Temperature controlling processes and the recent cooling in the northern Gulf of Alaska Markus Janout 1 Tom Weingartner 1 Tom Royer 2 Seth Danielson 1.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
El Niño. How do ocean currents affect weather and climate? Oceans store and transport heat. – High heat capacity – Stores and transports energy from the.
Advertisements

A summary of the Bering Strait mooring array – volume, heat and freshwater fluxes Jonathan Whitefield, Tom Weingartner (UAF) Rebecca Woodgate (UW) Thanks.
Temperature and salinity variability of the Atlantic Water in the Eastern Eurasian Basin between 1991 and 2011 Meri Korhonen R/V Akademik Fedorov, August.
Don’t Discount the Tropics “Challenges to our understanding of the general circulation: abrupt climate change” R. Seager and D.S. Battisti 2007 Laura Zaunbrecher.
Oceanographic Observations from the Inner Beaufort Sea Shelf Seth Danielson Tom Weingartner Jeremy Kasper David Leech Kevin Taylor Institute of Marine.
Chukchi/Beaufort Seas Surface Wind Climatology, Variability, and Extremes from Reanalysis Data: Xiangdong Zhang, Jeremy Krieger, Paula Moreira,
The influence of extra-tropical, atmospheric zonal wave three on the regional variation of Antarctic sea ice Marilyn Raphael UCLA Department of Geography.
The Faroe Current: T-S properties and volume, heat and salt transports Karin Margretha H. Larsen Bogi Hansen, Hjálmar Hátún, Svein Østerhus Extended Ellett.
Indirect Determination of Surface Heat Fluxes in the Northern Adriatic Sea via the Heat Budget R. P. Signell, A. Russo, J. W. Book, S. Carniel, J. Chiggiato,
Land And Sea Breezes Marine Layer Advection & Radiation Fog.
The Alaskan Coastal Current Presented by: Gerry Butrico.
The 1997/98 ENSO event. Multivariate ENSO Index Index is based on 6 parameters relevant to phase.
Vikram MehtaNASA SST Science Team Meeting, Seattle8 November 2010 Interannual to Decadal Variability of the West Pacific Warm Pool in Remote Sensing Based.
Thermohaline Circulation
Thermohaline Circulation (THC) By Ross Alter. What is it? “…that part of the ocean circulation which is driven by fluxes of heat and freshwater across.
The dominant periodicities are the same as those from astronomical calculations of changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters.
Ocean Response to Global Warming William Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Wallace Stegner Center March 3, 2006.
Anthropogenic ocean warming: A stress on ocean ecosystems David W. Pierce Tim P. Barnett Climate Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Distribution of zooplankton communities relative to hydrographic features in the northern Gulf of Alaska K. O. Coyle, S. R. Okkonen, A. I. Pinchuk School.
Effects of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems David Mountain US CLIVAR Science Symposium 14 July 2008.
The Physical Modulation of Seasonal Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Malcolm Scully Outline: 1)Background and Motivation 2)Role of Physical Forcing 3)Simplified.
Janelle Fleming Interdisciplinary Seminar September 16, 1998 The North Pacific Ocean event: A unique climate shift, natural decadal variability,
Introduction: Salinity primarily controls density on the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf and slope. Density variations are a result of winds and freshwater.
Ocean Currents.
Freshwater Variability on the Gulf of Alaska Shelf [ OS42A-01 ] Geoffrey Irving 1, Thomas J. Weingartner 1 Thomas C. Royer 2
Mode (Eighteen Degree) Water V.Y. Chow EPS Dec 2005.
Dynamic Climate An overview of Climate Oscillations.
Stratification on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf, Revisited C. Ladd 1, G. Hunt 2, F. Mueter 3, C. Mordy 2, and P. Stabeno 1 1 Pacific Marine Environmental.
Seasonal, Interannual, and Decadal Scale Freshwater Variability in the Alaska Coastal Current Thomas J. Weingartner 1, Seth L. Danielson 1, and Thomas.
Deep circulation and meridional overturning Steve Rintoul and many others ….
Ocean Currents.
Downscaling Future Climate Scenarios for the North Sea 2006 ROMS/TOMS Workshop, Alcalá de Henares, 6-8 November Bjørn Ådlandsvik Institute of Marine Research.
