I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency SPACE WEATHER TECHNOLOGY BRANCH Maj Timothy Nobis Chief, Space Weather Tech AFWA/DNXS 3 Mar 04

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Mission  Pursues and Leverages Latest Space Weather Technology  Assists in identifying AFW space weather shortfalls  Assists in guiding AF Space Weather Research  Integrates New Scientific Techniques into Analysis and Modeling efforts  Provides technical oversight to contract programs

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 Space Weather Technology Branch Maj Timothy Nobis Deputy Branch Chief Capt Leonard Berman UCAR Visiting Scientist Ms. Shauna Kinkela DNXS – Space Weather Technology Branch Term Hire Dr. Fred Eriksen Vacant SSgt IMA Vacant MSgt On Loan to DNXT

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Partnerships  Issues are too big for any one agency  DNXS is stepping out to partner with as many agencies as possible to leverage capability  CCMC  AFRL  SEC/NOAA  SMC  NASA/MFSC  UPOS  BEI  NRL  USGS  NGDC  CISM  Universities  AFIT Also  Private Sector

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 Project Areas  Data Collection and Acquisition  Space Weather Models  Data Fusion  Algorithms  Visualization  Verification / Metrics

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 Project Areas Data Collection and Acquisition

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 Data Collection and Acquisition  DNXS provides technical input to data collection and exploitation as required by the program manager  Instrumental in the acquisition of magnetometer data for Dst calculation  Took the lead in obtaining interim real-time Dst data feed  Conducted a study to determine the potential usefulness of NASA research satellites in ops  Battle Lab initiative to obtain data from TIMED / STEREO  Conducted a technical study of ionosonde data types to assist with visualization efforts  Heavily engaged in technical aspects of DMSP / NPOESS / GOES sensor products  Providing technical oversight to the Ionospheric Effects Characterization and SEON way ahead efforts

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 Project Areas Space Weather Models

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Space Weather Models  Current state is largely one of conditional climatology driven by global indices  Current AFWA modeling capability is set to increase dramatically in the next year  Starting the transition away from climatology towards assimilative, physics based modeling  Leveraging terrestrial insight to speed growth  DNXS is starting to play a critical role in the model tech transition process

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 Ionosphere – Current Capabilities  Large Scale: PRISM  Specification only  Climo adjusted from limited real- time data and conditioned by a global index  Scintillation Scale: WBMOD  Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index  Auroral Oval:  Hardy oval specification only

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 Ionosphere – Future Capabilities  Large Scale: Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model: IOC Sep 06  Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL manages the program  Provides 24 hour forecast  Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for FY08  Scintillation Scale  WBMOD upgrade planned near term  DNXS actively seeking to leverage a data driven model  Auroral Oval:  UPOS OVATION model FY06 will provide improved specification and 24 hr forecast capability

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 Magnetosphere  Current Capability: Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM)  Near Term Developments:  UPOS Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model FY06  UPOS Relativistic Electron Prediction (REP) model Dec 05  Longer Term:  Data Assimilative Magnetospheric model (DNXS pursuing options)  South Atlantic Anomaly specification and prediction (SMC led effort)

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 Solar Wind / Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IFM)  Current Capability: Limited access to the HAF Model  Near Term Developments: Working to integrate the Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model IOC Jan 06  UPOS effort from University Alaska- Fairbanks  DNXS worked extensively with code developers  DNXS working an initiative (with AFIT personnel) to upgrade the solar source data

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 Solar Surface  Efforts to specify and predict the solar surface are hampered  Lack of fundamental understanding  Lack of observations at necessary scales  Massive spatial scale impedes modeling efforts  Working with SEON way ahead  DNXS is looking at current efforts for possible modeling candidates  Solutions will likely be compartmentalized

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Thermosphere  AFWA currently lacks specification and prediction capability  AFSPC currently runs High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM)  DNXS is exploring candidates for integration

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 16 Coupling Efforts  Ultimate goal is a unified modeling system from Sun to Earth  Effort is young, maturity is a ways off  DNXS is monitoring efforts of university groups involved in coupled systems  Especially looking at the CISM group  DNXS is also part of the Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) initiative which is sponsoring an effort to couple GAIM and HAF

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 17 Project Areas Data Fusion

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 18 Data Fusion  Space Environmental products are utilized to produce a number of ‘data fusion’ products which translate the space environment into impact related output  Current efforts include: GPS Error and High Altitude Radiation maps, plus HF Illumination and D-Region Absorption products  Actively seeking other products including an enhance GPS Error product and selected capability from the Space Environmental Effects Fusion System (SEEFS)

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 19 Project Areas Algorithms

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 20 Algorithms  Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) Index:  AFWA is pursuing a capability to calculate Dst organically  DNXS is heavily involved in data acquisition and development of the required algorithm  Dst Prediction Algorithm: Involved in an effort to implement the UPOS developed Dst Prediction Algorithm  Integrated a UPOS developed Kp Algorithm  Working to integrate the UPOS forecasted Kp Algorithm

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 21 Project Areas Visualizations

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 22 Visualizations  DNXS works closely with elements in DNXT to develop and refine visualizations  Working closely in with WIDDS and GIS visualization efforts  Completing a project provide technical advice for future visualization of ionosonde data

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 23 Project Areas Verification / Metrics

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 24 Verification / Metrics  Current Capability:  Currently use UPOS developed verification program to verify indices forecasted by XOGX  DNXS has recently completed a rewrite of the software to align with current AFWA architecture  Future Needs: As modeling capability comes on line there is a need to develop an automated verification and metric tracking program  Will be a top priority of DNXS over the next year  Borrow heavily from the existing process in DNXM  Very little being done in the way of operation verification in space environment today  Will require true innovation to create an actionable program

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 25