Quality of current PM emission inventories Kristin Rypdal, Chair of Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections With input from Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA), Vigdis Vestreng (MSC-W) and Brinda Wachs (UNECE Secretariat)

Overview Emission estimates –Reporting requirements –Sources –Trends Completeness in reporting Uncertainties TFEIP work –PM task group –Emission Inventory Guidebook –Review –Guidelines revisions

Emission estimates – reporting requirements TSP, PM 10 and PM 2.5 are part of the EMEP emission reporting tables How mandatory? –Not linked to any Protocol –EB decision 2002/10 links reporting to Convention itself and specifically mentions PM (”should exchange available information on … data on emissions”) Conclusion: Weaker obligations than for main pollutants, but part of ”expected” reporting 29 of 33 Parties included data on at least one PM in 2005

Emission estimates – sources

Emission estimates – trends

Completeness

Uncertainties PM Scientific workshop in 2004 (EC JRC/TFEIP) –Methods are available for most sources, but has often not been developed into guidance –Methods are rarely available for fugitive sources Activity data: –Residential wood consumption and small-scale burning more uncertain than fossil fuel combustion. –Activity data to estimate fugitive sources can be unavailable Generally higher uncertain than for current inventories of the main pollutants –Can be improved over time

RAINS emission estimates for VOC vs. national inventories, 2000

RAINS emission estimates for PM 2.5 vs. national inventories, 2000

TFEIP work – PM task group Establishment of a PM Task Group under TFEIP to i.a. –Review the immediate requirements of modelers Chemical and size speciation Slow progress due to resource problems, but intends to conclude before September –Propose priorities for methodology development Nearly 2/3 of the active PM Task Group members represents emission inventory community with others coming from measurement field –No specific funding; relying on resources from other projects (spill-off)

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook The Guidebook does not appropriately cover PM methodologies A number of PM sources are missing in reporting formats and guidebook; several of them, however, relevant only for coarse particles –Landfills –Animal houses and crop production –Heavy construction works –Wood products (sawmills, particle-/fiberboard, plywood) –Coal production, handling and storage –Mineral ore mining processes (incl. handling and storage)

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.) Priorities have been identified –Small-scale and industrial combustion –Processes in iron and steel industries –Off-road sources –Residential waste combustion –Burning of agricultural residues –Some ”new sources” –Validation of factors across UNECE area Animal houses and crop production are under development Chapter on small combustion sources recently updated Progress is unfortunately slow with the current resources available….

TFEIP work – Emission Inventory Guidebook (cont.) May need new emission measurements (for some sources literature data scarce, old, not representative or simply unavailable) Natural PM emissions (wind blown dust, sea salt, volcanoes, biomass burning, pollen) will be addressed in the NatAir project (EU 6 th Framework Research programme) Focus on size speciated emissions, chemical composition has been so far a second priority

Methodology - technology

TFEIP work – review PM data reported are included in the Synthesis and Assessment to review consistency and comparability At present focus is on completeness and major inconsistencies in reporting –Reporting is at present not at a level that enables a review of quality from a scientific point of view

TFEIP work – Guidelines revisions Emission reporting guidelines will be revised in 2007 –Work starting up in 2006 Need to consider role of PM reporting in the revised Guidelines –Size species to be reported? –Chemical speciation available for review? –Status of reporting requirements Need for increase in clarity?

Conclusions Quality of PM emission data are not as good as for other main pollutants and few Parties report complete data Quality is expected to increase due to increase in experiences with reporting, policy focus and understanding of source characteristics TFEIP is working to improve methodology guidance over the next years –New resources may become available; driven by the current policy debate