POPULATION DYNAMICS Zoo 511 Ecology of Fishes 2009

Today’s goals  Understand why and how population dynamics are important in fisheries ecology  Gain experience in a variety of mark-recapture methods

“A population is a group of fish of the same species that are alive in a defined area at a given time” (Wootton 1990) Population dynamics: changes in the number of individuals in a population or the vital rates of a population over time What are population dynamics?

Major role of ecology: understand change

Myers et al. 2007

Why study population dynamics?  Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation  Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)  Fisheries management (sustainable yield)  Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes

Why study population dynamics?  Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation  Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)  Fisheries management (sustainable yield)  Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes PVA: Modeling the probability that a population will go extinct or drop below the minimum viable population size within a given number of years. Atlantic salmon PVA From Legault 2004

Why study population dynamics?  Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation  Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)  Fisheries management (sustainable yield)  Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes from Hilborn and Walters 1992

Why study population dynamics?  Often most relevant response to ecosystem manipulation/perturbation  Endangered species (population viability analysis, PVA)  Fisheries management (sustainable yield)  Understand ecosystem dynamics and ecological processes When do ecological shifts occur? Are they stable?

N t+1 = N t + B – D + I – E  B = births  D = deaths  I = immigration  E = emigration How do populations change? Deaths Population Births Emigration Immigration Stocking Angling

Density Dependence Population Density Rate of Change (per capita)

Rate of population increase Density independent Density dependent per capita annual increase N

Small group exercise Time Population density Time Population density Density-dependentDensity-independent Population starts at low density. What happens to density over time under density-dependent rate of increase? What happens if rate of increase is density- independent? Population starts at low density. What happens to density over time under density-dependent rate of increase? What happens if rate of increase is density- independent?

Logistic population growth K= carrying capacity r 0 = maximum rate of increase dN/dt=r 0 N(1-N/K ) per capita annual increase N K r0r0

R-selected vs. K-selected r-selectedK-selected Environmentvariable and/or unpredictable constant and/or predictable Lifespanshortlong Growth ratefastslow Fecundityhighlow Natural mortalityhighlow Population dynamicsunstablestable

N t+1 = N t + B – D + I – E  B = births  D = deaths  I = immigration  E = emigration How do populations change? Deaths Population Births Emigration Immigration Stocking Angling

Survival  Predation  Disease  Prey availability  Competition for food  Harvest “Natural Mortality” Age 1Age 2Age 3 Year 1N 1,1 N 1,2 N 1,3 Year 2N 2,1 N 2,2 N 2,3 Year 3N 3,1 N 3,2 N 3,3 S

Survival  Eggs and larvae suffer the largest losses HATCH Recruit! 2 cohorts each produce 10,000,000 eggs 90.5% survivorship/day yields 24,787 survivors at 60 days 95.1% survivorship/day yields 497,871 survivors at 60 days

Recruitment  Can mean many things!  Number of young-of-year (YOY) fish entering population in a year  Number of fish achieving age/size at which they are vulnerable to fishing gear  Somewhat arbitrary, varies among populations  Major goal of fish population dynamics: understanding the relationship between stock size and recruitment

What determines recruitment? -Stock size (number and size of females)

What determines recruitment? spawning stock biomass (SSB) Ricker Beverton-Holt Density-independent From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.

What determines recruitment? spawning stock biomass (SSB) Ricker Beverton-Holt Density-independent From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.

What determines recruitment? spawning stock biomass (SSB) Ricker Beverton-Holt Density-independent From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.

The problem?  Stochasticity = variable recruitment!

From: Cushing (1996). Towards a science of recruitment in fish populations

Highly variable recruitment results in naturally very variable catches From: Jennings, Kaiser and Reynolds (2001). Marine Fisheries Ecology

Population Abundance  On rare occasions, abundance can be measured directly  Small enclosed systems  Migration

Catch per unit effort (CPUE)  Very coarse and very common index of abundance Effort= 4 nets for 12 hours each= 48 net hours Catch= 4 fish CPUE=4/48=0.083 Effort= 4 nets for 12 hours each= 48 net hours Catch=8 fish CPUE=8/48=0.167 We conclude population 2 is 2X larger than population 1 1 2

Population abundance  Density estimates (#/area)  Eggs estimated with quadrats  Pelagic larvae sampled with modified plankton nets  Juvenile and adult fish with nets, traps, hook and line, or electrofishing  Density is then used as index of abundance, or multiplied by habitat area to get abundance estimate

Depletion methods * * * * N Time (or pass) Closed population Vulnerability constant for each pass Collection efficiency constant Often not simple linear regression

Mark recapture M=5 C=4 R=2 N=population size=????

Modified Petersen method  Assumptions:  Closed population  Equal catchability in first sample  Marking does NOT influence catchability Marked and unmarked fish mix randomly Mortality rates are equal  Marks are not lost

How to avoid violation of assumptions?  Two sampling gears  Distribute marked individuals widely; allow time for mixing  Can be separated into different groups  Length  Sex  Geographic regions

How many to mark/recapture?  Requires some knowledge of population size!  Trade-off between precision and sample size  Population of 10,000: Mark 400 and examine 600 for +/- 50% OR mark 1,000 and examine 1,500 for +/- 10%  Trade-off between marked and recapture sample size  Population of 10,000: Mark 1,000 and examine1,500 OR Mark 4,500 and examine 500

Schnabel method  Closed population  Equal catchabilty in first sample  Marking does NOT influence catchability  Multiple recaptures  Easier to pick up on violation of assumptions

Jolly Seber method  Open populations  Allows estimation of births and deaths  Three or more sampling periods needed  Equal catchability of all individuals in all samples  Equal probability of survival  Marks are not lost  Sampling time is negligible compared to intervals between samples

Importance of variability  Confidence intervals  Long-term frequency, not probablity!  95% confidence intervals  if you repeated procedure an infinite number of times, 95% of the time the interval you create would contain the “true” value  Precision vs. accuracy x x x x x x x x x xx xx x x x x x Accurate, not preciseNot accurate, preciseAccurate, precise

Lets count some beans!