GOAL Of This Presentation Increase forecaster awareness and encourage use of aircraft data in the forecast process as aircraft data will continue to play.

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Presentation transcript:

GOAL Of This Presentation Increase forecaster awareness and encourage use of aircraft data in the forecast process as aircraft data will continue to play an increasing role as a supplemental upper air data source. Increase forecaster awareness and encourage use of aircraft data in the forecast process as aircraft data will continue to play an increasing role as a supplemental upper air data source.

Airports with TAMDAR data Radiosonde- blue TAMDAR - green TAMDAR Soundings fill many of the gaps in the current upper air network! ~ 900 soundings per day Large hubs like MSP ~ 100 soundings/day!

A Winter Example - Recent Example Illustrating Utility of Regional Aircraft Data - March 16, 2006 Winter Storm (Very Preliminary!) Winter Storm Warnings for parts of SE Minnesota, SW-SE Wisconsin and NE Iowa (right). Winter Storm Warnings for parts of SE Minnesota, SW-SE Wisconsin and NE Iowa (right). Models forecasting anywhere from.50 to 1.15 inches precipitation. Models forecasting anywhere from.50 to 1.15 inches precipitation. Dynamics strong…but gulf moisture essentially closed off. Despite initial dry air mass, models suggested adequate moisture would become available. Dynamics strong…but gulf moisture essentially closed off. Despite initial dry air mass, models suggested adequate moisture would become available. Winter Storm Warnings

Very Preliminary Verification In Wisconsin alone only 9/35 of the warned counties verified (FAR 74 %). Warning Criteria Met

March 15, 2006 Dry airmass in place over central U.S.

March 16, hours later System encountered deep dry airmass as it moved across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Snowbands eroded as they moved into northeast Wisconsin

Some Initial Thoughts Following the Event Model forecast moisture and QPF overdone. Model forecast moisture and QPF overdone. Was there a lack of forecaster SA with respect to the amount of moisture actually available to system? Was there a lack of forecaster SA with respect to the amount of moisture actually available to system? Could the Winter Storm Warning FAR been lower had forecasters been more aware of the limited moisture actually available to the system? Could the Winter Storm Warning FAR been lower had forecasters been more aware of the limited moisture actually available to the system?

For More Information on TAMDAR and Other Aircraft Data Sources TAMDAR Website: TAMDAR Website:

References TAMDAR Website: TAMDAR Website: ERSL/GSD AMDAR Aircraft Interactive Java Website: ERSL/GSD AMDAR Aircraft Interactive Java Website: Bedka, S.T., et al., 2006: TAMDAR Thermodynamic and Dynamic State Validation Using Rawindsonde Data from TAVE. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.12 Bedka, S.T., et al., 2006: TAMDAR Thermodynamic and Dynamic State Validation Using Rawindsonde Data from TAVE. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.12 Petersen, R.A. and W.R. Moninger, 2006: Assessing Two Different Commercial Aircraft-based Sensing Systems. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.8 Petersen, R.A. and W.R. Moninger, 2006: Assessing Two Different Commercial Aircraft-based Sensing Systems. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster 2.8 Moninger, W.A., et al., 2006: Automated Weather Reports from Aircraft: TAMDAR and the U.S. AMDAR Fleet. Extended Abstracts, 12 th Conf on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 4.2. Moninger, W.A., et al., 2006: Automated Weather Reports from Aircraft: TAMDAR and the U.S. AMDAR Fleet. Extended Abstracts, 12 th Conf on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 4.2. Brusky, E.S. and P.G. Kurimski, 2006: The Utility of TAMDAR Regional Aircraft Sounding Data in Short-Term Convective Forecasting. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9.5. Brusky, E.S. and P.G. Kurimski, 2006: The Utility of TAMDAR Regional Aircraft Sounding Data in Short-Term Convective Forecasting. Extended Abstracts, 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9.5. Brusky E.S., S.P. Luchs and R.A. Petersen, 2006: A Preliminary Comparison of TAMDAR Aircraft and NWS Radiosonde Data. 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster Brusky E.S., S.P. Luchs and R.A. Petersen, 2006: A Preliminary Comparison of TAMDAR Aircraft and NWS Radiosonde Data. 10 th AMS IOAS-AOLS, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Poster Davies, J.M., 2005: Tornadoes Associated with Small SRH or High LCL Environments. 4th Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium, March 2005.