Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin James Kendell Energy Information Administration Outlook for Gasoline.

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Presentation transcript:

Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin James Kendell Energy Information Administration Outlook for Gasoline and Fuel Ethanol Through 2025

Average Prices of Gasoline and Ethanol at the Plant Gate (2002 dollars per gallon) Conventional RFG CARB Ethanol

Miles Traveled and Miles Per Gallon for Light-Duty Vehicles (percent growth year-by-year) Miles Miles Per Gallon

U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, (million barrels per day) Transportation Industrial Residential and commercial Electricity generation History Projections

Consumption of Petroleum Products, (million barrels per day)

Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Fuel, (million metric tons)

U.S. Petroleum Consumption and Production, (million barrels per day) History Projections Consumption Production Reference High price Reference Low price

Never used RFG with MTBE Used RFG with MTBE States That Ban MTBE

U.S. Oxygenate Consumption, (million gallons) HistoryProjections RFS Schedule Ethanol for Gasoline Blending Ethanol for E85 MTBE

Sales of Advanced Technology Light-duty Vehicles by Fuel Type, 2010 and 2025 (thousand vehicles sold)

The Chemistry of Ethanol Production Corn GlucoseEthanol Amylase Enzyme Yeast Cellulose 5- and 6- carbon sugars Cellulase Enzyme or Strong Acid Ethanol Genetically Modified Yeast or Bacteria

Corn and Cellulose Ethanol Production, (million gallons per year) Corn Cellulose

Economic Hurdles to Cellulose Ethanol Commercialization Iogen estimates that a commercial plant using its technology would cost $4.80 per annual gallon of capacity to build. (Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2004) A dry-grind corn ethanol plant can be built for about $1 per annual gallon of capacity. Banks are reluctant to back petroleum refinery projects that cost more than $1 per annual gallon of capacity. Cellulose ethanol producers may eventually face competition from electric generators for supplies of crop residues and other cellulosic materials.