyond 2011 The future of population statistics Andy Teague, Office.
Washington January 2008, Expert Group Meeting on Household Surveys and Remittances Measuring Personal Transfers: The Contribution of Household Budget.
JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT WORK SESSION ON MIGRATION STATISTICS GENEVA, OCTOBETR 2012 COLLECTING MIGRATION DATA IN THE UK CENSUS IAN WHITE, Office for.
DATA SOURCES FOR MEASURING FORCED DISPLACEMENT WITH A FOCUS ON ADMINISTRATIVE SOURCES Khassoum DIALLO Snr Statistician UNHCR Regional workshop on strengthening.
GOVERNMENT OFFICE FOR THE SOUTH WEST South West Public Health Observatory Day 2: Datasets Jennie Mussard, Croydon PCT James Hebblethwaite, Kensington &
Overview of External Migration Statistics in Georgia Workshop on the use of administrative data for measuring migration in Georgia April 5-6, 2016, Tbilisi,
Jo Watson sepho South East Public Health Observatory Solutions for Public Health Day 2: Session 2 Populations and geography.
South West Public Health Observatory Populations, ethnicity and geography.
1 A investigation of ethnic variations in mortality using the ONS Longitudinal Study Chris White Health Variations Team Office for National Statistics.
Beyond 2011 Voluntary Sector Statistics User Event Minda Phillips Amelia Ash.
Improving Migration and Population Statistics Improvements to Population Statistics Richard Pereira Head of Migration Research Centre for Demography.
Building on the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme
Population Statistics without a Census or Register
Presentation transcript:

Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD Centre for Demography Improving internal migration estimates of students

Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Major cross government programme Package of improvements to migration statistics introduced in 2007 Next set of changes to be introduced in May 2010 Revised population estimates mid-2002 to mid-2008 Consultation on improvements begins November 2009

Summary Context Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Indicative results Uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

Context

Context: HE student numbers 2007/ million HE students 0.65 million 1 st year undergraduates within England & Wales Represents 1% of the total England & Wales population

Current population estimates method

Estimated resident population at time T Natural Change – add births, subtract deaths International migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Internal migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Add special populations back in Estimated resident population at time T+1 Remove special populations – UK armed forces, foreign armed forces, prisoners, school boarders Age-on population by 1 year

Accuracy of student migration estimates

Why the focus on student migration? Some young people, particularly young men, do not change their GP registration soon after they move Students a sub-set of young people, who necessarily cluster in certain areas of the country Affects estimation of students moving to university and moving away after their studies

Comparison of stocks

Former students moving out of example area

Comparison of Census and mid-2007 estimates

Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

Identifying migration moves using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data Independent record of moves to university Domicile address Term-time address (from 2007/08) Age and sex Wide range of other variables Course length Level of study Start date / leave date Nationality

Access to Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data Identifiable record level data Establishing legal gateway Process complete by end 2009 Anonymised data Received March 2009 Used as the basis for improved internal migration estimates (May 2010)

Proposed student migration adjustments Estimates of students going to university Estimates of former students leaving university Creating a back series for the above for estimates for 2002 – 2007 Creating a counter-adjustment to account for when moves are eventually made

Estimates of students going to university

Estimates of former students leaving university HESA data does not record where former students move to How many people: a)Finish studying b)Move to a different LA c)And don’t change registration with a GP d)Remove former students from the LAs they were previously resident in and allocate them to the LAs they move to

Estimates of former students leaving university Range of sources used for the adjustment HESA 2001 Census Patient register of moves Necessary to assume that patterns have remained consistent since 2001

Indicative results

2007/08 indicative results for England and Wales TotalMalesFemales Proposed ‘start of study’ adjustment 66,30036,00030,300 Proposed ‘end of study’ adjustment 35,31724,37910,938

Indicative results: Ten largest increases

Indicative results: Ten largest decreases

Indicative results: Adjustment for former students to first destinations

Indicative results: Ceredigion mid 2007 population

Additional uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

Further research using HESA data Internal Migration Record linkage between patient registers and HESA data to identify and adjust for moves missed International Migration Foreign students who don’t live in households and so are not sampled in the Labour Force Survey Record linkage between international migrants identified on patient registers and HESA data Identification of foreign students likely to be short-term migrants

Likely short-term migrants on HESA data (2007/08) Local AuthorityOverseas Short-term Migrant Students Camden5,200 Manchester4,000 Cardiff3,900 Islington3,900 Newham3,800 Newcastle-upon-Tyne3,800 Coventry3,200 Birmingham2,900 Tower Hamlets2,800 Leeds2,800

Summary Accuracy of internal migration estimates of students Availability of HESA data on student’s term- time address Proposed adjustment for moves at beginning and end of study Implemented into revised population estimates (mid-2002 to mid-2008) Wider research planned using HESA data

Questions?