1) What is the variability in eddy currents and the resulting impact on global climate and weather? Resolving meso-scale and sub- meso-scale ocean dynamics.
Icebergs, Ice Shelves and Sea Ice: A ROMS Study of the Southwestern Ross Sea for Michael S. Dinniman John M. Klinck Center for Coastal Physical.
Factors contributing to variability in pCO 2 and omega in the coastal Gulf of Maine. J. Salisbury, D. Vandemark, C. Hunt, C. Sabine, S. Musielewicz and.
Seasonal variations in mean water column temperatures in the northern GOA (obtained from IMS GLOBEC website ). The temperature.
Ocean Climate Conditions during GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program (NEP) Long Term Observation Program (LTOP) Thomas C. Royer and Chester E. Grosch Center.
Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Systems in Large- Scale Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: A Review Young-oh Kwon et al.
Jamie Morison Polar Science Center University of Washington Seattle, Washington USA SEARCH Update ARCSS AHW Feb. 20, 2002.
Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales:
"The Gulf of Alaska Seward Line & 2006 Russell R. Hopcroft, Kenneth O. Coyle, Tomas J. Weigngartner, Terry E. Whitledge Institute.
PAPER REVIEW R Kirsten Feng. Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs Masatake.
Ocean Response to Global Warming/Global Change William Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Environmental Defense May 12, 2005 Possible changes in.
Vertical Diffusion: (orange arrows) Nitrate diffusion rates were calculated for the inner shelf by splitting the water column into three layers: the upper.
P recipitation extremes during in the continental United States Kenneth E. Kunkel Illinois State Water Survey Collaborators: Dave Easterling,
Model Forced by: NCEP winds only Model Forced by: NCEP winds Local Surface Heat Flux Mean Advection of T’ CalCOFI Observations Coastal.
Question of the Day Question: If you heat up a liquid, like water in a fish tank, can it hold more oxygen or less? How do you know? Answer: ……… Turn In:
Coastal Oceanography Outline Global coastal ocean Dynamics Western boundary current systems Eastern boundary current systems Polar ocean boundaries Semi-enclosed.
Recent Variability in Ocean Climate in the Scotia-Maine and Adjacent Regions Brian Petrie, Roger Pettipas, Charles Hannah Bedford Institute of Oceanography.
MICHAEL A. ALEXANDER, ILEANA BLADE, MATTHEW NEWMAN, JOHN R. LANZANTE AND NGAR-CHEUNG LAU, JAMES D. SCOTT Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)
Ocean current affect Climate. The temperature of an ocean current affects the temperature of the air that passes over it. For example, the warm North.
Quantifying the Mechanisms Governing Interannual Variability in Air-sea CO 2 Flux S. Doney & Ivan Lima (WHOI), K. Lindsay & N. Mahowald (NCAR), K. Moore.
Expected Changes in the Climate Forcing of Alaskan Waters in Late Summer/Early Fall Nicholas A. Bond 1 James E. Overland 2 and Muyin Wang 1 1 University.
Growth Rates of Euphausiids in the Northern Gulf of Alaska in A.I. Pinchuk *, R.R. Hopcroft, K.O. Coyle Institute of Marine Science, University.
Equatorial Atlantic Variability: Dynamics, ENSO Impact, and Implications for Model Development M. Latif 1, N. S. Keenlyside 2, and H. Ding 1 1 Leibniz.
Yi Xu, Robert Chant, and Oscar Schofiled Coastal Ocean Observation Lab
Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks
On the nature of winter cooling and the recent temperature shift on the northern Gulf of Alaska shelf Thomas Weingartner1, Markus Janout1, Seth Danielson1.
Climate change research in the Gulf of Alaska
Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Gulf of Alaska
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
Ken Coyle, Russ Hopcroft & Alexei Pinchuk
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
GAK Time Series Measurements Integrated Ecosystem Research Program
The 1997/98 ENSO event.
Ocean currents The gulf stream.
LT Ricardo Roman OC3570 March 7, 2006
2008 vs Winter Conditions in the Monterey Bay
Relationship Between NO3 and Salinity:
Freshwater Variability on the Gulf of Alaska Shelf [OS42A-01]
Presentation transcript:

