NextGen and the Weather Information Database March 23, 2009 Jason Tuell Chief, Science Plans Branch Office of Science and Technology March 23, 2009 Jason Tuell Chief, Science Plans Branch Office of Science and Technology

Overview NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? The roadmap ahead Broader benefits to NOAA Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube Summary NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? The roadmap ahead Broader benefits to NOAA Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube Summary

NextGen 101

Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information "A key finding, based on an analysis of several convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information "A key finding, based on an analysis of several convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

NextGen 101 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

NextGen 101 NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities) NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

NextGen 101; Key Themes An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

NextGen 101; Key Themes A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

NextGen Weather Basics Today NextGen (new requirements) Not integrated into aviation decision support systems (DSS) Accuracy meets today’s requirements Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making purposes) Disseminated in minutes Updated by schedule Fixed product formats (graphic or text) Totally integrated into DSS Better accuracy High temporal resolution Disseminated in seconds Updated by events Flexible formats

What is the WIDB? The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Winds and Temperature The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters. The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Winds and Temperature The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

What is the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source? The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy Sticky issues: FAA SAS definition differs internally Who will own the SAS? Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS? The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy Sticky issues: FAA SAS definition differs internally Who will own the SAS? Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?

The WIDB: A Conceptual Model WIDB Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Integration into User Decisions Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations Numerical Modeling Systems Numerical Modeling Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecasting Automated Forecast Systems Automated Forecast Systems Forecast Integration 4D Wx SAS Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings

Why NOAA? “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

14 Why NOAA? NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

The Roadmap Ahead Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube Consistency Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast Model Enhancements and Improvements “System of Systems” Decision Support Services Consistency Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast Model Enhancements and Improvements “System of Systems” Decision Support Services

The “Consistency” Issue The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness” The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness”

Convective Modeling Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final” Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

Model Enhancements and Improvements Production Timelines - (Estimate…not a final product!) Terminal Non-Terminal (TBO) Global Convective Other Wx Refresh Rate LatencyRefreshLatencyRefreshLatencyRefreshLatency 0-2 hrs 5 min 7.5 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min 2-4 hrs 7.5 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min 4-10 hrs 30 min 60 min30 min60 min30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min hrs Every 3 hrs 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 120 min hrs Every 6 hrs 60 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 120 min 60hrs-14 days Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time ClimatologyMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne Day

Summary NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

Summary There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube