Enabling Results: Monitoring and Evaluation in the U.S. ENERGY STAR Program September 28, 2012Ashley M. King Environment Officer

What is ENERGY STAR? Largest US energy efficiency program Voluntary labeling system for home products, commercial and residential buildings, and industrial facilities Binary label targeting top 10% in energy performance. Administered by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy (DOE)

R&D Building Codes and Standards Increasing Energy Efficiency (Metrics) Number of Unit Sales ENERGY STAR Market Transformation : Complements Other Policies

Purpose of EPA’s ENERGY STAR Performance Management Program to allow the EPA staff to better manage program resources to demonstrate to internal and external stakeholders that the ENERGY STAR program is achieving environmental results: Energy saved Greenhouse gas emissions avoided

EPA’s Program Management Structure Three teams (approximately 80 total staff): Product Labeling Commercial and Industrial Buildings Residential Homes Annually, each team conducts: Business planning process Program impact evaluation Each team has its own logic model, monitoring plan, and program impact methodology. All program impact results account for: Only attribution above business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios double-counting with EPA or other programs free-ridership Overall, 9 full-time employees and approximately 4% of total program budget are reserved for performance management.

Resources Activities Outputs Assessment/ Intermediate Long term Reassessment Outcomes Outcomes - Budget - Staff Program Administration – Up to date product lists -- Up to date partner information -- Data collection on product shipments Build Supply of Efficient products -- Add new products (using established guidelines) Revise Product Specs -- as appropriate (using established guidelines) Ensure Quality -- require proper use of logo in ads -- spot test products Build Demand -- Outreach -- robust web-based info -- direct consumer efforts -- key product strategies -- partner by partner assistance -- coordinated national campaigns -- product procurement Evaluation -- consumer awareness, understanding, etc -- progress assessments Products -- # product categories -- # product models -- # product sales (annual) -- market penetration Partners -- # manufacturers -- # retailers -- # program sponsors -- # states and others Outreach -- # web visitors -- key visitor interests -- # media impressions -- # media impressions by key strategy and product Compliance/Quality -- # advertising clips -- # companies advertising -- # violations -- # companies with violations -- Indication of manufacturer QA/QC issues -- lighting fixture violations -- Indication of retailer issues Brand Information -- level of consumer awareness, understanding, etc Benefits Projections -- estimates by product of future sales/benefits based on continued efforts Annual review of key outputs against program near, mid, and long term goals for program and key product areas and revision of strategies, as appropriate Energy Savings -- in kWh -- by product area -- program level Reductions in GHG emissions -- in mmtce -- by product area -- program level Investment in technology -- in $$ -- program level Net Savings on Energy bills -- in $$ -- program level Program Cost- effectiveness Behavioral Change Improved Energy Efficiency Policies for Product Efficiency Cleaner Air Reduced Risk of Climate Change Improved Public Health Cost Savings Institutionaliz ed Behavior Change

Part 1: The Annual Business Plan Assess how the program is performing relative to near, mid, and long term goals Identify opportunities for saving energy (i.e. what are the new specifications that are needed, which need to be revised?) Identify key opportunities for boosting outreach and leveraging partners (outreach campaigns, new state policies, etc.) Identify key needs for ensuring program integrity Identify priority areas in improving performance management Allocate budget resources according to needs identified and revise goals accordingly.

Future goals higher than GPRA goals to ensure goals met/ address future uncertainties Continuing Priority Areas: Office equipment (home and work) Consumer electronics (and power supplies) Residential HVAC Residential lighting Commercial food service Goals Estimates of Reductions to 2020 by sector: Commercial: ~12 mmtce Residential: ~20 mmtce Projections (for existing products) Long-term Goals

Electronics: TVs, Office Equipment, Power adapters –About 6% of U.S national electricity flows through adapters -- about $17 billion/yr and ENERGY STAR models can save 35% –TVs are growing area of energy use –Office equipment growing: ENERGY STAR offers 5 to 60% savings Residential Heating and cooling –Almost 50% of residential energy bill of $180 million per year –ENERGY STAR products offer 15 to 20 percent savings over standard models –Big issue for utilities – peak power – reliability Residential lighting –10% of average home energy bill –ENERGY STAR products require one-third the electricity –Cost-effective potential of $8 billion annually Commercial kitchens –Energy intensive, across many commercial buildings –Allow product bundles –Address water savings – which is of growing stakeholder interest The Home Energy Bill

Part 2: Annual Program Impact Evaluation Basic Formula: Products Sold x Savings per Product = Total Savings Products Sold (above BAU): –Collecting annual sales data on ENERGY STAR qualifying products from participating product manufacturers as a condition of partnership. –Using established BAU baselines for annual product sales for each product category. These baselines use historic data and expert judgment, and they typically reflect increasing market shares for efficient products and increasing product efficiencies over time. Savings Per Product (annual energy savings) –Assumes that ENERGY STAR products just meet the ENERGY STAR thresholds, –Assumes the typically purchased product meets minimum efficiency standards where standards exist or uses the average energy use for the product category where there are no standards.

How are these results used? Annual business planning process Fulfill US government-wide performance reporting requirements (GPRA Act 1993) International reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Communicated to external stakeholders via the ENERGY STAR Annual Report

In the end, what does this allow EPA to say about ENERGY STAR? In 2010, ENERGY STAR helped Americans: –Save 240 billion kilowatt hours, equal to about 5% of US electricity demand –Avoid 195 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions, equal to annual emissions of 38 million US vehicles –Save more than $20 billion dollars on their energy bills Source: 2010 ENERGY STAR Annual Report,