Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013. Reasons to Predict & Goal Movies are a large part of today’s culture Movies are expensive to make Goal: To predict a movie.

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Presentation transcript:

Alex Larson ECE 539 Fall 2013

Reasons to Predict & Goal Movies are a large part of today’s culture Movies are expensive to make Goal: To predict a movie potential box office success based on its characteristics

Data Collection Movie statistics available online on various websites Random samples of top movies from recent years Sample data from the-numbers.com

Features and Classes Release Month Distributor Genre MPAA Rating (G, PG, etc…) Is Sequel? (Y/N) 3 Classes based on Gross in release Year Gross < $49,000,000 $49,000,000 < Gross < $91,000,000 $91,000,00 < Gross

Results So far Initial results: poor low classification rate Reevaluated data Removed various outliers Limit to top Distributors/Studios Simplified genre classification

Results So Far KNN Classifier Testing Data Average C Rate(%) Confusion Matrix Maximum Likelihood Classifier Testing Data Average C Rate(%) Confusion Matrix Confusion Matrix MLP back propagation Testing Data Average C Rate(%)

Results So far Correctly Predicted for 2013: Iron Man 3 Hunger Games Oblivion Incorrectly Predicted for 2013: Gravity After Earth The Internship

Possible Improvements Refine features more, add more features like budge, director, lead actors Try with different combination of features