Athens, February, 2008 ECOOP-WP7 Synergy between coastal forecasting and newly available data and methodologies (a step towards next generation forecasting systems) E. V. Stanev and WP7 Partners First Annual Meeting

 Enhance the exploitation of newly available near real time data in order to improve the quality of coastal ocean forecasting.  Provide a design for the next generation observing systems, including hardware, software, quality assurance and sampling strategies.  Enhance the cooperation between scientific communities working in the near coastal ocean and the community of operational oceanographers in down scaling their models to coastal scales. Objectives of WP7

Objectives of WP7 (continued)  Improve forecasting capabilities of pre- operational sediment transport models.  Improve quality of forecasting at European level by means of super-ensemble forecasting.  Contribute to advancing system development and baseline systems beyond the state-of-the-art and distribute new products via EDMS and EuroMISS.

WP7 T7.1 The observing systems S7.1.1 System analysis S7.1.2 System design S7.1.3 Comparisons of regional experiences T7.2 Near coastal models S7.2.1 Unstructured grids Jens Schrötter S7.2.2 Assimilation of data S7.2.3 Applications T7.3 Sedimentary regimes modelling S7.3.1 Data: Inventory of needs and availability S7.3.2 Sedimentary modelling S7.3.3 Matter transport and budget in the coastal zone T7.4 Super-ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modelling S7.4.1 Planning/Design S7.4.2 System development S7.4.3 Visualization and analysis tools and link with EuroMISS S7.4.4 Validation and error assesment S7.4.5 Dissemination activitiesActivities Deliverables: 8 deliverables T0-T18 month 10 Deliverables T19-T36 Month

T7.1: The observing systems duration: 01/02/ /01/2010 responsability: Manzella Giuseppe(ENEA) participants: ENEA, DMI, IFREMER, CNR-ISAC S7.1.1: System analysis, 01/02/ /07/2008, Manzella Giuseppe(ENEA) participants: ENEA, IFREMER, CNR-ISAC –D Review of the existing sampling methodologies in the European regional seas, Manzella Giuseppe, (ENEA) 31/07/2007 –D Definition of new operational methodologies for multiparametric measurements, Manzella Giuseppe (ENEA) 31/01/2008 –D Design of long term monitoring system: technologyManzella Giuseppe (ENEA) 31/07/2008 S7.1.2: System design duration: 01/01/ /07/2009, Legrand Jacques(IFREMER), participants: ENEA, DMI, IFREMER, CNR-ISAC –D : Design of a long term monitoring system: sampling ; 31/07/2009; Legrand Jacques(IFREMER) S7.1.3: Comparisons of regional experiences duration: 01/01/200931/01/2010 responsability: Manzella Giuseppe(ENEA), participants: ENEA, DMI, IFREMER, CNR-ISAC –No activities during the first 18 months –Deliverable D : Assessment of new technologies, 31/01/2010, Manzella Giuseppe(ENEA) More Information: Talk, G. Malzella

A first step has been a review of most used technologies and some new developments, underlining the importance of new applications Partners are trying to define concepts for the sampling strategies. They are able to now to create an artificial oversampling starting from observations. This oversampling should allow to define the right scales. Technologies analysed (with suggestion for implementation) XBTCTDUndulating Systems Gliders AUVROVProfilersDrifters MooringsADCPLIDARRadar T7.1

Particular application: SEPTR an underwater platform, trawl-safe shape structure ( T7.1 Vertical profiling (CTD and ADCP) also in the risky coastal environment.

...4 pages T7.1

T7.2: Near coastal models duration: 01/02/ /01/2010 responsability: Stanev Emil(USOF) participants: BBH, ICBM, NERC, IOW, ULG, AWI, CSIC, USOF, TUD S7.2.1: Unstructured grids, 01/02/ /01/2010, Schroeter Jens(AWI) participants: NERC, AWI, TUD –D : Setups of three models (TUDELFT, POL, AWI) for the specified areas. 31/07/2008, Schroeter Jens(AWI) –D : A full system including its code, description and usage examples, 31/01/2010, Schroeter Jens(AWI) S7.2.2: Assimilation of newly-available data, 01/02/ /01/2010, Staneva Joanna (ICBM) participants: BBH, ICBM, NERC, ULG, AWI, USOF –D : Data-assimilation schemes based on SEIK and SEEK filters, 31/07/2008 Schroeter Jens(AWI) –D : Validated forecasting system in targeted areas, 31/01/2010, Staneva Joanna(ICBM) S7.2.3: Applications, 01/02/ /01/2010, Burchard Hans(IOW) participants: ICBM, IOW, CSIC, USOF, TUD –D : Validated estimates for the selected coastal systems made available to public through EURODES, 31/01/2010, Burchard Hans(IOW)

S7.2.1: Coupling external and coastal circulation models via a coupler providing a solution for the elevation and vertically integrated velocity on a mesh containing some vicinity of coupling zone of both external and coastal models. Coupling via solving for the external mode External model mesh (POL) Coastal mesh (TUDelft)

Work during the first 6 months of ECOOP: 1. Setting up an unstructured grid shallow water model (triangular meshes). 2. Setting two versions of time stepping (explicit and semi-implicit). Semi-implicit version requires using solver at every time step to invert the stiffness matrix of the elevation sub-problem. This is costly in terms of CPU time but allows for larger time steps and adds stability. 3. Testing the performance of both version in tidal simulations for the North Sea. S7.2.1

Milestones (M1) First version of the data-assimilation schemes based on existing OI, SEIK and EnKF algorithms (M2) Downscaling in the near-coastal ocean (M3) Wadden Sea and Burgas Bay set-up developed (M4) Validation of forecasts based on extensive use of new data in the German Bight and WaddenSea. S7.2.2

