Possible adaptation decisions from investigating the impacts of future climate change on food and water supply in China Lin Erda, Xu Yinlong, Ju Hui and Xiong Wei Agro-environment and Sustainable Development Institute, CAAS Zhang Silong Water Information Centre, MOR

Global Warming and Its Impact IPCC third assessment report identify an average increase in global temperature of 0.4~0.8 ℃ in past century Over the same period in China preliminary results show this temperature increase to be between 0.7~0.8 ℃, the impacts of climate change in China were different and severe.

Global Warming and Its Impact

China/UK Cooperation Project The capacity of the Hadley Centre model to simulate the present climate in China has been validated with observed data. This has been used to develop climate change scenarios for China.

What is PRECIS? PRECIS — Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level

A demo for RCM downscaling HadAM3H PRECIS A demo for RCM downscaling

PRECIS has a strong ability to simulate daily precipitation

Climate Change Scenarios based on · A2 – globally inhomogeneous economic development, with a continuous increase in the world ’ s population and a medium-high rise in greenhouse gas emissions. · B2 – regional sustainable development, with a slower (but continuous) increase in the world ’ s population and a medium – low rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E Simulated annual increase (  C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990

75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E Simulated annual increase (  C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990

Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)

Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)

A2 (medium – high emissions)B2 (medium – low emissions) Time period Temperatur e increase (  C) Rainfall increas e (%) CO 2 (ppmv *) Temperatur e increase (  C) Rainfall increas e (%) CO 2 (ppm v*) 2011~ ~ ~ Climate Scenarios by PRECIS for China

Climate scenario trends in China by PRECIS yearsIncreased T (  C) Increased PTrends % % %dryer %dryer %dryer %dryer %dryer

Progress A regional crop model is being developed for the whole of China. This has been linked to the climate model to predict changes in yield of Wheat, Rice, Corn and Cotton.

Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files, Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.) Regional Crop Model CERES Soil polygon file Crop variety polygon file Socioeconomic polygon file PRECIS Biomass output Water output Growth output Input files Output files

2080 Rice Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

Current Wheat Area

2080 Wheat Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

Current Maize Area

2080 Maize Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

2050 Cotton Yield Change under A2 Scenario 2050 Cotton Yield Change under B2 Scenario

SOC changing in 2050 under A2 scenario SOC changing in 2050 under B2 scenario

SOC changing in 2080 under A2 scenario SOC changing in 2080 under B2 scenario

Uncertainties of CO 2 fertilization and Water availability Change in average yield (%)* With CO 2 fertiliser effectWithout CO 2 fertiliser effect 2020s2050s2080s2020s2050s2080s A2: rainfed – 36.4 A2: irrigated – 14.4 B2: rainfed – 26.9 B2: irrigated – 3.8 Projected changes in average maize yield compared with yield under baseline (1961–1990)

Possible Adaptation for Agriculture develop and promote use of CO 2 fertilizing varieties Promote irrigation and water-saving technologies Adopt heat-resistant crops, water- efficient cultivars with resistance to pests and diseases adjust crop planting distribution based on getting warmer climate in Northeast China in next 20~30 years recover vegetation of grassland to avoid further desertification ； feeding animal with grass productivity

Study on the Effect of CO 2 Fertilization on wheat production Interaction of 450, 550 and 650ppm CO 2 and 1-3 ℃ warming represents positive or adverse effects on these crops Using a CO 2 Gradient Chamber to simulate the influence of the different raised CO 2 concentration with the warming climate. Long term treatments of high lever of CO 2 concentration are taking on wheat rice and maize generations

2050 Soil moisture deficit under A2 scenario

Effect of climate change on Yellow River Recent 40 years, the observed runoff from the 6 largest rivers in China showed a decrease trend. The Huayuankou station of Yellow Reviver, with a decrease rate of 5.70 ％ per decade. Total runoff of the Yellow River catchment would decrease by 0.43 ％ per decade 。

Runoff Deepness changes of 2071 ～ 2090 comparing with the baseline under B2 Scenarios Results from VIC （ variable leakage capacity ） Model suggest the average runoff deepness in Ningxia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Shanxi of of the Yellow River catchment may decrease 2 ％～ 10 ％。

Provin ce 2050 Water Supply(100M m 3 )2050 Water Demands(100M m 3 ) Groun d Under groun d trans fer othersTotal Pro d Live Ec o Total Different Shanxi Inner M Henan Shaanx i Gansu Qingha i Ningxia Water Demand and Supply of Selected Provinces

Assess carrying capacity of water resources Actively adopt water saving technologies to establish a water-saving community Improve the water price system, apply used water and treated sea water South-to North water diversion Possible Adaptation for Water Use

Conclusion Future climate change is almost unavoidable, adaptation should be most important Adaptation can hoist the danger lever due to suspend adverse impacts Incremental costs of adaptation could create a serious burden for developing countries Adaptation need international cooperation