The dynamics of Britain’s ethnic group populations: the roles of natural change and net migration in producing the ethnic mosaic Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson BSPS Annual Conference St. Andrews, th September

Political and academic context Social and political concern Assumptions about ‘white flight’ and non-white ‘self-segregation’ Renewed academic interest in ethnic geographies and their measurement (e.g. Peach 1996, Simpson 2005, 2007, Voas and Williamson 2000, Poulsen et al 2005) Some work on migration and dispersal (e.g. Ellis & Goodwin-White 2006, Frey 2006, Musterd & de Vos 2007, Stillwell 2005, Simpson 2007)

Migration, Race and Population Dynamics Net migration and natural change District and Ward scales 8 ethnic groups, age and sex Change over time ( ) Population change = (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)

National population dynamics Growth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other populations in GB is more through natural growth than immigration, net migration natural change Source: MRPD estimates

Age structure of net migration, GB, Net migration as % of 1991 pop Chinese and African immigration Caribbean emigration Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi emigration

Counterurbanisation Source: Census 2001 SMS, for districts in GB

Dispersal Balance of migration, % of population Group concentrationsGroupWhite Indian Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other South Asian Chinese Black Source: Census 2001, for districts in GB

White & Indian net migration, 91-01

Net migration V natural change, White and Bangladeshi

Migration and natural change: demographic hypotheses Growth in geographical clusters Pioneer and chain immigration: settlement areas Few deaths compared to births: natural growth becomes greater than immigration Dispersal Lack of housing creates pressure to disperse from settlement areas Migration gives spatial form to social stratification, economically more successful move further to achieve better housing Internal migration maintains clusters of ethnically similar population

Correlations between net migration and natural change White-0.10 Caribbean-0.45 Indian-0.02 African0.89 Pakistani0.83 Bangladeshi0.88 Chinese0.68 Other0.57 Districts of GB,

Local examples Natural growth and dispersal for Indian, Bangladeshi, Chinese Population loss due to migration for White and Caribbean Growth due to natural change and migration for Pakistani, African and Other Net MigrationNatural Change …and in Oldham for Bangladeshi

Natural growth and dispersal for all non- White groups except Pakistani Net MigrationNatural Change Population growth due to migration and natural change for all non-White groups except Bangladeshi

Summary Components of changes estimate are a rich source Nationally, natural growth has a greater impact than migration for Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other groups There is great variation not only between groups but between areas Patterns can be explained by the demographic maturity of migrant groups and their geographical distribution Local examples illustrate complexities of processes of population change but provide initial evidence for processes of natural growth and dispersal from urban and settlement areas, and the creation of new clusters in more remote areas

Conclusions Geographies of ethnicity in Britain, including clustering of non-white groups, can be explained through a combination of natural change and dispersal We must not jump to conclusions about divisive motivations for migration