Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the Bonn Agreement Area Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument BE-AWARE II Final.

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Presentation transcript:

Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the Bonn Agreement Area Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument BE-AWARE II Final Conference, November, Ronneby, Sweden

Overview Background Introduction to the different accident types Frequency of the accident types Spills from the different accident types Future scenario Regional differences Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Summary and Conclusions Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Background Task H Oil spills Overall objective: Apply the accident model to describe the: – Accident type – Location – Spill size – Spill substance Basis: Traffic model Cargo model Risk Reducing measures Accident statistics Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Background Accidents covered - Ship-ship collision model Node collisions Route collisions - Groundings - STS/bunkering operations/loading buoy/FPSO - Offshore platforms Operational spills Spills from collisions - Wind parks Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident types Ship-Ship collisions Route collisions The collision frequencies depend on: the length of the route segment the traffic intensity in each direction the length, breadth and speed of the ships the deviation of the ships from the route axis the causation probability Pc Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Head-on Overtaking

Accident types Ship-Ship collisions Node collisions The collision frequencies depend on: the traffic intensity in each direction the length, breadth and speed of the ships the crossing angle the causation probability Pc Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency, 2011 All types of accidents Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency All types of accidents Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency Dover Strait Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency All types of accidents German Bight Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 (t/year) All types of accidents All sizes of spills, the average spill is dominated by extremely large spills (long term average) Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents Dover Strait Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents German Bight Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents North Sea Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 Small spills <300t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills, 2011 Medium spills 300t-5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidentall spills, 2011 Large spills > 5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident frequency All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Changes: Windparks TSS Traffic - routes - vessel size - voyages Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidental spills All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Changes: Windparks TSS Traffic - routes - vessel size - voyages Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accidentall spills All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Small spills <300t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident spills All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Medium spills 300t-5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Accident spills All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Large spills >5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil TSS reduces risks significantly 2020

Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil VTS has significant effect on ships with no pilots 2020

Regional results Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2011 Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2020 Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2011 Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Regional results, 2020 Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

Methodology Summary and conclusion 1 Areas with high intensity traffic in narrow lanes gives large contributions when no TSS is applied Largest contributions to reduction of route collisions from TSS Largest contributor to node collisions at Dover Straight Not insignificant contributions from the operational spills from platforms Substantial regional differences in accidents and spills

Methodology Summary and conclusion 2 Substantial risk for spills from platforms (Ship-platform collisions, platform accidents, blow-out) Little risk for spills from wind farms (ship-Wind turbine collision) Development of risk on sub-regional level: SB4: More risk for collision, wind farms SB5: More risk for collision Impact of spills have not been evaluated (Be-Aware II)

Questions? Thank you beaware.bonnagreement.org