Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

GEMS Kick- off MPI -Hamburg CTM - IFS interfaces GEMS- GRG Review of meeting in January and more recent thoughts Johannes Flemming.

Advertisements

NEMS/GFS Overview Mark Iredell, Software Team Lead.

1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP Atmospheric Constituent Prediction Capability – Status, Progress, and Observational Requirements Ho-Chung Huang, Sarah Lu, Jeff McQueen.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Overview of NEMS infrastructure Jun Wang Mark Iredell NEMS-NMMB tutorial April 1,

1 The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP Thomas Black Mark Iredell Hann-Ming Henry Juang NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP/ Environmental Modeling Center 19 th Conference.

Air Quality-Climate Interactions Aijun Xiu Carolina Environmental Program.

1 ESMF in Production at NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006 NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather,

The Next-Generation NCEP Production Suite EMC Senior Staff NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems.

1 NGGPS Dynamic Core Requirements Workshop NCEP Future Global Model Requirements and Discussion Mark Iredell, Global Modeling and EMC August 4, 2014.

Regional Air Quality Modeling Progress at NOAA/NWS/NCEP

1 Expanded Ozone Forecast Guidance for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability NWS/NCEP/EMC & NOAA/OAR/ARL - EPA September 18, 2007.

Evaluation of Real-time Air Quality Forecasts from WRF-NMM/CMAQ and NMMB/CMAQ Using Discover-AQ P-3B Airborne Measurements Youhua Tang 1,2, Jeffery T.

Effects of climate change on future wildfire and its impact on regional air quality Hyun Cheol Kim, Dae-Gyun Lee, and Daewon Byun 1 Institute for Multidimensional.

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Carolina Environmental Programs Emissions and meteorological Aspects of the 2001 ICAP Simulation Adel Hanna,

1 NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEP/EMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006 NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather, and ocean services.

Tianfeng Chai 1,2, Alice Crawford 1,2, Barbara Stunder 1, Roland Draxler 1, Michael J. Pavolonis 3, Ariel Stein 1 1.NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College.

Chapter 2: Satellite Tools for Air Quality Analysis 10:30 – 11:15.

Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting Jeff McQueen*, Pius Lee*, Marina Tsildulko*, G. DiMego*, B. Katz* R. Mathur,T. Otte, J. Pleim, J.

Next Gen AQ model Need AQ modeling at Global to Continental to Regional to Urban scales – Current systems using cascading nests is cumbersome – Duplicative.

CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) pollutant Concentration change horizontal advection vertical advection horizontal dispersion vertical diffusion.

WRF-VIC: The Flux Coupling Approach L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory BioEarth Project Kickoff Meeting April 11-12, 2011 Pullman, WA.

1 Improvements to Ozone Forecast Guidance for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability NWS/NCEP/EMC & NOAA/OAR/ARL - EPA October 2, 2007.

A Case Study Using the CMAQ Coupling with Global Dust Models Youhua Tang, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Ho-Chun Huang, Sarah Lu, Dongchul Kim Scientific Applications.

Recent Status of NEMS/NMMB- AQ Development Youhua Tang 1, Jeffery T. McQueen 2, Sarah Lu 1, Thomas L. Black 2, Zavisa Janjic 2, Mark D. Iredell 2, Carlos.

A Modeling Investigation of the Climate Effects of Air Pollutants Aijun Xiu 1, Rohit Mathur 2, Adel Hanna 1, Uma Shankar 1, Frank Binkowski 1, Carlie Coats.

Trajectory validation using tracers of opportunity such as fire plumes and dust episodes Narendra Adhikari March 26, 2007 ATMS790 Seminar (Dr. Pat Arnott)

Overview of NEMS infrastructre Mark Iredell NEMS-NMMB tutorial February 18,

Using MODIS fire count data as an interim solution for estimating biomass burning emission of aerosols and trace gases Mian Chin, Tom Kucsera, Louis Giglio,

Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEP using Satellite-based Smoke Emissions Global Aerosol Forecasting at NCEP using Satellite-based Smoke Emissions Sarah.

