Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) WSAQS 2011b Base Case Updates University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) April 29, 2015

2 2011a CAMx Platform 36 km CONUS; 12 km WESTUS; 4 km 3SAQS 2011 NEIv1 emissions 2011 WSAQS O&G MOVES2010b Prelim PMDETAIL Fires – 2011 WF, Rx and Ag MEGAN/WRAP Biogenics BCs from MOZART 2011 WRF 36/12/4 km – Standard Configuration

3 2011b Updates 2011 NEI v2 Updated 2011 WSAQS O&G 2011 O&G for Williston/Great Plains Basins SMOKE-MOVES2014 for on-road mobile Updated 2011 fire emissions New WRF simulations for Winter Meteorology – Address winter ozone events New BCs based on sensitivity tests – Evaluate MOZART, GEOS-Chem and AM3 Wiki: – b-modeling-platformhttp://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/2077/3saqs- 2011b-modeling-platform

4 2011b – 2011 NEI Version 2 CEM Points – Add IDs, missing points, hourly CEM data Non-CEM Points – Move some to CEM; add missing ethanol facilities Commercial Marine – Update to newer year data Non-Road Mobile – Replace annual with monthly EI; Add Texas 2011 data On-Road Mobile (not used) – EFs from MOVESTier3FRM

5 2011b – 2011 O&G Emissions WSAQS update 2011 O&G emissions for D-J, Piceance, NSJ, SSJ, and Uinta Basins: – EPA Tribal MNSR program data mined for information – Addition of fracing engine emissions Wyoming O&G from WDEQ New O&G emissions for Williston and Great Plains Basins – From BLM Montana/Dakotas Study by WRAP Remainder 2011 O&G from 2011 NEI v2

6 2011b – SMOKE-MOVES2014 Use EPA MOVES2014/CB6 Emissions Factor Lookup Table w/ SMOKE-MOVES2014 – State-specific data if provided to EPA – /12/4 km WRF data – MOVES2014/CB6 not yet available Release with other updates as MOVES2014a in “summer” Preliminary results on wiki: – es2014-sensitivity-modeling-results es2014-sensitivity-modeling-results

2011b – Updated PMDETAIL Fires 2011a WRAP FETS fire emissions tool as used in JFSP DEASCO3/WestJumpAQMS 2008 modeling For 2011b use updated emission factors (EFs) and VOC/PM speciation updated (Akagi 2011; May 2014) – Increases in VOC emissions – Addition of HONO In addition, new fire emissions to support use of the Volatility Basis Set (VBS) SOA module – VBS to be used in JFSP PMDETAIL – Not WSAQS at this time

8 2011b – WRF Winter Simulation 2011a 36/12/4 km WRF simulation followed configuration used in WestJumpAQMS with version updates Model evaluation was generally good – RF_MPE_v8_draft_Aug04_2014.pdf RF_MPE_v8_draft_Aug04_2014.pdf – One exception was winter ozone cold pool event WSAQS conducted revised winter 2011 WRF modeling 8

9 2011b – Updated 36 CONUS BCs Evaluating 3 GCMs for BCs – MOZART, GEOS-Chem and AM3 – With and without using TOPCON BC Some have overstated dust (FCRS & CCRS) – May have to cap dust BC concentrations Results from BC sensitivity tests will decide final BC for 2011b – By end of May or early June

b 36/12/4 km CAMx Base Case Expect to be performed ~ July 2015 – Include full MPE products Abbreviated report with online products 2020_2011b simulation Distribution on Data Warehouse