Setting the Stage

Office Hours When – Today – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

THE HOUSE ELECTIONS

The Results GOP Gets – 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) – 30 of 42 Tossups – 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

THE SENATE

The Results No Decapitation of Reid No Biden Seat The Democrats Hold

Tea Party Candidates in the Senate A Mixed Bag Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI Losers-, DE, CO, NV

STRUCTURE, TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP Why the GOP Won

Structural Factors Timing Availability

Turnout Very Similar to 2006 A Smaller Electorate than 2008

Low Motivation from The Left Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue Card Check Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Public Option A Larger Stimulus Bill Immigration Reform Bringing the Troops Home

Who Voted GOP was more energized More conservative Older Whiter

Race and Age

Gender and Region

Partisanship and Ideology

The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years

The Nomination The First Step

Starting the Process You have to decide as many as 8 or 12 years in advance You have to begin your exploratory campaign 2-3 years before the general election The Reluctant do not win

You have to wait for your window You do not want to run against a popular president 1984, 1996

The Nomination Window: Not Your Turn You may not want to run against an 8 year Vice-President 1960, 1988, 2000

The Nomination Window: Spoiler You do not want to run against your party’s incumbent 1976, 1980

The Nomination Window: National Factors You Want National Trends to be in your favor 1964, 1952, 2008

The Nomination Window: Keeping your day job It is difficult to run for two offices at once You might go 0-2

A Candidate Who Says they aren’t running, just might..

2008 Was open for Both parties

The 2012 Window Obama’s 2008 victory meant the Democrats had to wait until For Republicans 2012 was wide open

The 2016 is likely to be wide-open for both parties again

CANDIDATES MATTER You Cannot Beat Someone with No One

Not all offices are created Equal

Presidents and Vice-Presidents Presidents have the best chance at nomination V-P’s are the default candidates In 2012 The GOP had Neither

U.S. Senators Advantages Disadvantages Before Obama, Harding and Kennedy only senators to go straight to the White House

Governors Advantages Disadvantages

House Members Who? Victims of the Permanent Campaign

Other Offices No Chance Anymore Provide a little fun

In 2012 Old Familiars Sat it out

The Class of 2010 The 2010 class wanted to wait Still to new to office

When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus Lose< Not Run< Win

The GOP Field in 2012 Presidential Jobs Governors – Perry – Romney – Huntsman Senators – Santorum Non-Presidential Jobs House Members – Gingrich – Bachmann – Paul Other – Herman Cain