Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 20, 2010 Jeff Fletcher

Logistics Service experiences –Recyclemania and/or Garden Preparation Attending outside events for Extra Credit –MLK Service Day—how did it go? –See EcoWiki events calendar –Food Inc. Showing - 1/31, 8pm, Ondine Lobby –Howard RheingoldHoward Rheingold 1 on 1 meetings; who did I miss? Reminder: Read Kolbert Chapters 5, 6, 7 –(p ) Mentor Session Today –Peer Review of Carbon Footprint –Early term evaluations Put up Sustainability Autobiography “maps” BE SURE TO VOTE!!

Key Ideas About Systems What makes a system? –Elements and Relations –order vs. disorder –system vs. environment Systems States and Dynamics –Equilibria, Stability Positive and Negative Feedbacks –Non-linear dynamics Chaos Theory, Catastrophe Theory –Emergence –Structure Open vs. Closed Matter, Energy, Information

Systems can be in different states For instance, temperature or composition of atmospheric system How systems change states over time is called dynamics Equilibria –Stable vs. UnstableStable vs. Unstable –Static vs. Dynamic –Positive and Negative Feedbacks (aphids)aphids Exponential growth example of + feedback Homeostasis example of - feedback

Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence

Examples from Atmosphere Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere? –What proportion is CO2?What proportion is CO2 Caution in reading graphs What is ppm in percent? –nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere! Methane also has disproportionate effectsMethane Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility (video)video –Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070! –Example of not reversible, directionality

Water Vapor in Atmosphere Also a small proportion of atmosphere Effect is being debated:being debated –What would be example of positive feedback with water vapor and global warming? –What would be example of negative feedback?

Earth Relatively Closed System to Matter We don’t get any more atoms here on earth –We keep reusing the Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Carbon atoms we have –Nature’s RecyclingNature’s Recycling –Structure of these systems varies N critical to proteins in living organisms and abundant in atmosphere, but mostly unavailable –Depends on symbiotic relationship in plants with bacteria that “fix” nitrogen O part of H20, C02, Carbohydrates (systems interconnected) –Bodies burn carbohydrates -- Cn(H20)n –(e.g. glucose C6H12O6 + 6O2 6CO2 + 6H20 + Energy) –Plants can do this backwards with sun for E! –Similar to burning hydrocarbons (only C + H, i.e. methane=natural gas) CH = CO2 + 2H20 + energy C lots of it, but relatively little of it is cycling in atmosphere –Most of the carbon is stored in geologic deposits - carbonate rocks, petroleum, and coal - formed from the burial and compaction of dead organic matter on sea bottoms. The carbon in these deposits is normally released by rock weathering. –Extraction and burning of fossil fuels alters this system

Atmosphere is Relatively Flat Systems (not much hierarchy) Air molecules are very small compared to space between them Can treat them as all the same (Ideal Gas Assumption) –A Linear relationship holds (roughly) for earth’s atmospheric temperatures and pressures –PV = nRT –Caesar’s Last BreathLast Breath

Energy and Heat Earth is an open system to EnergyEnergy –ability to do work Potential, Kinetic, Heat Energy –Heat: Radiation electromagnetic waves (even through vacuum) Sunlight, microwaves, infrared –Heat: Conduction molecular vibrations in solids spreads to neighbors –Heat: Convection Molecules move in gases and liquids—collide and spread their kinetic energy

Entropy Second Law of Thermodynamics: –entropy (disorder) increases (or at best stays the same) when cycles of work are done (for closed systems)entropy Order necessary to maintain system’s integrity –comes from energy flow into system (not closed), e.g. sunlight on earth –Overall Entropy is increasing in the Universe, but there are “back eddies” of order driven by energy input (e.g. life on earth)

Matter, Energy, Information Matter can be seen as acted upon by energy But understanding matter and energy relationship is not enough Information can organize matter and energy –Acorn Example

More Socially Relevant Systems Ideas –Optimization Local vs. global Cannot optimize system and its subsystems at the same time –Tension between systems and subsystems Examples –You and your liver –Efficient country and local autonomy/control –Game Theory Tragedy of the Commons Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken Discounting Future Maximin, Nash Equilibrium, Pareto Optimality

Summary Another way to think about systems: –Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics Characteristics worth thinking about include: –Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence, discontinuous change) –Structure of relationships Open vs closed (matter, energy, entrpy) Degree of hierarchy Hierarchy of Matter, energy, information

Field notes Chapter 3 (Glaciers) Swiss Camp, Greenland –Konrad Steffen research groupresearch group –Above artic circleAbove artic circle –Speaker Pelosi VisitSpeaker Pelosi Visit Acceleration of Greenland Ice –13 inches a day in 1996; 20 inches a day 2001 –A Positive FeedbackPositive Feedback “acceleration of Greenland ice sheet suggests yet another feedback mechanism: once an ice sheet begins to melt, it starts to flow faster, which means it also thins out faster, encouraging further melt” p. 54 “Particularly alarming, Corell said, were the most recent data from Greenland, which showed the ice sheet melting much faster ‘than we thought possible even a decade ago.’” p. 63

Chapter 3 (continued) Freshwater ice from snow fall, on land –Unlike melting sea ice, changes sea level –Greenland Ice = 23 ft rise in sea level –Sea level timelineSea level timeline Pacific NW Glaciers –Research at PSUResearch at PSU –Some comparisons (slide 11, 16, 21)Some comparisons What models have been introduced in readings? –What animal models: what computer/mathematical models

Possible Models Group Assignments –Thermohaline Circulation –Significance of Comma Butterflies –Golden Toads –Mosquitoes (Wyeomyia smithii)

Groups Activity Before you leave today: –arrange a time to meet with your group in the evening or on the weekend (before next Monday) in Broadway –make sure you have contact info for your fellow group members Meet briefly (~15 – 30 minutes) with your group and discuss the following points about your assigned model organism or computer model: –What is the main point illustrated by this model? (e.g. this is an expansion of what was on the quiz) –What are the details of your model system that illustrate this main point? –How is this main point connected to Global Warming? –Is it a good model for illustrating the main point? Can you think of a better one? EVERY member of each group should take their own handwritten notes and be prepare to present for two minutes in a future group on this topic.

Bad Apples Homework 2 This American Life Episode #370 – x?sched=1275http://thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.asp x?sched=1275 –Take notes on: the main types of behaviors identified what support/examples are provided any ideas that come to mind related to your own experience any thing else you think is relevant