Modeling volcanic and marine emissions for Hawaii Air Quality Forecast 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory1 Daniel Tong*, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Mo Dan,

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Current Status  Framework is in place and algorithms are being integrated.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but.

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 1/11 JCSDA Activities and Plans NWS overview & plans Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Major U.S. High-Resolution Mesoscale Models (all non-hydrostatic ) WRF-ARW (developed at NCAR) NMM-B (developed.

Office of Research and Development Atmospheric Modeling Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory WRF-CMAQ 2-way coupled system: Part I David Wong,

Comparison of CMAQ Lightning NOx Schemes and Their Impacts Youhua Tang 1,2, Li Pan 1,2, Pius Lee 1, Jeffery T. McQueen 4, Jianping Huang 4,5, Daniel Tong.

Slides for NUOPC ESPC NAEFS ESMF. A NOAA, Navy, Air Force strategic partnership to improve the Nation’s weather forecast capability Vision – a national.

Impact of Meteorological Inputs on Surface O 3 Prediction Jianping Huang 9 th CMAS Annual Conference Oct. 12, 2010, Chapel, NC.

1 Air Quality : National AQ Forecasting Capability surface O 3 and PM 2.5 Presented By: Pius Lee (OAR/ARL) Contributors: Jeffery McQueen, Jianping Huang,

1 National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Status M. Iredell and EMC Staff.

THE MODELS-3 COMMUNITY MULTI- SCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL: 2002 RELEASE – NEW FEATURES Jonathan Pleim, Francis Binkowski, Robin Dennis, Brian Eder,

Using combined Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling approaches to improve particulate matter estimations in the Eastern US. Ariel F. Stein 1, Rohit Mathur.

Comparison of NOAA/NCEP 12km CMAQ Forecasts with CalNEX WP-3 Measurements Youhua Tang 1,2, Jeffery T. McQueen 2, Jianping Huang 1,2, Marina Tsidulko 1,2,

1 Agenda Topic: NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Infrastructure Presented By: Mark Iredell (NWS/NCEP)

NGAC verification NGAC verification is comparing NGAC forecast (current AOT only) with observations from ground-based and satellite measurements and with.

Air Resources Laboratory 1 Comprehensive comparisons of NAQFC surface and column NO 2 with satellites, surface, and field campaign measurements during.

1 Using Satellite Data to Improve Operational Atmospheric Constituents Forecasting Capabilities Shobha Kondragunta, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Xiaoyang Zhang, UMD.

Assessment of aerosol direct effects on surface radiation in the northern hemisphere using two-way WRF-CMAQ model Jia Xing, Jonathan Pleim, Rohit Mathur,

Dust aerosols in NU-WRF – background and current status Mian Chin, Dongchul Kim, Zhining Tao.

Regional Chemical Modeling in Support of ICARTT Topics:  How good were the regional forecasts?  What are we learning about the emissions?  What are.

1 RAQMS-CMAQ Atmospheric Chemistry Model Data for the TexAQS-II Period : Focus on BCs impacts on air quality simulations Daewon Byun 1, Daegyun Lee 1,

___________________________________________________________________________CMAQ Basics ___________________________________________________Community Modeling.

Global Aerosol Forecasting System Applications to Houston/Costa Rica Aura Validation Experiments Arlindo da Silva Global Modeling and Assimilation Office,

1 NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Progress and Plans October 17, 2006 Paula M. Davidson 1, Nelson Seaman 1, Jeff McQueen 1, Rohit.

Modeling the emission, transport, and optical properties of Asian dust storms using coupled CAM/CARMA model Lin Su and Owen B. Toon Laboratory for Atmospheric.

The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP Mark Iredell and the NEMS group NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center June 12, 2014.

Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy Jonathan Pleim, Shawn Roselle,

1 “Air Quality Applications of Satellite Data” Shobha Kondragunta NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research Aura Science Team Meeting,

Global modeling and assimilation – Earth System Modeling ESRL Theme Presentation 2:00 – 3:30 PM, Wed 7 May :00Intro to Earth System modeling, FIM.

Forecasting smoke and dust using HYSPLIT. Experimental testing phase began March 28, 2006 Run daily at NCEP using the 6Z cycle to produce a 24- hr analysis.

Transport Simulation of the April 1998 Chinese Dust Event Prepared by: Bret A. Schichtel And Rudolf B. Husar Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend.

On the Verification of Particulate Matter Simulated by the NOAA-EPA Air Quality Forecast System Ho-Chun Huang 1, Pius Lee 1, Binbin Zhou 1, Jian Zeng 6,

Project Management Approach

Potential use of TEMPO AOD & NO2 retrievals to support wild fire plume & O3 & PM2.5 forecast in National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) Pius.

Model Future: Nesting with Regional Models

Estimating volcanic ash emissions by assimilating satellite observations with the HYSPLIT dispersion model Tianfeng Chai1,2, Alice Crawford1,2, Barbara.

WRF-GC: on-line two-way coupling of WRF and GEOS-Chem

NMMB-DUST developments

A brief introduction to NEMS

Presentation transcript:

Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMego NWS/NCEP/EMC Ken Schere and Rohit Mathur NOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA Georg Grell and Steve Peckham NOAA/OAR/GSD Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel Stein NOAA/OAR/ARL Arlindo DaSilva, Mian Chin NASA/GSFC …

Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems PollutantRegionModelEmissions Anthropogenic Chemistry (O3, experimental aerosols) CONUS, O-CONUS NAM-CMAQ (12 km, 48 hrs) NEI 2005 inventories extrapolated for current year Wild-fire smoke (visible smoke and total concentrations) CONUS, O-CONUS NAM-HYSPLIT (15 km, 48 hrs) NESDIS HMS fire locations USFS BlueSkies emissions Dust (Developmental PM, 5 size bins) GlobalGFS-GOCART (100 km, 48 hours) 1 degree land use Volcanic Ash (Visible ash plume) VAAC -DC North American Regions GFS-HYSPLITNESDIS volcano location and release height

GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast

In-Line Chem Advantages Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model –Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no horizontal and vertical interpolation) –Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale transport –No interpolation in time Easy handling (Data management) Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF  National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease

ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Application Driver ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) GOCART aerosol chemistry, smoke, dust, ash Physics (1,2,3) Coupler Dynamics (1,2) GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid. GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1. GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging. AM

ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Application Driver ESMF* Compliant Regional System: NEMS Inline coupling * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) CB05/AERO-4 anthro, HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke, dust, ash emissions NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid. NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition. Physics (1,2,3) Dynamics (1,2) AM

Planned Initial NEMS Pollutant Options Gas-PhaseAerosols Global Anthro: EDGAR, GEIA Simplified NO3 GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke, sea-salt,volcanic ash Regional Anthro: SMOKE w/ BEIS CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro Natural: USFS/HMS Wild fires, Volcanic ash GOCART/ HYSPLIT smoke, dust, ash Pollutant Component Emissions Component

2.5 days5 days NMM-B Global InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic NCEP/EMC

48 96 NMM-B Regional InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC

NEMS Pollutant Plans Loose Coupled: Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years) –Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format –Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component –NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition –Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years) –Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS) –Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash –Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D) Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition –Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion –Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent and convective mixing –Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol feedbacks on meteorology

Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs USGS volcano types to improve emission rates Improved plume height estimation –Hysplit ensemble minimization – satellite estimates Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation

Operational Upgrades Development phase (0-2 years) –Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other research collaborators –Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems Experimental testing ( 2-3 years) –Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center –Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of interested forecasters Operational Implementation (3 years) –Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/ current operational system –Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing requirements –Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS