Brian Wernham “Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance” Presented at APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014 Delegates’ 50%

Why are YOU here today? What is ‘Agile’? ‘Agile’ only for web development? ‘Agile’ only for tiny stuff? ‘Agile’ = loss of control? What is ‘DSDM’? ‘Agile’ in mission critical projects? 2 What is ‘Scrum’? Are we talking Governance of a project of Governance of portfolios of change?

This talk: 1.What is ‘Agile’? 2.What is Agile Governance? 3.Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected? - Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity 4.Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance 3

1. What is Agile? 4

The “Big Design Up Front” mind-set I had better ask for all possible features… At last – a chance to get what I want! 5

The Big Design Up Front is born… 6

The result of Big Design Up Front… 7

D’oh! 8

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As difficult as trying to swim up a waterfall… 10

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Scrum at the team level – two popular methods…  Scrum  DSDM 13

1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach Source: Mike Cohn

15 Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More) An overview of two agile methods 2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach

2. What is Agile Governance? 16

a)Time Driven “I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday” 17 Traditional Agile Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm…

b)… and minimises Work in Progress “There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse” 18 Design Build Test Deploy ? Agile focuses on flow…

Can we define Agile Governance principles at several levels:  Project Level?  Governance of one specific project?  Scrum? DSDM?  Programme Level?  Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:  Waterfall projects  & Agile projects?  Portfolio Level?  Governance across many projects? 19

Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about being adaptable? 20 Design Build Test Deploy Control-freak Governance

3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected? 21  A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory  Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)  How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)  Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)  Complex outcomes from simple systems  Self-organisation  Ants  People (so very different?)

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) For want of a nail the shoe was lost For want of a shoe the horse was lost For want of a horse the battle was lost… 22

Heat convection – any difference in initial conditions produces an unpredicatble outcome after a while: 23

Increase the feedback and the Lorenz equation becomes unstable and ‘chaotic’: 24

Complexity out of simplicity e.g. the Lorenz Equation 25

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) For want of a nail the shoe was lost For want of a shoe the horse was lost For want of a horse the battle was lost… 26

“No two snowflakes are the same” A simple fractal - The Koch Curve 27

“No two snowflakes are the same” A simple fractal - The Koch Curve 28

How long is a piece of string? (Fractals) 29 Ruler length = x Answer = y Ruler length x/2 Answer = y*2.5

The result runs away from you the closer you try to measure it… 30

The ‘fractal dimension’ measures this disappearing event horizon 31

How long will it take to add “just a bit more detail” to a business case or spec? 32

Alternative stable states 33 “Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems” Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

Self-organisation - Ants 34

Self-organisation - Ants 35

Self-organisation - People 36

References  Daňa, Josef  “Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno 2014  Christopher, Martin  “The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp  Yang, C  “Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University  Scheffer, Marten  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature,

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance 38

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