The problem isn’t just the bridges, or the freight system, it’s about Oregon’s economy and quality of life. Oregon Modeling Steering Committee OREGON DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION December 11, 2002 OREGON ECONOMIC & BRIDGE OPTIONS

Restricted/Cracked* Bridges - Today * Medium and high crack density Local Bridges State Bridges Ford’s Bridge Cole’s Bridge Sauvie Island Bridge

Bridge Deterioration would initially Restrict Trucks over 80,000 lbs 1997 Oregon Commodity Flow Truck Survey

MODELING STATEWIDE ECONOMIC IMPACTS Input: Load Limit bridge links in Transport Network Define industry production of “Heavy Goods” Modeled Impacts: Flows: Heavy Trucks detoured - OR- Heavy Trucks lighten loads to avoid restrictions Costs: Increased Shipping costs Increased Production costs Location:Change industry location to reduce costs (in/out of state) Loss of supporting service industries

Initial Model Runs Driven by Bridge Task Force No US97 alternative Functional classification-based Little link to bridge costs

Model Results Statewide Impacts Lighter trucks avoid restrictions, increase truck trips Economic impact of up to $3B in 2025, $17B over 25-years Potential employment loss of 17,000 by 2025 Regional Impacts High shipping costs benefit locations near borders & urban areas Impacts those with highest shipping costs already (heavy goods industry, remote areas) Low shipping costs decentralizes activity Any investment improves state economy Investment location has regional consequences Portland/Willamette Valley - 75% of state production Livability Impacts Detours increased truck miles on unsuitable roads All options increase trucks in habitat/AQ areas

Regional Production Relative to Current Mobility Option TOTALAGFFWOODTECHSERV Allow Deterioration Fix Interstates + Freight Routes +Key Local Routes

Production - All Options

Iterative Model Acceptance BOT Economic SubTeam (October) –Skepticism about unknown model results  Bury Model Results in Appendix Director’s Office (Early November) –Economic/Community impacts are paramount –Use absolute not relative model results –Limit investment options  3 Futures/Courses of Action up-front Flat Funding Flat Funding/Buy Time (proactive posting) Invest Now/Fix All

Regional Production

Local Impacts

Iterative Model Acceptance Met with Trucking Industry Representatives (November) –Concerned with I-5 construction impacts/delays –Backbone Freight Route for all trucks (quick/low cost) BOT Team (Late November) –No recommendation? –No US97 alternative? –Add real-world stories  Create Recommendation with US97 staging for I-5 work  Model one of many tools that led to recommendation

Draft Recommendation Staged Bridge Investment –Open E-W, N-S Heavy Truck Routes ASAP (Replace on I-84, US97, S22) –Incrementally address I-5 (Replace to S58 and link to US97, etc.) –Routes with high cost/benefit –Fix Bridges with unacceptable detours Maintain other key routes, restrict as needed Selected restrictions to extend bridge life

Use of Model Identify the range of impacts –Fix All Bridges (Maximum investment) –Allow Deterioration –Proactively Restrict All Bridges –TBD -- restrict below 64,000 lbs. Statewide Economic Impacts –Damping of State Economy –Employment/Population –Importance of Portland/Willamette Valley connections Sub-State economic trends - industries and regions Temper “sky is falling” approach  Local and impending statewide “crisis”

Lessons Learned New Tool takes time to be accepted/used Model should generate investment options, rather than support a priori expectations Model validation/credibility is critical Need to model “crisis” Model is one of many inputs to process Need time to digest/understand model findings Relative measures difficult to understand

Role of OMSC OMSC Credibility/validation of model structure Past efforts using model OMSC Bridge Sub-Committee Review/assist with model inputs/assumptions Interagency review/comment on model output Recommendations –Importance of Net Present Value and lifecycle analysis –Model output is an incomplete cost-benefit analysis –Suggest/prioritize additional model runs

OVERALL TIMELINE ODOT: Inspect bridges bi-annually or more often cracks identified OTC, Governor, Legislature: Select a strategy to address problem Bridge Task Force: Validate Problem, Emphasize Corridors June 2002 ODOT: Economic and Bridge Options Report Draft: Nov 02 Final: Jan 03 ODOT: Develop implementation strategy. Implement. Track deterioration & priorities. Dec 02 Jan 03 OTC

Extra Graphics

Initial Model Runs