Temperature controlling processes and the recent cooling in the northern Gulf of Alaska Markus Janout 1 Tom Weingartner 1 Tom Royer 2 Seth Danielson 1 Alaska Marine Science Symposium Anchorage, 19 January )Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks 2)Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia

… until conditions suddenly cooled in 2006/07 Coastal oceanography in the northern GOA dominated by wind- and freshwater-driven ACC Weingartner et al., 2005 May 2007 May 2008 Temperature Janout et al., in prep. Salinity May average Surface waters in the northern GOA warmed and freshened throughout the last 3 decades (Royer and Grosch, 2005) …

The cooling extended across the inner and middle shelf in springs of 2007 and 2008 Seward Line Temperature anomalies >100m Janout et al., in prep m

Recent northern GOA temperatures are the lowest since the early 1970’s GAK1 temperature anomalies Regime shift 1976/77

Temperature variability impacts all members of the GOA ecosystem … … therefore, we need to understand relevant processes and parameters, such as a)Air-sea heat flux b)Salinity stratification c)Advective heat flux Anderson et al early 1970’spresent See R. Hopcroft tomorrow morning on recent biological conditions along the Seward Line

Mean winter (Nov-Mar) anomalies Janout et al., in prep. Air Temperatures Coastal runoff m GAK1 spring temperatures Heat fluxes and runoff cooperate to promote deep cooling

The role of Runoff and Salinity stratification Janout et al., in prep. -low runoff in early winter -weak salinity stratification -deep oceanic cooling after atmospheric cooling events -large runoff in early winter -stronger salinity stratification -oceanic cooling not as deep 2006/ /08 Salinity is a critical parameter on temperature variability… Air temp. Runoff Salt Temp deep coolingnot as deep cooling

We discussed: -Air-sea fluxes (atmosphere) -Freshwater runoff/salinity (atmosphere/ocean) (explain 81% of variance (stepwise regression) in GAK1 spring temperatures) Next: -Advective (oceanic) heat contribution

Runoff r=0.68 p<0.05 Alongshore heat advection (in the ACC) Positive feedback mechanism (reduced heat advection likely contributed to recent cooling) Estimated contribution of alongshore heat advection to the northern GOA heat budget: ~10-30% (preliminary) cold conditions = low runoff = reduced alongshore flow = reduced heat transport Alongshore (geostrophic) flow

Conclusions : 1)Salinity stratification/freshwater runoff is a regulator on deep GAK1 temperatures 2)Early and late cooling events most effective to cause cold spring conditions 3)2007 cooling amplified by reduced alongshore heat transport (to be continued…)

Outlook for spring 2009: -GOA is currently entering its 3rd consecutive cold winter Prerequisites for deep cold spring 2009 are met (i.e. cold fall/early winter, strong cooling events in mid-winter) Temperature Salinity Dec.2008 Dec.mean Dec.2006

Near-future studies… Improve understanding and quantification of heat flux variability in the northern GOA -using met-buoys to compute air-sea fluxes to determine cross-shelf gradients in heat fluxes -with that knowledge, use Middleton Island met record (1948-present) to hindcast GAK1 ocean temperature record to 1948

Thank you! For info and data on GAK1: Questions? Funding was provided by: - North Pacific Research Board - Center for Global Change, IARC - Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council Dave Leech for braving wind & weather at GAK1 for a monthly CTD cast