Decision Making Week 6

Decision-Making Would you rather work alone or in a team? Do groups make better decisions?

Problems in Decision-Making Bounded rationality – Tendency to filter and simplify the problem, to make decisions easier – Tendency to “satisfice” or choose the first acceptable alternative Escalation of commitment – Decision-makers feel more sure about a certain option the more they pursue it (even if it’s a bad choice).

Problems in Decision-Making Selective Perception – When new information is processed according to the receiver’s existing needs, motivations, experience, background (see what you want to see) Intellective vs. Judgmental Tasks – Intellective task: A clear solution exists and can be demonstrated to other people – Judgmental Tasks: A solution may exist but it is difficult to explain or demonstrate to others

Problems in Decision-Making Confirmation Bias -A tendency to seek out information that confirms what you already believe to be true Hindsight Bias -“I knew it all along”: tendency to see past events as predictable Halo Effect -Tendency for people to assume that one positive (or negative) trait means that others exist

Problems in Decision-Making Projection Bias – Tendency to assume that others share the same beliefs, preferences, thoughts, values, etc. False consensus effect – Tendency to overestimate the degree to which others agree with you Primacy (or Recency) effect – Tendency to weigh initial (or most recent) effects more heavily than others.

Problems with Group Decision-Making Groupthink – To avoid: – Promote open enquiry – Use subgroups – Admit shortcomings – Hold second-chance meetings 7

Hiring Exercise Read your instructions and information by yourself Make your own decisions, by yourself, first I will assign a “devil’s advocate” to the group Wait until I give the go-ahead to start your discussions

Debrief What was the group decision? Was it unanimous? How long did it take? How sure are you of your decision?

Problems in Decision-Making Group Processes: – Devil’s advocate: did it work? Social identity theory: cohesive “in-groups” – “Last chance”: did it work? Escalation of commitment / sunk costs – Prior preparation, voting, other group processes What is helpful? Not helpful?

Detecting Deception Write down 10 questions that you can ask about your partner’s Interview Subject. Find a partner. Ask each other your 10 questions. Answer all questions either honestly or lie. – Asking? Keep track of whether you believe that the answer is true or a lie. – Answering? Keep track of which questions you lied about.

Detecting Deception How well did you do at detecting the deception? What helped you to figure out the lies?

Detecting Deception Common “tells” (but not always: don’t rely on these) – Hesitation – Voice changes in pitch – Mistakes in speech – Response length (answers are shorter for liars) – Blinking (liars blink more) – Touching face Red Herrings (don’t rely on these) – Gaze – Face twitches – Speaking quickly – Shifting position / fidgeting

Detecting Deception Write down 5 questions that have open-ended answers Use this structure: – Ask a very general question about the topic (e.g., tell me about…) – Use some follow-up questions (i.e., probe for inconsistencies) – Confront the other person about any issues Write down which answers you think are lies Keep track of what you lied about

Detecting Deception How did it feel to be accused of lying when you were telling the truth? How can you ensure that people believe what you say?

Individual differences in judging deception: Accuracy and Bias What were the primary conclusions of the article? What findings did you find particularly compelling? What did you disagree with? What else could the authors have focused on? What is your overall assessment of the article?