S7.2.3: Talk by K. Bolding S7.2.3: Turbulent Dissipation in the Rhine ROFI Forced by Tidal Flow and Wind Stress Fisher et al ROFI = Region Of Freshwater Influence measurements of the cycle of TKED at mooring B (52°18''N, 4°18''E) ( to 05-21)‏ FLY IV microstructure profiler

Work Plan for S7.2.3 of ECOOP, Hans Burchard, March 26-27, 2007 Application areas Rhine/Meuse outflowTUD - IOW Wadden SeaICBM - IOW (Sylt-Rømø & East Frisian Islands) Elbe estuaryIOW – ICBM- (BSH) Danube plumeUSOF - IOW South coast of MallorcaIMEDEA-CSIC S7.2.3

T7.3: Sediment dynamics and modelling duration: 01/02/ /01/2010 responsability: Sanchez-Arcilla Agustin(UPC) participants: HCMR, IASA-UAT, UPC, ICBM, NERC, IOW, PML, BSH, UNIBO-CIRSA, USOF, TUD S7.3.1: Data: Inventory of needs and availability, 01/02/ /07/2008, Winterwerp Han(TUD) participants: UPC, ICBM, BSH, USOF, TUD –D : Report on the value of signals in the newly-available data for operational purposes, 31/07/2008, Winterwerp Han(TUD) S7.3.2: Sedimentary modelling, 01/02/ /07/2009, Sanchez-Arcilla Agustin(UPC) participants: HCMR, IASA-UAT, UPC, ICBM, NERC, IOW, PML, BSH, UNIBO-CIRSA, USOF, TUD –D : ECOOP prototype sediment transport modelling framework, 31/07/2008, Sanchez-Arcilla Agustin(UPC) S7.3.3: Matter transport and budget in the coastal zone, 01/01/ /01/2010, Stanev Emil(USOF) participants: UPC, ICBM, NERC, BSH, USOF, TUD –D : Sediment budgets in targeted areas, 31/01/2010, Stanev Emil(USOF) Talks by: Espino and Krestenitis

Results T7.3 H: Winterwerp: Work plan for S7.3.1 of ECOOP Case studies: Wadden Sea and the Catalan Sea. Issues: 1. System understanding 2. Problem definition 3. Study set up 4. Calibration and validation 5. Field data 6. Model analysis and interpretation 7. Data-model integration 31/07/2008 D : Report on the value of signals in the newly-available data for operational purposes

T7.3 The structure of works includes: (1)Harmonization of parametrisations and validation against available observations (2) Link between suspended matter and marine ecosystems Sánchez-Arcilla 60 pages first draft rport 31/07/2008, D : ECOOP prototype sediment transport modelling framework.

T7.4: Super-ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modelling duration: 01/02/ /01/2010, responsability: Alvarez Fanjul Enrique(PdE) participants: DMI, MET-NO, CNRS-POC, PdE, NOVELTIS, RIKZ, METEOGALICIA, MF S7.4.1: Planning/Design, 01/02/ /07/2007, Paradis Denis(MF) participants: DMI, MET-NO, CNRS-POC, PdE, RIKZ, METEOGALICIA, MF –D : implementation plan, 31/07/2007, Paradis Denis(MF) S7.4.2: System development, 01/07/ /10/2009, Alvarez Fanjul Enrique(PdE) participants: DMI, MET-NO, CNRS-POC, PdE, RIKZ, METEOGALICIA, MF –D : ENSURF modeling component, 31/01/2009, Alvarez Fanjul Enrique(PdE) S7.4.3: Visualization and analysis tools and link with EuroMISS, 01/07/ /10/2009, She Jun(DMI) participants: DMI, PdE, RIKZ, MF –D : ENSURF visualization and data analysis component, 31/01/2009, She Jun(DMI) S7.4.4: Validation and error assessment, 01/07/ /10/2009, Estournel Claude(CNRS-POC) participants: DMI, CNRS-POC, PdE, NOVELTIS, RIKZ, MF –D : Error sources assessment, 31/10/2009, Estournel Claude(CNRS-POC) S7.4.5: Dissemination activities, 01/08/ /01/2010, Hackett Bruce(MET-NO) participants: MET-NO, PdE, RIKZ, MF –D : ECOOP multi-model ensemble forecast system documentation, 31/01/2010, Hackett Bruce(MET- NO)

T7.4 Talk byEnrique Alvarez

D : implementation plan, 31/07/2007, Paradis Denis(MF) T7.4 will develop the multi-model Ensembles SUrge Forecast system (ENSURF) with the aim of operating the main components during the TOP period. Emphasis will be put on the: (1)set up of an operational multi-model system for the Southern Europe, (2) Improvement of the already existing system in Northern Europe and (3) development of a system combining multi-model and ensembles techniques. Such a task Important task now: (1)select the locations of the storm surge forecasts among available tide gauges, (2) establish data fluxes (real time measurements and forecasts) between partners, (3) run daily ENSURF during the TOP period, (4) adapt a visualization tool and to disseminate results and documentation.

Meeting of 7.4 partners: planed in Madrid for mid October (tentative 15th and 16th )

T7.4 Super-ensemble forecasting in storm surge shelf modeling PdE, CNRS-POC, DMI, MET-NO, METEOGALICIA, MF,RIKZ Session discussion 27 March, 2007 WP7 Kickoff meting: Paris, IFREER, March 2007

T7.4 Meeting Participants Oyvind Saetra (Met-No) Denis Paradis (MeteoFrance) Carlos Balseiro (MeteoGalicia) Begoña Pérez (PdE) Enrique Alvarez (PdE) Martin Verlaan, Pieter Haaring (RIKZ)

Conclusion No deviations from working plans are repotred.